Tag: Ukraine
The end is nigh, once again
2013 is ending with a lot of doom and gloom:
- South Sudan, the world’s newest state, is suffering bloodletting between political rivals, who coincide with its two largest tribes (Dinka and Nuer).
- The Central African Republic is imploding in an orgy of Christian/Muslim violence.
- North Korea is risking internal strife as its latest Kim exerts his authority by purging and executing his formally powerful uncle.
- China is challenging Japan and South Korea in the the East China Sea.
- Syria is in chaos, spelling catastrophe for most of its population and serious strains for all its neighbors.
- Nuclear negotiations with Iran seem slow, if not stalled.
- Egypt‘s military is repressing not only the Muslim Brotherhood but also secular human rights advocates.
- Israel and Palestine still seem far from agreement on the two-state solution most agree is their best bet.
- Afghanistan‘s President Karzai is refusing to sign the long-sought security agreement with the United States, putting at risk continued presence of US troops even as the Taliban seem to be strengthening in the countryside, and capital and people are fleeing Kabul.
- Al Qaeda is recovering as a franchised operation (especially in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and North Africa), even as its headquarters in Pakistan has been devastated.
- Ukraine is turning eastward, despite the thousands of brave protesters in Kiev’s streets.
The Economist topped off the gloom this week by suggesting that the current international situation resembles the one that preceded World War I: a declining world power (then Great Britain, now the US) unable to ensure global security and a rising challenger (then Germany now China). Read more
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Where do you find free cheese?
In what may be the biggest auction since Moscow and Washington vied for influence in various third world countries during the Cold War, Ukraine (pop: 45 million) is attracting some hefty bids. Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday upped the ante: he plunked down $15 billion to buy potentially worthless Ukrainian government bonds and cut the price of Russian natural gas (by what I figure is one third). At the same time, he said he wasn’t insisting on Ukraine joining his Eurasian customs union. He figures the European Union won’t be willing to match that.
That does not mean “game over,” because the demonstrators are still in Maidan calling for President Yanukovich to sign an association agreement with the EU, one that Catherine Ashton is claiming will not hurt Russia’s interests in Ukraine. It would open Ukrainian markets and force its producers to adjust, which is why Yanukovich is asking for another 20 billion euros (per year!) from Brussels. I suppose he may still get some substantial fraction of that, provided he didn’t make the mistake of promising Putin he would not sign with the EU. The parliamentary opposition is threatening to block the Russian deal, prompting the choicist comment I’ve heard on the situation: Read more
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