Tag: Ukraine
Trump’s first foreign policy failure
I find it hard to cheer the widening of any war. But President Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to strike deeper inside Russia is an exception. It has become necessary in response to Moscow’s persistence in pursuing its invasion despite colossal losses.
I am not really cheering the move. It’s more like recognizing its grim necessity.
The gains are small but the losses are big
The Russians have advanced, albeit marginally, over the past year, mainly in Donbas. The gains in 2024 amount to less than 1% of Ukraine’s territory. The advances since 2022 have cost around 700,000 Russians killed and wounded, according to the Ukrainians. Russian military casualties are now estimated at around 40,000 per month. That’s why President Putin doesn’t want to mobilize Russians again. They are souring on his war.
The losses on the Ukrainian side are no doubt large as well, though not the 700,000 or so Moscow claims. Russia is simply mirroring the number projected in the West for its own losses. But Ukraine before the war had a population of about 37 million. Russia’s was almost four times that number. In a war of attrition, Russia has more bodies to throw at Ukraine than Ukraine has to throw at Russia. And more elite political willingness to accept those losses. Putin doesn’t tolerate dissent.
Russia also continues to attack civilians and civilian infrastructure using drones and missiles. To judge by news reports, Ukraine’s attacks on civilians are minor by comparison.
Escalation but will it make a difference?
Biden’s decision apparently applies to MGM-40 Army Tactical Missile System (aka ATACMs) with a range of about 190 miles. It is reportedly limited for now to countering Russian advances in Kursk oblast, which the Ukrainians invaded in August. The decision responds to the deployment there of North Korean troops in support of the Russian army.
Moscow is portraying this deployment as adding fuel to the fire. That is a reasonable assessment, but the fire will not be in Ukraine. Most of the gigantic country remains beyond their range. The ATACMs can however reach a lot of military targets inside Russia. Whether that is a game changer, or they are too little too late, is unclear for now.
What is clear and what isn’t
The Ukrainians and Russians are racing for gains against the January 20 deadline in the US. Both expect President Trump, once inaugurated, to try to force a negotiated settlement to the war. Reports suggest he would require Ukraine to cede, at least temporarily, Russian occupied areas. It would also commit Kyiv to not joining NATO for decades.
That would be a one-sided settlement in favor of Moscow. And it would need the Europeans to deploy peacekeepers to guard a demilitarized zone between the two sides.
None of the parties will find the Trump idea attractive. Putin seems ready to reject it. He wants all of Ukraine permanently within the Russian sphere of influence and outside NATO. The Europeans, who have failed at peacekeeping between Israel and Lebanon, won’t want to do guard a demilitarized zone. Ukrainian President Zelensky doesn’t want to cede territory or be barred from NATO.
That doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Trump will threaten to withhold aid to Ukraine. The Europeans won’t compensate Kyiv and will want to limit the Russian advance. Putin is facing increasing economic and popular pressure at home. Zelensky may get boxed in.
Partition has consequences
The consequences of decades-long partition will be tragic. The Russians will insist on Zelensky’s removal, or defenestrate him at the first opportunity. Western investment in Ukraine will dry up. Its economy will shrivel. People will emigrate. Moscow proxies will take over, as they have in Georgia and Chechnya. Putin will have won.
Partition of Ukraine will echo elsewhere. Serbia will see it as an opportunity to take northern Kosovo. Republika Srpska will try to secede from Bosnia and Herzegovina. Irredentist ambitions worldwide will flower. China will want to assert sovereignty over Taiwan. Israel will annex the West Bank and northern Gaza. Dozens of border disputes in other regions will exacerbate.
Trump’s partition of Ukraine will be his first but not his only foreign policy failure.
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Immigration is clear, national security not
Trump’s appointments so far merit a first look. What do they suggest about the direction of the next Administration?
Deportation is for real
The appointments of Steven Miller as deputy chief of staff, Tom Homan as “border czar” (a White House appointment?), and Kristi Noem as Homeland Security Secretary send a clear message. They suggest that Trump is doubling down on deportation of undocumented immigrants. He proposes to start with those who have criminal convictions, in the US or abroad. But is a small percentage of the targeted population. Any convicted in the US are deported upon release. US Border Patrol has arrested about 17000 “criminal noncitizens” so far this year.
Focus on immigrant criminals was an election-year gimmick. Trump is really after the millions of undocumented immigrants living in the US who are not criminals. He wants to use the US Army to support that effort, which is estimated to cost more than $300 billion. Crime rates in this undocumented immigrant population are lower than among American-born citizens.
The disruption to the US economy, especially in some of the areas that voted most heavily for Trump, is likely. Especially if Homan follows through on threats to conduct workplace raids and deport whole families, massive economic damage will ensue.
Foreign policy is unclear
The signals on foreign policy are less clear. The named National Security Advisor, Michael Waltz, is a former Green Beret and China hawk. He is called a Ukraine skeptic, but that is vague. Would he advise against continued assistance to Ukraine in current circumstances? Or would he want it augmented to ensure a negotiated settlement on Ukraine’s terms?
The nominee for Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is similarly ambiguous. He favors a negotiated end to the war that maintains Ukrainian sovereignty. It is not clear what that means, though the Kyiv Post assumes it means concession of some territory to Russia in exchange for peace. Rubio is also an Iran hawk who favored the disastrous 2018 withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. That diplomatic malpractice resulted in Iran becoming a nuclear threshold state today.
The alternatives to Waltz and Rubio, even though both have become Trump sycophants, could have been worse. Former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn is a nut job. Ric Grenell, a former Trump ambassador in Berlin and momentarily Director of National Intelligence, is a grifting dimwit. Grenell may still be in the running for a high position at State or elsewhere, so no one should assume yet that he is out of the running completely. He never had the stature to be Secretary of State, but that would not have prevented Trump from nominating him. He has strong business ties to Jared Kushner. That could be his trump card.
Defense: even more unclear
Trump hasn’t named a Secretary of Defense yet.* If it is to be Iowa Senator Joni Ernst, fans in Kosovo will cheer. The Kosovo Security Force collaboration with the Iowa National Guard has been consistently fruitful. It has also spun off academic, government, and commercial cooperation.
But there are lots of other candidates according to Fox News, including Grenell. Whoever gets the job will face enormous challenges. Defense of US interests abroad requires that Washington remain committed to NATO and other alliances in the Pacific. Trump has continued to be more critical of allies than of Vladimir Putin.
The Kremlin has denied Trump urged the Russian President to show restraint in Ukraine. That could suggest the beginning of some strain between Trump and Putin, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
A bit better than last time around, but not for Gaza and Lebanon
Trump’s appointments so far have all been loyalists, to him personally and to election denial. But they are also people who are arguably more suitable than some of his previous choices. He is getting through the process quickly and cleanly. There are lots of rumors, but little hesitation or confusion. Trump chief of staff Wiles is doing her job well.
In late breaking news, former Arkansas Governor Huckabee will be ambassador to Israel. That confirms what sensible people knew. Trump will back Netanyahu 100%. Not because of the Jews, who voted overwhelmingly for Harris, but because of the Christian Evangelicals. The wars in Gaza and Lebanon will end only when Netanyahu wants them to. Trump will back Netanyahu even more than Biden did.
*After I published this, Trump announced a Fox News talking head, Pete Hegseth, as his pick for Defense. I know nothing about him but what I read on Wikipedia. I respect his military service, but he hardly seems even close to the qualifications required of a Defense Secretary. And lobbying for pardons for convicted war criminals is disqualifying. He is certainly far below Joni Ernst in stature. Trump’s nominee to head the CIA, is John Ratcliffe. He had trouble winning Senate confirmation as Director of National Intelligence in the first Trump administration. Ratcliffe is notable for his lack of professional intelligence qualifications and partisan posturing.
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Americans, welcome to the 4th Reich!
J. F. Carter, US Army (ret LTC) 1968-1992, United Nations (ret D-1) 1992-2009, and European Union (ret D-1) 2009-2011, writes:
I hope I am wrong. But if Trump and his acolytes implement even 1/3 of the promises and projects he has set forth in Project 2025 and otherwise supported, the USA, as we knew it, will become a dying ember. He will sacrifice our honor, pride and principles on his transactional altar.
His isolationist foreign policy will relegate the US to a bit player to be ignored or pushed around.
Ukraine and Taiwan abandoned
Ukraine and Taiwan will be the first victims of his failure to stay resolute.
Imagine The Greatest Generation refusing to come to protect the sovereignty of European and Asian nations during World War II. Our nation would not have risen to the pinnacle of its success and power had our forefathers not accepted their responsibilities. They would have been guilty of sacrificing the lives of tens of millions of people due to sheer cowardice.
The ripple effect
Failure to back Ukraine and Taiwan will lead to further Russian encroachments. These will include Moldova, Georgia, and the Baltics. They will also affect Central Europe as well as Chinese control over Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Our EU and Asian allies will lose all confidence in our nation. He will unchain Israel. The reaction by the surrounding countries will fan the flames of a regional conflict. Trump’s transactional approach will bring about another Balkan conflict leading to a Greater Serbia aligned with Russia.
Russia rescued
Putin and gang are breathing a huge sigh of relief. They are congratulating themselves for their flood of misinformation and disinformation pushing voters toward Trump. What a reversal of fortunes, just as Putin and Russia were facing economic and political disaster.
Some might welcome an end to the fighting between Russia and Ukraine. But remember, that the Russia violated the terms of the Minsk Agreements of 2014-2015. Putin used that agreement as a temporary pause to relaunch his second invasion of Ukraine in 2021. Any future agreement would allow Russia to rebuild to attack not only Ukraine but also Moldova and Georgia.
The domestic agenda: (in)justice
For those more interested in Trump’s domestic agenda, read the provisions of Project 2025, which outlines his plans. They essentially would undermine the foundations of our democracy and economy.
– Perhaps the most venal proposal is to replace professional civil servants in the government with party hacks. This is the case in Russia, China, Hungary, and other authoritarian regimes. Trump will use executive authority to impose personnel in the Departments of Justice, State, and Defense as well as the FBI and National Security Agency. There will no longer be any professional objectivity. He will sacrifice to party loyalty, reminiscent of German Nazis and Russian/Chinese Communist Party control.
– Trump will use such control to persecute anyone who opposes him. These are the people he calls the “enemy within,” an oft used Nazi tactic in the 1930s and 1940s. He would go after Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, General Milley, and others. His likely pick for US Attorney General has already suggested that New York State Attorney General Trish James be sent to prison.
Trump is likely to replace Supreme Court Justice Thomas with Eileen Cannon, a judge for the District Court of Florida. She slow walked and created obstacles to Trump’s prosecution for illegal possession of classified documents. Trump may be able to walk away from his 34 cases of felony fraud as we as the charges of sexual assault. Equal justice before the law does not seem to apply to Trump.
Trump has said he will pardon those found guilty of federal crimes associated with the January 6 riot, which he fomented.
The domestic agenda: the economy
– The economy was one of the major reasons for Harris’ defeat, though the US economy out-performed all other major industrialized nations after the epidemic. The public focused however on short term inflation issues rather than the longer term picture.
The Trump economic policy will bring pain to all Americans. His tariffs will make you pay $2600 more per year for consumer goods. Not to mention the impact on our national debt.
The domestic agenda: immigration
If that doesn’t kill our economy, then his plan for mass deportations will. The immediate cost is some $80-250 billion a year, not to mention destroying labor required for agricultural fields, hospital care, and other lower level jobs. These folks also contribute to your Social Security. These costs, plus Trump tax cuts, will add trillions to the national budget and debt. How will he pay for it? Watch health, social security and education come under the hatchet! If you thought Covid was bad, wait until RFK Jr becomes Secretary of Health.
– Beware the presence of the “eminence grise” Elon Musk, whom Trump is expected to make his efficiency czar. Of course, efficiencies can and should be sought. However, with the fox in charge of the chicken coop, expect the Department of Education to be a victim, as well as Health and Welfare and Social Social Security.
– Directly related is my concern about the rise of plutocracy and the new oligarchs. Usually, we think of Russian oligarchs and their outsize influence on national politics. The Supreme Court ruling, Citizens United, empowered the ultra wealthy by allowing unlimited money to go into Political Action Committees. This directly undermines the principle of one person, one vote. With few exceptions, the oligarchs drive economic decisions without due concern to the average citizen. Musk now censors opinions on X that don’t match his views. With the high tariffs on China, his Tesla stocks will sky rocket.
The domestic agenda: society and environment
– Women, minorities and youth will be relegated to second class citizens. Women have fought back and won some abortion case issues in some states. Yet the misogyny and racism of MAGA will grow and The Handmaiden’s Tale might not be just an apocalyptic story.
– Let us not forget the environment. Trump will reverse whatever progress we have made. Air, land and water pollution will get worse, affecting our health and that of the rest of the world.
Angrier and more aggressive
Of course, I could be wrong. Trump might listen to his better angels. He might negotiate peace agreements in the Middle East and Balkans. He might actually compromise on some domestic issues and be inclusive of others.
But forgive me, if I doubt it. The doubts are based on his previous performance, which relied on divide and rule, attacking “others,” and undermining the rule of law and foundations of our government. He has gotten angrier, more aggressive, and more racist.
I, therefore conclude with a line from the Monk TV series. I may be wrong, but I don’t think so.
There will be buyer’s remorse. Americans, welcome to the Fourth Reich!
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A true conservative would vote Harris
I don’t have a lot of Republican friends. That’s true. But for those Republicans I know identity is the reason for their attachment to that party. One was born into a family in Arizona in which no one had ever voted for a Democrat. Another, an otherwise first-rate political analyst, simply believes what Republicans say and doubts what Democrats say. He puts the burden of proof on his opponents.
Neither of these colleagues has ever before supported across-the-board tariffs or deportation of immigrants. They both pride themselves on not being racists. Yet they will vote for a candidate who wants to impose broad tariffs and deport millions. Trump is also a confirmed white supremacist and has promised to restrict minorities from moving to the suburbs. Republican identity trumps [pun intended] their policy preferences. It shifts the burden of proof, so here are some proofs.
The domestic issues
To be fair, traditional Republicans are in a difficult spot. The Republican party they knew and loved favored lower taxes and high defense expenditures. It has evaporated. Trump’s Republican party favors lower taxes only for the truly wealthy and abandonment of defense obligations.
Presidents Reagan and George W. Bush welcomed immigrants. Trump blames them for crimes they haven’t committed, as he did for the Central Park five. He wanted them executed, which is what he wants for immigrants who kill “Americans.” The five, all Black, were innocent.
Traditional Republicans do have reason to dislike Kamala Harris’ policy proposals. They fear extra spending for her housing, healthcare, education, and other “social” programs would explode the deficit. But they should be aware that the data is clear. Trump did that, even before the COVID-19 epidemic. Her spending proposals will have to pass in Congress. Trump’s promise of tariffs he can levy without Congressional approval
There is a decades-long history of lower percentage debt increases under Democratic than Republican presidents:
This is at least in part due to Republican control of one or both Houses of Congress. That’s a good reason for a Republican debt hawk to vote for some down-ballot Republicans. But it is not a good reason to vote for Trump.
Foreign policy
On foreign policy, the situation is even clearer. Both Trump and Harris are hawkish on China and protective of Israel. But Trump reached a trade agreement with China that Beijing didn’t implement. He did nothing to respond. The trade agreement also cost the US budget a great deal due to related agricultural subsidies. They continue. Trump would back Israel to the hilt. Harris wants to rein it in, provide humanitarian assistance to Palestinians, and prevent a wider war.
Trump has threatened to abandon allies in Europe and to end support for Ukraine. Harris backs the NATO allies and Kyiv. Most NATO members are now fulfilling their 2024 NATO commitment to spend 2% of GNP on defense. The big jumps came under Biden, after the Russian expansion of the Ukraine invasion. They did not come under Trump. Allied solidarity in supplying Ukraine has helped to counter Russia’s expansionist impulse and reduce the threat to other “frontline” states.
Putin’s Russia is an expansionist, imperial power trying to correct what it regards as history’s mistakes. If Moscow wins in Ukraine, it will try again in Moldova and eventually Poland and other former Soviet satellites. It is not exaggerating to say Ukrainians are dying to prevent Americans and Europeans from fighting.
Trump has encouraged South Korea and Japan to think about getting their own nuclear weapons. That he thinks would reduce US commitments in Asia. It is a truly bad idea, as it would leave Asian security at risk of a nuclear confrontation. The US would not control the outcome.
Trump has signaled he would not help defend Taiwan. China will take advantage of that signal. Biden’s expressed willingness to support Taiwan has arguably forestalled a Chinese effort to take it over.
If you are a true Republican, vote Harris
Half of Trump’s former cabinet secretaries are not supporting his re-election bid. Nor is his Vice President, about whose safety during the January 6 riot Trump was unconcerned. Former Vice President Cheney, a staunch conservative, and his also conservative daughter Liz are voting for Harris. So too is Mark Milley, Trump’s Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, along with hundreds of other retired generals. Milley regards Trump as “fascist to the core.”
Preventing Trump from doing what he has pledged to do should outweigh any remaining identity issues. A true Republican would vote Harris.
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Hopeful v hopeless: guess who won
Last night’s presidential debate between former President Trump and Vice President Harris conformed to expectations. An ill-tempered Trump lied, rambled, and indulged in conspiracy theories. A smiling and bemused Harris projected herself as an agent of change and optimism. She was amiable and hopeful. He was threatening and hopeless. That’s what really counts.
Policy doesn’t count, but it is still worth considering
The economy: advantage Harris
On the economy, Trump promises little more than steep tariffs on everything, which a president can impose without Congressional approval, and extension of the tax cuts passed in 2017 for the (very) rich. Neither proposition should be attractive to 90% of Americans. He continues to insist that other countries will pay the tariffs, but they will also raise prices whenever they can to recoup whatever they pay. In addition, they will retaliate against US exports. So MAGA means higher prices and loss of market share abroad. Little to celebrate there.
Harris is flogging tax breaks for small business, families, and home construction. Not all of what she proposes makes good sense, and she has not said how she will pay for them. But her proposals respond to what most Americans are concerned about. All of what she wants would have to pass in Congress, which means there is at least a chance to get it right. Even if the Democrats were to gain control of both Houses, it would be difficult to hold together their majorities for proposals that don’t make sense.
Immigration: advantage Harris
This is Trump’s strong suit, but he played his hand poorly. He repeatedly claimed that immigrants are increasing the crime rate in the US. He even claimed that crime is down in Venezuela and other countries because all the criminals are being sent to the US. Harris didn’t respond forcefully on these points. I suppose she was wary of championing immigration. But crime is down in the US and it is not down in Venezuela and other migrant-exporting countries.
Harris hit a solid note with her response. She rightfully claimed Trump had blocked a bipartisan immigration bill that would have sharply increased the number of agents on the border. She did not say what a lot of us know: America needs immigrants. The labor market is tight and immigrants are prolific entrepreneurs who found a large number of new, small companies.
Foreign policy: advantage Harris
Trump was at pains to claim that he got NATO countries to ante up and that the world loves him. But America’s allies have been increasing military expenditures at least as fast under Biden. Trump repeated his claim that he would end the Ukraine war by negotiation before he even took office. The only way he could do that is by signaling lack of support for Ukraine. Trump was only able to cite Hungary’s would-be dictator, Viktor Orban, as a leader who appreciates him. Of course Putin, Xi, and Kim are also in that camp, but they are even less to Trump’s credit.
Harris cited Trump’s love affairs with those miscreants, as well as with the Taliban, as evidence of his failure to align the US with its democratic friends and allies. Even more important is that he failed to get anything worthwhile from his dreadful friends. Harris was effective in parrying Trump’s criticism of the Afghanistan withdrawal, which he had negotiated before Biden won the 2020 election.
Next
I expect the polls to show a visible jump for Harris in the next couple of weeks. She demonstrated at the debate a demeanor, temperament, and acuity that contrasted sharply with Trump’s. He looked and played the part of a tired incumbent. His ideas, insofar as he had any, were stale. Taylor Swift got it right. Kamala Harris will be the next President. That will give the Republicans time to end their romance with a crooked flim-flam man.
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Obamas let loose, but Harris needs more
Michelle Obama led the assault:
Barack Obama delivered the coup de grâce:
Rhetorical skills however are not all that matters in determining who the next president will be. Harris has already demonstrated that she is the same league with the Obamas when it comes to projecting hope and skewering Donald Trump. She is more than competitive with him in both the national polls and the battleground states. What could trip her up?
Harris’ hurdles
Trump is trying to make Harris out to be an extremist and a communist. That’s not going to work on the merits, though I suppose his repetition of the charges will help solidify his base. More likely, one of these issues will prove problematic:
- Immigration: Trump’s claims to have shut down the border are bogus. In addition he blocked a bipartisan effort in Congress to mitigate the problem of illegal immigration. But there is a big difference between Democrats and Republicans on immigration. Most voters do not however favor the mass expulsion that Trump advocates.
- The economy: Growth has held up well under Biden, but inflation has pretty much erased wage gains and higher interest rates have cut into home affordability. The number of jobs has exploded, but unemployment is up marginally due to more people entering the work force. Still, many job markets are still tight and immigrant workers are needed.
- Crime: Violent crime rates are back down to pre-pandemic levels, but public perception of crime is up, especially among Republicans. Crime in the US is largely a local and state issue, not a Federal one. But it has nevertheless often played a role in presidential elections. Harris’ record as a prosecutor should lend her at least some credibility on crime.
What doesn’t matter
Barring a disaster in Ukraine, foreign policy won’t matter much. All American politicians are now belligerent on China. Trump’s tariff proposals would be expensive for American consumers, but the Democrats haven’t been able to exploit that angle since they have kept his previous round of tariff increases. The Democrats are split on Gaza, but Trump has no way of exploiting the split to gain Arab American votes in Michigan because of his own over-the-top pro-Israel record. Venezuelan American votes count in Florida, but Biden doesn’t seem to be able to do what they want: chase the illegitimate President Maduro out of the country.
Ads will flood the airwaves between now and November 5, but there is little evidence they have a lot of impact. I suppose they would if one side or the other desists, but they won’t. Celebrity endorsements don’t seem critical either. I still hope Taylor Swift, who might be the exception, comes down hard for Harris.
Ground game does matter
“Ground game,” the term of art for retail politicking to convince voters one-to-one and get them to the polls, does matter. It is expensive and difficult to organize. Biden by all accounts had a big advantage over Trump in both money and organization in the battleground states. Harris has inherited that advantage. She now needs to ensure that her campaign uses it effectively. The Trump campaign is working hard to blunt her offensive by limiting who votes and whether their votes are counted.
I have no doubt Walz tonight and Harris tomorrow night will prove themselves worthy at the DNC. He knows how to inspire a team. She knows how to lead one toward the goal. Lots can still happen in the days, weeks, and months remaining. But there is a good chance America will restore itself and end the Trump plague once and for all.
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