Tag: Turkey
Pandora’s box opens also in Serbia
Yesterday’s House subcommittee hearing on Kosovo and Serbia focused mainly on Chair Rohrabacher’s strong advocacy of self-determination for everyone. Why, he asked repeatedly in many different ways, should we force people to live in a state where they don’t want to live? Isn’t self-determination fundamental to Americans? Why should we not want it for others? What is sacrosanct about borders drawn by dictators, monarchs and colonialists? Why shouldn’t everyone be able to choose the state in which they live? Why would we give that choice to Kosovars and not to others?
He was joined in these refrains by at least three of the four experts on the non-Administration panel of witnesses. I was the most vigorous of the dissenters, helped along the way by Democratic Representatives Engel and Keating. Any newbie watching the show might have thought that there is a real debate on this issue in Washington, and maybe even a partisan divide between Republicans who advocate self-determination and Democrats who want to trap people as minorities in states they do not want to live in.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Representative Rohrabacher is an outlier, not a trend. There is no real debate in Washington, where both Republicans and Democrats generally prefer the traditional position in favor of state sovereignty except where there is mutual agreement to divorce (e.g., Czechoslovakia, the breakup of the Soviet Union and Sudan’s partition). Even then, the preference is definitively in favor of changing the status of a pre-existing boundary (from an internal one to an international border) rather than moving it to accommodate ethnic differences.
Why is this the case? To make a long story short: it saves lives. Trying to move a border to accommodate ethnic differences is never simple or straightforward. There is always someone on the wrong side of the line. That someone will either try to move the line again, or the majority on his side of the line will try to move him, or both. This is how ethnic cleansing begins. It ends in death and destruction, sometimes on a genocidal scale.
Why then did some of us advocate Kosovo independence, which amounts to partition of Serbia?
First, it is important to note that the boundary between the former Yugoslav province of Kosovo and Serbia was not moved. In the eyes of those who recognized Kosovo’s sovereignty, the status of the boundary was changed to an international border, but it is drawn where Tito left it. This is not because we think there is something sacrosanct about former Yugoslavia’s internal borders, but simply because redrawing it is problematic and likely to lead to conflict. There are something like 10,000 Albanians who would like to return to homes north of the Ibar river. There are more Serbs who live south of the Ibar than north of it. They don’t want to leave–they’ve proven that by staying this long. If the border were redrawn at the Ibar explicitly to separate Serbs and Albanians, you’d have a lot of unhappy people unable to return or retain their homes.
Second, there really was no choice. UN Security Council resolution 1244 removed Kosovo (in principle all of it, including the territory north of the Ibar) from Serbian sovereignty in 1999. From then until Kosovo declared independence in February 2008, Serbia made no effort whatsoever to “make unity attractive,” in the phrase used in Sudan. In the meanwhile, the UN was relatively successful in building up democratically validated institutions in Pristina, which now enjoy substantial but not universal Serb participation.
When Belgrade approved the new Serbian constitution in 2006, it needed a “double majority” (50% of those voting had to approve and 50% of registered voters had to vote). It got the second majority only by crossing off the Kosovo Albanian names on the voter registration lists, thus denying Kosovars the right to block adoption of the constitution by not voting in the referendum. This for me was the last straw. It meant that Belgrade did not regard the Kosovars as citizens of Serbia. Therefore they had to be citizens of a different state. That state is now the Republic of Kosovo.
The Kosovo situation is not, as US government officials often claim, “unique.” There are certainly parallels and worse in Kurdistan. But the Kurds, for their own reasons, have not yet chosen to declare independence, knowing full well that the US, Turkey and Iran lean heavily against. That 17% of Iraq’s oil revenue also weighs heavily against. The fact that the boundary between Kurdistan and the rest of Iraq is not yet agreed would make a Kurdistan declaration of independence a sure-fire way to start a debilitating conflict in a country that is now the world’s third largest oil exporter. That conflict would likely spread to “Eastern” Kurdistan (which is inside Iran) and to Turkey.
Redrawing the border between Kosovo and Serbia would likewise ignite regional conflicts. Albanian nationalists would see it as triggering their right to unite with Albanian communities in Serbia, Macedonia and Albania, a right explicitly denied in Kosovo’s constitution. Republika Srpska, the Serb-dominated 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina, would seek either independence or union with Serbia.
That is enough to deter me, but I’ve saved the worst for last: Serbia itself would be put at risk. Its Vojvodina province, or part of it, might well be inspired to seek independence or union with Hungary. Bosniak-majority municipalities in Sandjak would certainly want to join Bosnia, never mind that they are not contiguous with it.
I trust this “Pandora’s box” scenario is one the international community will choose not to trigger by redrawing Kosovo’s borders. But I fully anticipate that Albanians in southern Serbia, Bosniaks in Sandjak, Hungarians in Vojvodina and perhaps other minorities elsewhere in Serbia will start asking for the same rights Serbia has gotten in the Belgrade/Pristina agreement for the Serb-majority municipalities in northern Kosovo. I’ll be interested to hear whether those who want everyone treated equally will advocate for them, or side with Belgrade when it denies them the right to govern themselves, including choosing their own police chief and having a special appeals court panel.
Pandora’s box opens also in Serbia. Best to keep it closed.
PS: Here are the videos of the hearing.
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Peace Picks April 22-26:
1. Between Turkish Sunnis and Iranian Shia Influences: Islamic Revival in Azerbaijan
Date and Time: April 22nd 2013, 4:00-5:00 pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson Center
1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: Bayram Balci
Description: Azerbaijan has historically experienced three main influences, Russian secularism, Ottoman Sunnism and Iranian Shiism. In the two decades since the end of the Soviet Union, Azerbaijan is once again a space of competition between different religious influences. An Islamic revival underway in Azerbaijan has awakened the old cleavage between Shia and Sunni Islam.
Bayram Balci contends that the Islamic influences from Iran (Shia) and from Turkey (Sunni) are recreating new dividing lines between Azerbaijani Shia and Sunni Muslims. In his talk he will analyze the various aspects of Shia and Sunni revival, including the roles played by Turkey and Iran, and how Azerbaijan is reacting to these new religious cleavages.
Register for this event here: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/between-turkish-sunnis-and-iranian-shia-influences-islamic-revival-azerbaijan
2. The Kurdish Initiative v2.0: Can Turkey Resolve it This Time?
Date and Time: April 23rd 2013, 12:00-1:30 pm
Location: Georgetown University
37 St NW and O St NW, Washington, DC
Intercultural Center 241
Speakers: Hamid Akin Unver
Description: Emerging from the ashes of a similar attempt in 2009, Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has launched a more ambitious process in late-2012 towards the peaceful resolution of its most fundamental problem: the Kurdish question. The ‘new deal’ touches upon almost all of the taboo issues of the question, including the disarmament and disbanding of the PKK, formulating a new definition of citizenship in the new Constitution and easing the imprisonment terms of the organization’s dreaded leader, Abdullah Öcalan. But what is different this time? What led to this new process and can it work? What are the potential opportunities and pitfalls? Will the new process spill-over to Syria and Iraq, and how will it change the dynamics of the region’s power dynamics?
Register for this event here: http://unver.eventbrite.com/
3. How Turkey’s Islamists Fell Out of Love with Iran: The Near Future of Turkish-Iranian Relations
Date and Time: April 23rd 2013, 3:00-4:00 pm
Location: Woodrow Wilson Center
1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: Hamid Akin Unver
Description: Turkish-Iranian relations have long been characterized by ideological polarity. Ever since the Ottoman expansion into the Levant in the early sixteenth century and the Safavid Empires acceptance of Shiism as the official imperial religion, relations between these two empires have been defined along the prime schism in Islam. From 1520 to 1920s this schism defined Ottoman-Safavid relations. Akin Unver argues that it was only during the modernist-revolutionary period of Ataturk and Shah Pahlavi that Iran and Turkey established good relations on secular-modernist lines, which defined the course of the relationship until the Islamic Revolution.
After the 1979 revolution, Irans Islamist regime emerged as the clear anti-thesis of a secular Turkey and two countries relationship was only sustained by political Islamists on both sides. According to Unver, this 1979-2010 Islamist connection is also being reversed by the sectarian faultlines unearthed by the Arab Spring. Irans rapid fall from grace with Turkish Islamists is one of the most important recent structural shifts in the Middle East, Unver suggests. Such a break is far from marginal and yields several important points for consideration.
This shift, Unver argues, validates the Ataturk- Pahlavi example, which shows that detente in Turkish-Iranian relations can only happen when both countries are ruled by a secular-modernist regime. If either countrys ruling government has an Islamist identity, relations can only improve to the extent dictated by the Ottoman-Safavid divide. If Islamism dictates both countries policies, then strategic conflict is inevitable, and the Sunni-Shiite historical memories and symbolism related to Karbala are evoked by both sides.
Register for this event here: http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/how-turkey’s-islamists-fell-out-love-iran-the-near-future-turkish-iranian-relations
4. Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards is turning Theocracy into Military Dictatorship
Date and Time: April 23rd 2013, 4:30 pm
Location: American Enterprise Institute
1150 17th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Ali Alfoneh, Frederick W. Kagan- , Mehdi Khalaji, Karim Sadjadpour
Description: Iran is currently experiencing the most important change since the revolution of 1979: the regime in Tehran, traditionally ruled by the Shia clergy, is transforming into a military dictatorship dominated by the officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). As IRGC commanders have infiltrated Iran’s political, economic, and cultural spheres, they have eschewed diplomatic norms and left few policy options for the US other than to unsuccessfully contain the threat. Is Washington prepared to tailor its strategy based on an evolving Iranian power structure? What will further advances by IRGC leaders portend for Iran’s strategic calculations? Ali Alfoneh explores these and other issues in his new book ‘Iran Unveiled: How the Revolutionary Guards Is Turning Theocracy into Military Dictatorship’ (AEI Press, April 2013). At this event, Alfoneh and panelists will discuss the rise of the IRGC in Iran and the resulting challenges for American interests in the Middle East and beyond.
Register for this event here: http://www.aei.org/events/2013/04/23/iran-unveiled-how-the-revolutionary-guards-is-turning-theocracy-into-military-dictatorship/
5. The Future of Israel and Palestine: Expanding the Debate
Date and Time: April 25th 2013, 9:00 am
Location: Rayburn House Office Building
45 Independence Ave SW, Washington, DC
B338 & B339
Speakers: Stephen Walt, Henry Siegman, Philip Weiss, Hussein Ibish
Description: The Middle East Policy Council invites you and your colleagues to our 72nd Capitol Hill Conference. This special conference will be a discussion about expanding the space in U.S. media to encourage a more frank public debate on U.S. foreign policy toward Israel. Live streaming of this event will begin at approximately 9:30am EST on Thursday, April 25th and conclude around noon. A questions and answers session will be held at the end of the proceedings. Refreshments will be served.
Register for this event here: http://www.mepc.org/hill-forums/frank-discussion-israel
6. The New Egypt: Challenges of the Post-Revolutionary Era
Date and Time: April 25th 2013, 1:15-5:15
Location: Center for Strategic & International Studies
B1 Conference Center 1800 K Street NW, Washington, DC 20006
Description: Following its 2011 revolution, Egypt has been undergoing a period of political upheaval and transition toward a still uncertain new order. The direction the country chooses – and its future relations with the West and its Middle Eastern neighbors – will have profound ramifications throughout its region and the wider world.
The panels include some of Egypt’s most prominent personalities, who have been at the forefront of developments in post-revolutionary Egypt, presenting a unique opportunity to discuss the country’s future global role and policies with some of the most influential actors in Cairo. The panelists are part of a larger delegation of Egyptian leaders attending the inaugural conference of a new global forum, the Williamsburg-CSIS Forum, a meeting that constitutes the first such high-level gathering outside Egypt since the fall of the Mubarak regime just over two years ago.
Register for this event by emailing: williamsburgforum@csis.org
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Peace Picks: April 15-April 19
Abundant interesting events in a busy week:
1. Tribal Societies & Counterterrorism in Pakistan, Monday April 15/ 11:00am-12:30pm, US Institute of Peace
Venue: Us Institute of Peace 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Ambassador Akbar Ahmed, Peter Bergen, Hamid Khan
In recent months discussions around drone strikes have grown increasingly heated with claims and counter-claims around their legality, morality, and/or effectiveness as a counterterrorism weapon. Amid the heated disputes between diplomats, politicians, lawyers, and civil society activists, the views of those most directly affected by the drone strikes – those living in tribal communities in border regions – have yet to be heard.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.usip.org/events/tribal-societies-counterterrorism-in-pakistan)
2. Takedown: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda, Monday April 15/ 1:00-2:30pm, New America Foundation
Venue: New America Foundation, 1899 L St., N.W., Suite 400, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Philip Mudd, Peter Bergen
On September 11, 2001, as Central Intelligence Agency analyst Philip Mudd rushed out of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building next to the White House, he could not anticipate how the terror unleashed that day would change the world of intelligence and his life as a CIA officer. Mudd, now a fellow with the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies Program, would later serve as deputy director of the CIA’s rapidly expanding Counterterrorist Center and then as senior intelligence adviser at the FBI.
Please join the New America Foundation’s National Security Studies for a conversation with Philip Mudd and Peter Bergen about Mudd’s new book, Takedown: Inside the Hunt for Al Qaeda, which provides a first-person account of his role in two organizations that changed dramatically after 9/11. The book also sheds light on the inner workings of the intelligence community during the global counterterror campaign.
Copies of the book will be available for purchase.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/takedown_the_hunt_for_al_qaeda)
3. Afghanistan’s Economic Transition, Monday April 15/ 2:00-3:30pm, US Institute for Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: William Byrd, Borany Pehn, Fatema Sumar, Robert Saum
Afghanistan’s current transition – involving drawdown of international combat troops and hand-over of security responsibilities to Afghan security forces as well as reductions in international aid – is now well into its second year. Along with the security and political dimensions (including the next cycle of presidential and parliamentary elections in 2014 and 2015, respectively), the economic transition is an important factor influencing the success of the overall transition process. The recent publication of the World Bank’s study ‘Transition in Afghanistan: Looking Beyond 2014′ provides an opportunity to review progress, consider key issues, and assess prospects. This event, after a brief presentation and discussants’ comments, is intended to generate an open and frank discussion on economic transition issues and policy options.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.usip.org/events/afghanistans-economic-transition)
4. Author Event: Shadow Lives: The Forgotten Women of the War on Terror, Monday, April 15/ 6:30-8:00pm, Institute for Policy Studies
Venue: Busboys & Poets @ 14th & V, 2021 14th St, NW, Washington, D.C. 20009
Come to a compelling discussion about the unseen side of the ‘9/11 wars,’ as IPS Fellow Phyllis Bennis interviews author Victoria Brittain about her new book, Shadow Lives: The Forgotten Women of the War on Terror. The book reveals the impact the ‘9/11 wars’ has had on the wives and families of men incarcerated in Guantanamo, or in prison or under house arrest in Britain and the US. Brittain shows how these families have been made socially invisible and a convenient scapegoat for the state in order to exercise arbitrary powers under the cover of the ‘War on Terror.’
Her book reveals how a culture of intolerance and cruelty have left individuals at the mercy of the security services’ unverifiable accusations and punitive punishments. Both a ‘j’accuse’ and a testament to the strength and humanity of the families, Shadow Lives shows the methods of incarceration and social control being used by the British state and gives a voice to the families whose lives have been turned upside down. In doing so it raises urgent questions about civil liberties which no one can afford to ignore.
After the discussion there will be the customary book signing by Brittain.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.ips-dc.org/events/author_event_shadow_lives_the_forgotten_women_of_the_war_on_terror)
5. Iran’s Nuclear Program: Assessing the Current State & Debating the Future, Monday April 15 6:30-8:00pm, US-Middle East Youth Network
Venue: Georgetown University, 3700 O St NW, Washington DC, White-Gravenor Hall, Room 208
Speakers: Matthew Kroenig, Colin Kahl, Michael Eisenstadt
As negotiations between Iran and the international community continue, progress towards reaching a resolution regarding Iran’s disputed nuclear program has all but stalled. What are the current prospects for the success of diplomacy? Is a military option viable, sustainable, and/or worse than the alternative, political track? Can the US prevent a preemptive strike by Israel? What ramifications might this have for regional stability and nonproliferation efforts? What might the coming months hold for the conflict surrounding Iran’s nuclear program? Explore these questions and more with Professors Colin Kahl, Matthew Kroenig, and Mr. Michael Eisenstadt from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy this Monday at 6:30pm in WGR208!
For more information see:
(http://usmeyouthnetwork.org/)
6. The Future of Egypt’s Economy, Tuesday April 16 11:30am-1:30pm, Aspen Institute
Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW Suite 700
Speakers: Heidi Crebo-Rediker, Hisham Fahmy, Daniel Kurtzer
Surrounded by political uncertainty, the Egyptian economy has experienced a sharp decline over the past two years. While the Egyptian government struggles to maintain macroeconomic stability and international confidence, it faces significant challenges; unemployment continues to increase, and the country’s key sectors have seen a sluggish recovery.
Partners for a New Beginning is organizing a roundtable discussion to address economic challenges as well as opportunities to overcome them. Panelists will address the role of the private sector and international community in driving economic growth in Egypt.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/04/16/future-egypts-economy)
7. Domestic Drivers of Turkey’s Democratic Transformation, Tuesday, April 16 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, SETA Foundation at Washington DC
Venue: SETA Foundation at Washington, DC, 1025 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20036
Speakers: Sener Akturk, Kadir Ustun
Turkey’s democratization process over the past decade has been the subject of much debate. Many studies identify external dynamics such as Turkey’s EU membership negotiations as main drivers of democratic progress. Internal dynamics that made possible various democratic initiatives, such as the reforms allowing for much broader ethnic, linguistic, and religious minority rights, however, remain underappreciated. As the country seeks to consolidate its democracy through a new civilian constitution, lessons from the past decade will be critical to identify contours of democratic change in Turkey.
On April 16, 2013, the Young Scholars on Turkey (YSOT) Program will host a discussion on the domestic drivers of Turkey’s democratic transformation. The panel will feature Sener Akturk, Assistant Professor at Koc University in Istanbul, author of a new book, Regimes of Ethnicity and Nationhood in Germany, Russia, and Turkey, recently published by Cambridge University Press. Kadir Ustun, Research Director at SETA DC, will moderate the discussion.
Register for the event:
http://setadc.org/events/50-upcoming-events/465-domestic-drivers-of-turkeys-democratic-transformation
8. Innovation and Peacebuilding: Breaking Down Silos and Engaging Civil Society, Tuesday, April 16 / 1:00pm – 4:00pm, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Jan Eliasson, Melanie Greenberg, Jessica Berns, Al Maamoun Baba Lamine Keita, John Agoglia, Paula Gaviria Betancur and more
The U.S. Institute of Peace in partnership with the Alliance for Peacebuilding is pleased to co-sponsor an afternoon of events that will explore innovation in peacebuilding, and provide examples of working across silos to achieve more stable and durable peace.
Jan Eliasson, deputy secretary-general of the United Nations, will open the afternoon with a discussion on the challenges facing the United Nations in Conflict Resolution and Peacebuilding. During his career as one of the world’s top diplomats, Ambassador Eliasson also served as the special envoy of the U.N. Secretary-General for Darfur from 2007-2008. Preceding his work in Darfur, he was foreign minister of Sweden, after serving as Sweden’s ambassador to the U.S. from 2000-2005. His work has focused on mediation missions in the Middle East and Europe, as well as on broader topics such as landmines, humanitarian action, and conflict prevention. Ambassador Eliasson was appointed as the first U.N. undersecretary-general for humanitarian affairs in 1992. He was also a senior visiting scholar at USIP in 2009.
Following the conversation with Ambassador Eliasson and to launch the Alliance for Peacebuilding’s new semi-annual, online publication, Building Peace: A Forum for Peace and Security in the 21st Century, a select group of Building Peace authors will frame a discussion on peacebuilding approaches to the complex conflict in Mali. Drawing on the perspectives shared in their Building Peace articles, these authors will lead a discussion about how peacebuilders can work with local citizens and international actors to address root causes of conflict, and bring security to war-torn societies.
To register for the event click here:
(http://www.eventbrite.com/event/6128655975#)
9. Mobilizing the Diaspora: Opportunities for Engagement in N. Africa, Tuesday, April 16 / 2:00pm – 5:00pm, Aspen Institute
Venue: Aspen Institute, One Dupont Circle, NW, Suite 700, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speakers: Walter Isaacson
This event will feature two roundtable discussions focused on supporting entrepreneur mentorship and education as well as building out access to finance and investment. There will also be an opportunity for networking to allow for diaspora and other US stakeholders interested in the region to connect.
To register for the event click here:
(http://www.aspeninstitute.org/events/2013/04/16/mobilizing-diaspora-opportunities-engagement-n-africa)
10. The Second Arab Awakening: Revolution, Democracy and the Islamist Challenge from Tunis to Damascus, Wednesday, April 17 / 12:00pm – 1:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speaker: Adeed Dawisha
When, in early 2011, people poured onto the streets of Arab cities to demand freedom, it was not for the first time. An earlier spate of revolutions swept the Arab world in the 1950s and 1960s. Those revolutions that had promised so much bequeathed the recent crop of Arab despots. Dawisha puts the recent Arab awakening into historical context, then traces the progress and fates so far of revolutions from Tunis to Damascus, examining the overthrow of tyrants in some cases and the more brutal repression in others. Finally, he explores the threats and opportunities facing the victorious revolutionaries, the prospects for democratic transformations, and the meaning and consequences of Islamist victories at the polls.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/rsvp?eid=26660&pid=112)
11. Strategic Options for Iran: Balancing Pressure with Diplomacy, Wednesday, April 17 / 12:15pm – 2:00pm, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004
Speakers: William Luers, Ambassador James Dobbins, Thomas Pickering, James Walsh, Carla Hills
This event is held in collaboration with The Iran Project.
Former senior national security officials, military officers and experts with decades of Middle East experience have joined to present a balanced report on the strategic options for dealing with Iran. Moving the debate past politics and unexamined assumptions they argue that the time has come for Washington to strengthen the diplomatic track in the two track policy of pressure and diplomacy that has characterized current U.S. policy.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/rsvp?eid=26908)
12. Heaven on Earth: A Journey Through Sharia Law, Wednesday, April 17 / 3:00pm – 4:30pm, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052, Lindner Family Commons
Speaker: Sadakat Kadri
Legal historian and human rights attorney Sadakat Kadri argues that many people in the West harbor hazy or wrong ideas about Islamic law. Searching for the facts behind the myths, he traces the turbulent journey of Islam’s foundation and expansion and shows how the Prophet’s teachings evolved gradually into concepts of justice.
Sadakat Kadri is a legal historian and English barrister at the Doughty Street Chambers. In addition to his latest book, he regularly contributes to various publications including The Guardian and the London Review of Books, and is the author of The Trial: A History from Socrates to O.J. Simpson (2005).
A limited number of books will be available for GW students.
The Middle East Policy Forum is presented with the generous support of ExxonMobil.
Register for the event here:
(https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1_PQdoubx4EZmIKR6iED6KwTF-rOLbsJeNGxJwEzqqHM/viewform)
13. Iran: Are We Out of Options?, Wednesday, April 17 / 5:00pm – 7:00pm McCain Institute for International Leadership
Venue: U.S. Navy Memorial Burke Theater, 701 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington, DC 20004
Speakers: Hon. Robert Wexler, Amb. James Dobbins, Danielle Pletka, Amb. Thomas R. Pickering
With the clock ticking and renewed negotiations underway, there is no better time than the present to stop Iran’s nuclear enrichment program. But if diplomatic attempts fail, what then? Analysts give Iran less than 18 months before its nuclear weapons capacity is assured. Successive U.S. Administrations have insisted that the use of military force to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program remains an option. As the clock winds down, are we out of options? Would military force even succeed in stopping Iran? Or would the consequences of military force be worse than a nuclear capable Iran? Hear leading American experts debate U.S. policy on Iran: Are we out of Options? — the third debate in a series at the McCain Institute.
To register for the event click here:
(http://mccaininstitute.org/events/upcoming/mccain-debate-and-decision-series)
14. Balanced Growth and Financial Stability in Turkey’ Thursday, April 18 / 9:00am – 11:00am, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, Kenney Auditorium
Speakers: John Lipsky, Erdem Basi
John Lipsky, SAIS distinguished visiting scholar of International Economics and former first managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and Erdem Basi, governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, will discuss this topic. Note: Breakfast will be served at 8:30 a.m. SAIS will also host a live webcast available here at the time of the event.
Register for the event here:
(http://lipsky-basci.eventbrite.com/)
15. Drone Warfare in 2030: Examining the Future of Expanding Drone Use, the Precedent that May be Set, and Constitutional Implications Here and Abroad, Thursday, April 18 / 12:00pm – 1:30pm, AU Washington College of Law
Venue: AU Washington College of Law, 4801 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, D.C. 20016, Room602
Speakers: Joshua Foust, Nathan Sales, Stephen Vladeck, Benjamin Wittes
The United States’ expanding use of armed drones has sparked numerous discussions on the legality and ethical desirability of their use. Yet the discussions seem to be merely focusing on the nation’s current practice and less on other states that will surely be deploying the warfare technology in the near future. This panel will aim to shift the current debate on the use of drones by the US to the question of how increased use will impact the laws of war and our constitutional ideals. To what extent can the US serve as a positive example for the international community with regard to using drones or has a precedent already been set?
Register for the event here: (https://www.wcl.american.edu/secle/registration.cfm)
16. Towards an Islamic Enlightenment: The Gulen Movement, Thursday, April 18 / 6:30pm – 8:30pm, Rumi Forum
Venue: Rumi Forum, 1150 17th St. N.W., Suite 408, Washington, D.C. 20036
Speaker: M. Hakan Yavuz
M. Hakan Yavuz offers an insightful and wide-ranging study of the Gulen Movement, one of the most imaginative developments in contemporary Islam. Founded in Turkey by the Muslim thinker Fethullah Gulen, the Gulen Movement aims to disseminate a ”moderate” interpretation of Islam through faith-based education. Its activities have fundamentally altered religious and political discourse in Turkey in recent decades, and its schools and other institutions have been established throughout Central Asia and the Balkans, as well as western Europe and North America. Consequently, its goals and modus operandi have come under increasing scrutiny around the world.
Yavuz introduces readers to the movement, its leader, its philosophies, and its practical applications. After recounting Gulen’s personal history, he analyzes Gulen’s theological outlook, the structure of the movement, its educational premise and promise, its financial structure, and its contributions (particularly to debates in the Turkish public sphere), its scientific outlook, and its role in interfaith dialogue. Towards an Islamic Enlightenment shows the many facets of the movement, arguing that it is marked by an identity paradox: despite its tremendous contribution to the introduction of a moderate, peaceful, and modern Islamic outlook-so different from the Iranian or Saudi forms of radical and political Islam-the Gulen Movement is at once liberal and communitarian, provoking both hope and fear in its works and influence.
Register for the event here:
(http://www.rumiforum.org/component/option,com_dtregister/Itemid,135/eventId,144/task,event_register/type,reg_individual/)
17. On the Ashes of Sykes-Picot: Turkish Foreign Policy and the Making of a New Middle East Order, Friday, April 19 / 10:00am – 11:30am, Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies
Venue: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Nitze Building, 1740 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036, Room 417
Speaker: Soli Ozel
Soli Ozel, professor of international relations at Istanbul Kadir Has University and Miller Family Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School, and Emirhan Yorulmazlar (moderator), fellow at the SAIS Foreign Policy Institute, will discuss this topic.
To RSVP for the event, email: ckunkel@jhu.edu
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Syria isn’t going away
I couldn’t agree more with Fred Hof’s bottom line in his and Alex Simon’s paper prepared for the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum, Sectarian Violence in Syria’s Civil War: Causes, Consequences, and Recommendations for Mitigation:
Left on its current trajectory, Syria is on the path to state failure and sustained sectarian violence, featuring mass atrocities and cleansing that could amount to genocide in some areas.
That is a clear and compelling alarm, one the Holocaust Museum is uniquely qualified to sound.
As Fred and Alex painstakingly elaborate, all of the likely scenarios, including an opposition victory, will produce serious risks. This is due in no small measure to the history and context of the Syrian war. Syrian society is riddled with cleavages: sectarian, ethnic, regional, urban/rural and ideological. The Asad regime papered over them a thin veneer of secularism but quickly ripped that off when the Sunni majority rebelled. The regime has intentionally sectarianized the war, ensuring itself Alawite and other minority support by making the fight an existential one. As Hof and Simon put it:
Thus, while preaching and promoting secularism, Assad built a system implicitly featuring the sectarian poison pill: any attempt by non-Alawites to bring down the regime would run the risk of taking the country down with it via a bitter sectarian struggle.
- regime victory
- managed transition
- rebel victory
- stalemate, descent into further sectarian violence, possible state failure
They quite rightly conclude that each is worse than the last when it comes to the risks of mass atrocity and even genocide in some areas.
Check: possible future developments foreseen. Check: alarm bell rung. What is to be done?
That’s where the Holocaust Museum paper is less satisfying, but not for lack of good policy proposals. Hof and Simon want an inclusive, tolerant opposition government committed to rule of law on Syrian territory. They want a negotiated settlement that creates a transition regime. They want trust funds to back the transition. They want supply of training and weapons to good guys, while funding to bad guys is blocked. They want a UN-authorized, NATO-led stabilization force, to accompany unarmed observers. They want US support for a democratically oriented, non-sectarian outcome.
I can’t quarrel with wanting these things. But it is not at all clear how to get to them, or even how some of them would help to prevent mass atrocity. In my view, what is needed is a less global set of options targeted on the specific issue of protecting civilians. More than 70,000 Syrians are now dead due to a war that started only a bit more than two years ago. This is a colossal failure of the responsibility to protect, which lies first and foremost with the Syrian government. The options may be quite different in each scenario, but the moral imperative is the same: something needs to be done to save lives.
It is looking very much as if the fourth scenario is the most likely one (stalemate, descent into further sectarian violence, possible state failure). Preventing that or mitigating its consequences is going to require more international political will than has been forthcoming so far. Even if there is an opposition victory, the transition will be a long and painful one. With the withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan, the US has dismantled much of its civilian capacity to handle cases of state failure. We need to be thinking about how to fill the gap, either with our own personnel and resources or other peoples’. UN? Arab League? Turkey? One way or another, Syria is going to be with us for a long time. It isn’t going away just because Washington ignores it.
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Peace Picks April 9th- April 12th
1. Lessons Learned from Iraq and How They Apply to North Africa
Date and Time: April 9, 10:00-11:30 am
Location: US Institute of Peace
2301 Constitution Avenue NW, Washington, D.C.
Speakers: Amb. William B. Taylor, Jr., John Nagl, Manal Omar
Description: Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR) Stuart Bowen on March 6 released SIGIR’s final report for Congress, ‘Learning From Iraq,’ which details the accomplishments of the U.S. reconstruction efforts in Iraq. The report provides an ‘instructive picture of what was the largest stabilization and reconstruction operation ever undertaken by the United States (until recently overtaken by Afghanistan).’ Additionally, the report outlines seven lessons that the U.S. should implement to improve its approach to future stabilization and reconstruction operations. The event will highlight SIGIR’s experience in Iraq and examine the major problems it discovered, such as America’s ‘ad hoc’ approach, the effectiveness of oversight, funding challenges, and the larger issue of nation-building. Experts will explore how lessons learned from Iraq can be applied to other American-led efforts, such as those associated with emerging democracies. Please join us on April 9, 2013 from 10:00am to 11:30M for what promises to be a relevant and timely discussion.
Register for this event here: http://www.usip.org/events/lessons-learned-iraq-and-how-they-apply-north-africa
2. How the United States and Europe Can Cooperate in the Middle East
Date and Time: April 9, 6:00-7:30 pm
Location: Johns Hopkins SAIS – Rome Building
1619 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C.
806
Speakers: Charles Ries
Description: Charles Ries, vice president, international and senior fellow at the RAND Corporation and a SAIS graduate, will discuss this topic.Note: A reception will immediately follow the event in Room 812, Rome Building.
Register for this event here: http://sais-jhu.edu/events/2013-04-09-180000-2013-04-09-193000/how-united-states-and-europe-can-cooperate-middle-east
3. Energy Developments in the Persian Gulf
Date and Time: April 10, 6:00-7:30 pm
Location: Lindner Family Commons, Room 602 1957 E Street, NW
Speakers: Bijan Khajehpour, Siamak Namazi, and Ambassador Edward Skip Gnehm (as Moderator).
Description: As Iraq reemerges as a major oil producer after years of domestic turmoil, Iran continues to develop its petroleum sector despite economic sanctions. Focusing on energy sectors in Iran and Iraq, the panelists will discuss the influence of energy developments on regional relations. They will also highlight important trends in regional oil production and consumption. Dr. Bijan Khajehpour is a managing and founding partner of Atieh International, a Vienna-based management consulting firm, and holds a Ph.D. in Business Administration from the International School of Management in Paris. Siamak Namazi is the general manager of Access Consulting Group, a Dubai-based private regional consultancy, and holds a MBA from the London Business School and a MS in Urban and Regional Planning from Rutgers University.
Register for this event here: https://docs.google.com/a/aucegypt.edu/forms/d/1rE8VLjnFI8ksIKmRARxmVyQYf_D2eQXXqjwI1f7HU5o/viewform
4. Iraq: Policy and National Security Challenges for the Future
Date and Time: April 11, 6:30-8:00 pm
Location: Mortara Center for International Affairs
Speakers: James F. Jeffrey, Kenneth Pollack, David Pollock, Mr. Ahmed Ali
Description: Ten years after the launch of Operation Iraqi Freedom, Iraq remains a geopolitically vital state in the midst of questionable challenges of political, security, and natural resource instability. Join top Iraqi experts Dr. Kenneth Pollack, Dr. David Pollock, and Mr. Ahmed Ali and the former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, James F. Jeffery, in assessing the challenges to Iraq’s future development, the challenges and opportunities Iraq continues to pose for US regional and national security interests, and exploring how Iraq fits into a broader regional picture with numerous other security challenges, from Iran to Syria.
Register for this event here: http://dc.linktank.com/event/iraq_policy_and_national_security_challenges_for_the_future#.UWLyRGBU05w
5. The Turkish American Alliance: Opportunities and Challenges
Date and Time: April 12, 9:30-11:00 am
Location: Foundation for Defense of Democracies
1726 M Street, NW, Washington, DC 20036
Suite 700
Speakers: Soner Cagaptay, Douglas J. Feith, Jonathan Schanzer, Gonul Tol
Description: How does Turkey’s Syria policy help the United States? How do Turkey’s financial ties to Iran and Hamas complicate the Turkish-American relationship? How seriously does Turkey take its counter-terror finance responsibilities? What does the recent rapprochement between Ankara and Jerusalem mean for future ties between these two US allies?
Please join FDD for a conversation with Soner Cagaptay of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Douglas Feith former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy under the Bush Administration, Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and Gönül Tol of the Middle East Institute’s Center for Turkish Studies.
Register for this event here: http://www.defenddemocracy.org/events/
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Peace picks April 2 – 5
We are late with the peace picks, but here they are for the remainder of the week:
1. Nagorno-Karabakh: Understanding Conflict, Tuesday April 2, 4:30 PM- 6:00 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Rome Building, Johns Hopkins SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW DC
Students from the January 2013 SAIS trip to the Caucasus region will discuss their findings and present reports based on their interviews with leaders and members of international organizations in the region about the roots of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Website: http://sais-jhu.edu/events/2013-04-02…
2. ‘New Challenges in Europe and the Middle East: A Conversation With Julianne Smith’, Tuesday April 2, 6:00 PM – 7:30 PM, Johns Hopkins SAIS
Venue: Rome Building Johns Hopkins SAIS, 1619 Massachusetts Ave NW DC
Speakers: Julianne Smith
Julianne Smith, U.S. deputy national security adviser in the Office of the Vice President, will discuss this topic.Note: The speakers comments will be off the record. A reception will follow the event immediately after in Room 812, Rome Building.
Website: http://sais-jhu.edu/events/2013-04-02…
3. Colombia: Land and the Agenda for Peace, Wednesday April 3, 1:00 PM -5:30 PM, US Institute of Peace
Venue: US Institute of Peace, 2301 Constitution Ave NW, Washington
Speakers: Absalón Machado, Carlos Salgado, Ricardo Sabogal, Ángela Suárez Álvarez, Zoraida Castillo, Yamilé Salinas and more
Five months ago, formal peace talks were launched between the government of Colombia and the FARC-EP guerrillas. The early rounds of talks have focused on the issue of agrarian development-the first of six agreed agenda items. Highly skewed land tenure patterns, a root cause of Colombia’s longstanding internal armed conflict, have worsened over time as guerrilla insurgents, paramilitary groups, drug traffickers, agro-industrialists and the State battle for control of land, resources, and geo-strategic corridors. This violence has displaced five million Colombians, forced the evacuation of an estimated 20 million hectares of land, and produced a ‘reverse agrarian reform’ that consolidates one of the most inequitable land tenure systems in the world. What proposals are being developed to address these land inequities, to restitute the victims of Colombia’s internal armed conflict, and to build sustainable peace?
Please join us on April 3, 2013 to discuss the relationship of land and the peace agenda. The event will provide a platform for discussion among a variety of stakeholders from the U.S. and Colombian governments, victims and affected parties, academics, international organizations, and NGOs. This event is co-sponsored by the United States Institute of Peace and the U.S. Office on Colombia, with the support of U.S. Agency for International Development, U.N. Development Program, Latin America Working Group Education Fund, Mercy Corps, Inter-American Foundation, and Lutheran World Relief.
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/colombia-l…
4. Muslim Nationalists and the New Turks — A Conversation with Jenny White, Wednesday April 3 6:30 PM – 8:30 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052 Lindner Family Commons
Speakers: Jenny White
Jenny White, Associate Professor and Director, Undergraduate Studies, Anthropology Department, Boston University
Jenny White is an associate professor and director of undergraduate studies in the anthropology department at Boston University. She is the former president of the Turkish Studies Association and of the American Anthropological Association Middle East Section, and sits on the board of the Institute of Turkish Studies. She is the author of Islamist Mobilization in Turkey: A Study in Vernacular Politics (2002, winner of the 2003 Douglass Prize for best book in Europeanist anthropology) and Money Makes Us Relatives: Women’s Labor in Urban Turkey (second edition, London: Routledge, 2004). She also has written three historical novels set in 19th century Istanbul, The Sultan’s Seal (2006), The Abyssinian Proof (2008), and The Winter Thief (2010).
She will be discussing her most recent book: Muslim Nationalists and the New Turks.
*A book signing and wine reception will follow. Limited copies of the book will be available for GW students.*
RSVP: tinyurl.com/afppzwu
Sponsored by the Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS
Website: http://www.elliottschool.org/events/c…
5. China’s Maritime Disputes in the East and South China Seas,Thursday April 4 9:00 AM- 3:00 PM
Venue: Dirksen Senate Office Building, Constitution Avenue and 1st Street, NE, Washington, DCG-50
The hearing will explore the security, political, and economic drivers of China’s maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas. In addition, this hearing will examine the implications of these disputes for the United States as well as prospects for resolution.
Website: http://www.uscc.gov
6. Women in a Changing Middle East: An Address by Under Secretary of State Tara Sonenshine, Thursday, April 4 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM, Brookings Institution
Venue: Falk Auditorium Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW D.C.
Speakers: Tamara Cofman Wittes, The Honorable Tara Sonenshine
As Arab citizens struggle to rewrite the rules defining their societies, the role and status of Arab women is a sharp focus of debate. Arab women have been at the forefront of change, but have also faced unprecedented challenges. How central is women’s empowerment to the success of Arab societies, and how important are women’s rights in the struggle for democracy? What is the U.S. doing to help Arab women (and men) to advance women and girls in their societies?
On April 4, the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at Brookings will host Under Secretary of State for Public Diplomacy and Public Affairs Tara Sonenshine for an address on women in the Middle East. Senior Fellow Tamara Cofman Wittes, director of the Saban Center for Middle East Policy, will provide introductory remarks and moderate a discussion with Under Secretary Sonenshine after her remarks.
Website: http://webfeeds.brookings.edu/~r/Broo…
7. U.S. Foreign Policy: The Next Four Years, Thursday April 4 6:00 PM-7:15 PM, Elliott School of International Affairs
Venue: Lindner Family Commons,
Elliott School of International Affairs, 1957 E Street, NW, D.C.
Speakers: Maurice Mickey East, Harry Harding, Michael E. Brown, Hope M. Harrison
Maurice Mickey East, Dean, School of Public and International Affairs, GW (1985-1987); Dean, School of International Affairs, GW (1987-1988); Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, GW (1988-1994)
Harry Harding, Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, GW
(1995-2005)
Michael E. Brown, Dean, Elliott School of International Affairs, GW (2005-Present)
Moderated by:
Hope M. Harrison, Associate Professor of History and International Affairs
RSVP: go.gwu.edu/ThreeDeans
Sponsored by the Elliott School of International Affairs
Website: http://www.elliottschool.org/events/c…
8. Afghan Elections: One Year to Go, Friday April 5 10:00 AM-12:00 PM, US Institute of Peace
Venue: USIP, 2301 Constitution Avenue NW D.C.
Speakers: Nader Nadery, Scott Smith, Hossai Wardak, Scott Worden
Webcast: This event will be webcast live beginning at 10:00am ET on April 5, 2013 at www.usip.org/webcast.
April 5 marks the start of the one-year countdown to Afghanistan’s presidential election. Because of constitutional term limits, this will be the first time in post-9/11 Afghanistan that Hamid Karzai is not on a presidential ballot. The fact that this unprecedented handover of presidential power occurs in the same year that international forces hand over security responsibility to Afghan national forces further increases the importance of the presidential election.
Afghans frequently highlight the inter-related nature of the upcoming security and political transitions in Afghanistan, and the importance of elections that produce a legitimate outcome for future peace and stability of Afghanistan. Furthermore, previous flawed elections have made many Afghans doubt the integrity of the democratic process.
If the April 5 election is not a marked improvement on past elections, the democratic progress that Afghanistan has made so far will be put in jeopardy. Please join a panel of experts at USIP to discuss the critically important technical and political issues that need to be addressed during the next 365 days in order for the elections to produce a credible and legitimate outcome.
Website: http://www.usip.org/events/afghan-ele…
9. Women’s Roles in Terrorist Movements, Friday April 5 6:00 PM-8:00 PM, Institute of World Politics
Venue: Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th Street NW DC
Speakers: Paula Holmes-Eber, Christopher C. Harmon
This event is hosted by IWP’s Student Government Association.
In the Latin, Asian, Middle Eastern, and European regions, revolutionary political movements have been accepting and deploying women in various and important roles: cadre; mid-level organizers; intelligence agents; couriers; combatants of many sorts; and suicide bombers. In unusual cases, women have also held senior leadership posts in undergrounds; a few have run their own terror organizations. What are the reasons for, and effects of, incorporating females into sub-state fighting organizations? What are the ‘lessons learned’ for intelligence analysts, military personnel, and students of the social sciences focused on culture and war?
IWP is holding a lecture-and-discussion opening to such issues on Friday, April 5, at 6:00 PM. The speakers are Dr. Paula Holmes-Eber (anthropologist) and Dr. Christopher C. Harmon (who teaches a terrorism course for IWP). Both represent Marine Corps University in Quantico, VA.
Paula Holmes-Eber, Ph.D. is Professor of Operational Culture at Marine Corps University. She is responsible for creating and teaching curricula on cultural aspects of conflict for all four schools at the university: Expeditionary Warfare School, Command and Staff College, School of Advanced Warfighting and Marine Corps War College. She also supports and advises staff at the Center for Advanced Operational Culture Learning, Quantico, VA on academic matters concerning warfighting and culture, Islam, Arab society and North Africa.
Dr. Holmes-Eber completed her Master’s and Doctoral degrees in Anthropology from Northwestern University. She holds a B.A. magna cum laude from Dartmouth College, a Certificate in African Studies from Northwestern University and a Certificate in Tunisian Arabic from the Ecole Bourguiba des Langues Vivantes in Tunis, Tunisia. Her research and expertise focus on kinship and social networks in Arab and Muslim culture in North Africa.
Prior to her current position at Marine Corps University, Dr. Holmes-Eber was an Assistant Professor of Anthropology at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and a Visiting Scholar in the Middle East Center at the Jackson School of International Studies at the University of Washington. She is fluent in French, Arabic, German and Italian and has lived and traveled in over forty countries around the world including Tunisia, Morocco, Turkey, Israel, Mongolia, China, Taiwan, Japan, Russia and Tonga.
Christopher C. Harmon, Ph.D. has had 21 years of teaching security studies, strategy, military theory & history, and courses on terrorism at six graduate schools, including a division of National Defense University, and the Naval War College.
Currently, he teaches Terrorism and Counterterrorism at IWP and is MajGen Matthew C. Horner Chair of Military Theory at Marine Corps University.
Dr. Harmon has served as Curricula Director for the Program on Terrorism and Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Garmisch Germany. He has also served as the Kim T. Adamson Chair of Insurgency & Terrorism, Marine Corps University at Quantico, VA, and as Professor of International Relations at the University’s Command and Staff College. He has done academic research fellowships with the Earhart Foundation; Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace; Claremont Institute.
Dr. Harmon holds a B.A. in History and French Language from Seattle University, where he graduated summa cum laude, and an M.A. in Government and a Ph.D. in International Relations and Government from Claremont Graduate School.
Dr. Harmon is the author of Terrorism Today, co-author of Toward a Grand Strategy Against Terrorism, and co-editor of Statecraft and Power. His article ‘Spain’s ETA Terrorist Group is Dying’ was published in the geopolitics journal ORBIS in Fall 2012.
Website: http://www.iwp.edu/events/detail/wome…
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