Tag: Ukraine
Okay, but still a long way to go
Yesterday was an election day in parts of the United States. The most important races were in two deep-red Congressional districts in Florida and a state court judgeship in Wisconsin. In Florida, the Republicans won, despite heavy Democratic spending. The margins were half of what Trump had scored just five months ago. In Wisconsin, the more liberal candidate won a Supreme Court seat, despite Elon Musk’s massive spending and personal campaigning.
By-elections don’t often excite the US. But the media had billed these as early referendums on the Trump Administration. The Wisconsin contest will decide the court’s balance on issues like abortion and redistricting. That could be important in the long run. The Florida races will not change the majority in the House, but they are bellwethers. They suggest a big shift away from Trump.
Break it and never fix it
Nevertheless, no one should expect big changes. Trump today will announce big tariffs. That will trigger retaliation against US exports worldwide. Musk’s firing of government workers continues, including Internal Revenue Service people who collect far more additional in taxes than they cost. The National Security adviser continues to use insecure communications. The immigration enforcement folks have admitted at least one mistaken deportation, but they are not going to try to bring the man back from El Salvador. This is the break it and never fix it Administration.
That applies also abroad. Trump has left Ukraine dangling. Kyiv has agreed to a limited ceasefire but Trump can’t get Moscow to do likewise. Encouraged by Trump’s bellicosity, Israel is breaking the ceasefire with Hamas. Greenlanders have made it clear they don’t want to be part of the US, but Trump is proceeding with planning to take over the vast ice land. Canadians have done likewise, but Trump persists.
How will this play out?
Most of my friends want to know how all this will eventually play out. The short answer is I don’t know. We seem to still be far from the kind of political upheaval that will reverse the madness. Senator Booker broke the record for speaking in the Senate yesterday, at over 25 hours denouncing the Administration. That may rally some support from a few Democrats. There will be demonstrations countrywide this Saturday, but Trump and his minions will ignore those.
Until there is a Democratic majority in at least one of the Houses of Congress, it is up to the courts to slow and block the worst of Trump’s behavior. They are doing okay. But they are expensive and slow. Their remedies are often blunt or lacking. And ultimately the supermajority of “conservatives” (that is Republican hacks) on the Supreme Court get to decide. Justices Alito and Thomas will do anything Trump wants. The other four Republican nominees are not far behind.
Diasporas are the best hope
Even the courts won’t help much with foreign policy, as the President’s powers there are vast. The best hope lies in diasporas from around the world. They have a lot of domestic influence in parts of the United States. I’m told the diaspora was responsible for getting Marco Rubio to say the right thing recently about Bosnia. That should be a lesson to Albanians, Ukrainians, Poles, Taiwanese, and others.
The key is to find a place where your diaspora can make a real difference in a House or Senate election outcome. Then find a major influencer or contributor to Republican campaigns willing to threaten to withdraw support. That may get a hearing, if you are connected in the right way. Trump is transactional. The diasporas have the potential to make transactional bargains with him.
Meanwhile, the rest of us marvel: is this the same America that once welcomed those yearning to breathe free? Or is this a revival of the 1920s and 1930s America that tried to limit immigration, raise tariffs, and isolate itself from Europe?
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America made a giant mistake
The Signal chat is now the talk of DC. On it, Secretary of Defense Hegseth shared information that could have given an adversary opportunity to kill American service people. That’s all you really need to know. But it turns out that information came from an Israeli clandestine source, which compounds to damage. Signal is a commercial system not authorized for classified information. Hegseth denies it, to his discredit, but the operational information he shared was unquestionably classified.
Dumb and dumber
National Security Advisor Walz and Director of National Intelligence Gabbard compounded the sin. They lied to Congress about the contents of the chat, which has now been published by The Atlantic. Vice President Vance and President Trump claim they and their underlings did nothing wrong. These are stupid denials. Any lower-ranking official who did what Hegseth did would be courtmartialed or fired. The US Government would never again hire someone who did what he did. No one who did it would ever be hired by the US Government again. We are talking gross malfeasance here, not nuance. If he doesn’t resign, Hegseth should be fired.
Now Trump is trying to distract attention. He has announced 25% tariffs on cars. Tomorrow it will be something else. He is determined to create turmoil. It shifts the ground under his critics’ feet and prevents accountability. Almost no one has noticed Trump’s Executive Order on elections, which is intended to severely curtail voting by poor people and minorities. That’s a big win for him.
Dumbest
But the dumbest thing is the supposed ceasefire agreements in Ukraine. There Trump has promised Putin sanctions relief in exchange for an end to fighting in the Black Sea. That disadvantages the Ukrainians in two different ways. The Russians were no longer fighting in the Black Sea, as Ukrainian naval drones had chased their warships into port. Relieving them of financial sanctions is a big reward for nothing.
Trump has already given Moscow a bar on Ukrainian NATO membership and permission to hold on to occupied territory. Sanctions relief is a hat trick for Putin. He is laughing at Trump, who is playing the fool. I shouldn’t say playing. He is a fool.
The world already knows what Americans need to realize
This Administration is dumb and ill-intentioned. It is literally knocking on doors in Greenland looking for people who want to meet the Vice President and his wife. Everyone is saying a polite “no.” Denmarkers wouldn’t be so polite. In fact, it is now hard to imagine any European country that would be pleased with a high level visit from the US, other than Viktor Orban’s autocratic Hungary.
The situation isn’t much better in the Middle East. Only Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would welcome Trump with open arms. Kurkiye’s President Erdogan might like a visit, but only because it would give him the chance to roll Trump again, as he has repeatedly done in the past. Even his friendship with the Saudis has cooled. No more sword dancing. Not to mention Canada, where Trump’s offensive behavior has infuriated a normally equilibrated citizenry.
It will take more time for Americans to fathom the mistake they have made. But buyers’ remorse will set in. Unfortunately, it will only be after tens of thousands have lost their jobs, many farmers have lost their farms, inflation has ravaged the country again, leading scientists have fled for greener pastures, untold numbers have lost their livelihood and lives, and the world has lost confidence in American leadership.
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Might doesn’t make right, but it’s winning
The bad news comes from every direction. The Trump Administration is closing Social Security offices but requiring more people to apply to them in person for benefits. The government needs more revenue but the Internal Revenue Service is firing the people who audit tax returns. The National Institutes of Health, the National Science Foundation, and other funders of American science are canceling grants and contracts. The Administration deported unidentified people over the objections of a Federal court.
In my world of international affairs, the news is also bad. The Administration is closing the organizations that broadcast reasonably objective news into autocratic countries. RFE/RL, Al Hurra, VoA, and others are to cease operations completely. The President wants peace in Ukraine. But he wants to close one of America’s premier Ukraine-focused institutions, the US Institute of Peace. Israel wants peace but has broken the ceasefire in Gaza to kill hundreds more Palestinians. Putin wants peace but he stiffed Trump’s call for a 30-day ceasefire in a phone call today.
International broadcasting
I’ve done a lot of interviews for international broadcasting organizations, including those named above as well as Al Jazeera Arabic. I don’t do it to convince people that I am right. My objective is to expose listeners/viewers to a perspective they may not otherwise hear. In my experience, all these outlets–including Al Jazeera Arabic–are consistently professional and balanced. I am often on the air with people I don’t agree with. The questioning is well-informed and appropriate to what is going on in the world. Other moments or programs may be less professional, but I wouldn’t participate in those and the producers know it. I gave up on Russia Today and Iranian broadcasters because they weren’t balanced or professional.
The US Agency for Global Media had about $450 million to spend this year. That sounds like a lot of money. It is less than .06% of the non-defense budget of the United States. Firing all those people and closing the institutions is the equivalent of less than a rounding error. DOGE is saving nothing by ending international broadcasting. But it is weakening the messages the US sends to the rest of the world. Free discourse, which rarely favors might makes right, suffers. That is what Trump wants, not budgetary savings. No doubt the Administration will eventually decide it needs an international propaganda arm and will spend even more on that.
The United States Institute of Peace
USIP is even less of a rounding error, at something under $100 million per year. I worked there for 12 years, from 1998 to 2010. The Institute played a pivotal role in the Balkans, where it helped create the Inter-religious Council in Bosnia. It provided the fora in which Serbs and Albanians began to talk with each other after the 1999 NATO/Yugoslavia war. And for more than two decades it has helped to keep the peace between Sunni and Shia in Iraq. I could cite many more examples, but you get the point.
The problem for Trump is that USIP is a bipartisan organization that he does not fully control. So he fired all the nongovernmental board members. Then the remaining three Administration board members claim to have fired the USIP President. They are taking over the building and the institution, both of which are private. It sounds like expropriation without legal authority to me. Might is winning for now.
Israel in Gaza
The Israeli decision to restart massive attacks on Gaza came in response to Hamas’ failure to release hostages. That in turn was in response to Israel’s refusal to start talks on ending the war. Prime Minister Netanyahu is bucking public opinion in Israel, which favors hostage release in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. He fears an end to the Gaza war. That could bring accountability for intelligence and military failures that made the 2023 Hamas attack so deadly. President Trump has encouraged Netanyahu in pursuing this course. Israel appears to have succeeded in killing some prominent Hamas leaders, along with hundreds of civilians.
Hamas is in a corner. It has declining traction in the Palestinian population and a decreasing number of living hostages. Israel acknowledges no limits to the civilian damage it is prepared to do. It would prefer that they leave Gaza altogether. That approach has Trump’s wholehearted support, to clear the way for his Mar-al-Gaza resort proposal. So far, no decisive opposition has come from Europe or the Arab states. Might is winning. The Israeli, American Jewish, and Arab preference for the ceasefire and exchanges is losing.
Ukraine’s weakness
Gaza is tragic. Ukraine is grim. Trump holds Ukrainian President Zelensky hostage with the vital US assistance he requires to continue the war. He is bypassing Zelensky to deal directly with Russian President Putin on the fate of Ukraine. In a phone call today, Putin told Trump to shove it. He wouldn’t even agree to a 30-day ceasefire but pledged no attacks on critical infrastructure for 30 days. That won’t last much longer than the 3-hour phone call. It’s definitely a nothingburger.
Putin and Trump spent most of their time on the call talking about how to improve US/Russia relations. Of course for Putin that framing requires the US to drop its assistance to Kyiv. Trump is amenable. He can’t get anything out of Putin because he has already given away too much. I won’t be surprised if we hear soon about more pressure on Zelensky and less on Russia. Zelensky is refusing to give up territory, insisting on continued US aid, and rejecting the idea of neutrality. The diplomatic position is strong, but Ukraine’s military position is weak. Trump and Putin are the mighty. They don’t care what Zelensky wants.
The difference between at home and abroad
At home, we can hope the courts will slow, stop, and even reverse the crimes and misdemeanors. Americans will sue to get government employees rehired, independent institutions re-established, and citizen services provided. Nothing like that will happen with the might makes right behavior internationally. At least a generation will pass before the damage is repaired.
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Neither nothingburger nor whopper
The 30-day fighting pause agreed today between Ukraine and the US is not a nothingburger. But it isn’t a whopper either. More like a quarter-burger.
No pause is a pause until both warring parties have agreed. I imagine the Americans have good reason to hope the Russians will sign on. But it isn’t a real agreement until they do.
What else did they say?
The Ukrainians offered fulsome gratitude to President Trump, the US Congress, and Americans for their assistance. Trump and Vance had complained they hadn’t thanked the US enough.
The US says it is lifting the pause on intelligence sharing and military assistance. Administration officials are claiming neither entirely stopped.
Some Ukrainian humanitarian priorities are cited: exchange of prisoners, release of civilians, and return of forcibly displaced Ukrainian children. These are not new items, and there has been sporadic progress in the past. But for Kyiv they are important.
The Americans and Ukrainians agreed to name negotiating teams for discussions aimed at an enduring peace and Ukrainian long-term security. The Ukrainians want the Europeans involved in the negotiations.
Presidents Trump and Zelensky agreed to conclude a comprehensive critical minerals agreement. This is presumably like the one they didn’t sign at the White House 10 days ago. It is supposed to expand Ukraine’s economy and “guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security.”
What’s missing?
I don’t see anything objectionable in this statement. But it leaves out a lot. It makes no mention of Russia’s continuing occupation of Ukrainian territory. It neglects the need for security guarantees beyond the minerals agreement, which is insufficient. The statement says nothing about Russian aggression and responsibility for compensation. It does not assert American support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. It leaves the Americans free to continue excluding the Europeans from the negotiations.
Of course the parties can cover all these issues in the future. But their neglect here tells you how far the US has gone in tilting towards support for Moscow. Nothing in this statement should cause any concern there. If Putin rejects the ceasefire offer, it will betray his lack of interest, not anything in this document.
What next?
If Moscow agrees, we’ll get a 30-day pause. Both sides will try to rearm, consolidate, redeploy, resupply, and prepare for more. I imagine it will be done initially without the trappings of a real ceasefire. It can be built out in subsequent iterations if both sides agree.
The critical question is whether the Americans are really going to continue intel sharing and military assistance. They may start using them to force the Ukrainians’ hand, switching on and off on a daily or weekly basis. The Russians would no doubt take advantage of that on the battlefield, as they have in recent days.
If Trump really wants success, he’ll use any Russian hesitation to tighten the sanctions on Moscow. The Russian economy is in deep difficulty.
Tightening sanctions might have a salutary effect on Putin’s willingness to deal. But Putin has weathered them so far. And Trump shows no signs of taking advantage of the opportunity, even though he has mentioned it in public.
This agreement between the US and Ukraine may not stop the war between Russia and Ukraine. But let’s hope it stops the war between Washington and Kyiv.
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All that glitters is not gold
President Trump is promising a golden era. Let’s have a look.
What’s he doing now?
Tariffs, immigration restrictions, refusal to help democracies in Europe: this reminds me of the 1930s. So too does withdrawal from international institutions and stock market jitters. We know how that ended. Will it be better this time?
The campaign against woke as well as diversity, equity, inclusion is racial and gender prejudice incognito. Racism without the white sheet and pointy hat.
Firing of government workers and canceling of government grants and contracts is how both Trump and Elon Musk conduct business. These are the people you never want to do business with. They don’t keep commitments. They lie about accomplishments. The savings are going to be minimal. Firing all government employees would save 4% of the Federal budget. Firing IRS agents is going to increase the deficit.
The dismantling of USAID is already killing non-Americans who suffer from HIV, malaria, and other diseases. It is also hurting American agriculture and the American contractors who implement most of the work done abroad. At less than .5% of the budget, the savings are minimal. Once the court cases clear, I doubt there will be any savings at all.
What’s he aiming for?
Trump isn’t hiding his goals. He wants to extend a tax cut from his first term that will cost the US government $4.5 trillion. We know what that did the first time around: it was expensive and skewed to the rich. It did not deliver promised benefits. There is no way to compensate for the full $4.5 trillion, but the Republican House proposal is to take $880 million from Medicaid, depriving one-fifth of Americans of health insurance:
Trump will claim the savings come from waste, fraud, and mismanagement (WFM), but that is flim flam. There isn’t anywhere near enough WFM.
Trump has already suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, while asking nothing of Russia. Moscow continues its bombardment of civilians and its push for more territory. Trump’s goal is to get Ukraine to agree to give up land in exchange for Russian security guarantees. Putin has repeatedly proved those worthless. Trump expects the Europeans to provide peacekeepers, but that is entirely dependent on US backup through NATO’s Article 5. Trump is saying he won’t commit to that. The push to end the war in Ukraine is again flim flam. Dangerous flim flam as it is encouraging Putin to do whatever he feels like doing.
In the Middle East, Trump is still bragging on Gaza-lago, his scheme for rebuilding Gaza into a Mediterranean resort. No one things that is happening. If he were successful at moving the Palestinians out, it would make Americans targets of terrorism worldwide.
Dross is what you get
I underestimated Trump. To me, he is an obvious fraud. But he fools a lot of Americans. They think Musk is doing something that will balance the budget. They believe Trump will somehow make peace in Ukraine. His supporters don’t care that his Gaza ideas are bogus. It’s not just that all that glitters is not gold. It’s that anything Trump touches turns to dross.
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Dark times, but the worst is yet to come
@blisterpearl tweeted:
The Trump Administration is moving to cut off military supplies to Ukraine. Europe is trying to step up its game. But it can’t substitute all of the American weapons and intelligence on which Ukraine relies. Secretary of Defense Hegseth has ordered a halt to offensive cyber operations against Russia. Moscow is still conducting cyber operations against the US.
Tariffs go into effect on Canada, Mexico, and China today. They are 25% for Canada and Mexico, and an added 10% for China. Americans consumers will pay them. The stock market knew what to think: it dropped 2% yesterday and is no doubt headed down further.
Elon Musk continues to weaken the US Government, including agencies that regulate his businesses. The courts continue to issue orders to stop his blockage of government funds, but the Administration is mostly ignoring those. Trump hopes “his” Supreme Court will back his authority to make the cuts.
The US Congress remains in Republican hands. Tonight their half will stand and applaud wildly during the State of the Union. Trump meanwhile is denuding the Congress of its most important responsibility: the power of the purse. He is not expending appropriated funds.
No cure in Congress before November 2026
The American people don’t support this. Many managed to forget the disasters of Trump’s first term and too many didn’t turn out for last November’s election. But most now think Trump is doing too much too quickly. That is what Presidents try to do early in their term, knowing that resistance will build later.
The first available cure is in by elections. Two will be held April 1 to replace members of Congress appointed to the Trump Administration. They are both in deep red districts in Florida. It would be a minor miracle if the Democrats were to win one, never mind both. Another will be in upstate New York at a date still to be decided. It, too, is a Republican safe seat, more or less. If I’ve got this right, even winning all three would not flip the House. Marco Rubio’s Florida Senate seat will be up for grabs only in November 2026.
So essentially we’ve got a Republican majority in both houses until then. The damage Trump will have done is enormous. But it will be much worse if the Congress remains in Republican hands thereafter.
Can the popular will change Trump’s course before the next election?
Polls won’t deter Trump, who can’t run again anyway. I’d like to see the Democrats walk out on the State of the Union address tomorrow night. Or maybe not show up at all. Or hold up photos of Ukrainian President Zelensky as soon as Trump mentions Ukraine.
I wonder whether dramatic manifestations of popular opposition can do what is needed. A statement from the ex-presidents would help. So too would a national day of protest, say on May 25, the day before Memorial Day. Each major city should organize its own demonstration, with a monster one in DC.
Some Republican defections would help. Republican Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski, has criticized what Trump is doing on Ukraine. But she failed to mention his name. If she were to caucus with the Democrats, even as an independent, it would make a big difference. Better yet if she brings a friend or two. So far though, we’ve seen little indication of courage on her side of the aisle.
The worst is yet to come
We live in dark times. But the worst is yet to come.
The budget ax will fall on Medicaid this year, which provides health insurance to twenty per cent of Americans. Trump will need to increase agricultural subsidies to compensate for the retaliation his tariffs will generate. Tariffs and the roundup of immigrants will raise prices, which are already headed in the wrong direction. Trump’s first-term tax cuts for the rich, which he wants extended, will boost the deficit.
If Putin gets what he wants in Ukraine, Moldova will be next. And after that the Baltics. The dominoes will fall, unless Europe finds the wherewithal to back a Ukrainian victory.
But the biggest threat looming is the Supreme Court. If it upholds Trump’s egregious behavior in eviscerating the US government, American democracy is doomed. Already the Washington Post and other media outlets are bending to Trump’s will. With the Supreme Court backing him, no opposition will stand a chance.
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