Tag: United Arab Emirates
America is back, but where and how is not yet clear
President Biden today in two appearances at the State Department–one for the staff and one to address foreign policy–was anxious to say that America is back to diplomacy, to the defense of democracy, human rights, and the rule of law, and to cooperating with allies. His foreign policy will, he said, benefit Americans, whose security and welfare will be primary goals.
He is clear enough about Russia and China. He’ll be much tougher on the former than Trump, calling out its repression and even murder of dissidents and countering cyberhacking and election interference, while seeking areas of common interest like the already extended limits on strategic nuclear weapons. On China, the policy will be similar to Trump’s in aiming to compete as well as cooperate, but with more attention to human rights and less inclination to trade wars, though the tariffs don’t appear to be coming down yet.
In the Middle East, Biden was clear about one thing: he wants a negotiated end to the war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen and will cut off American support to the Saudis and Emiratis. So much materiel has already been transferred that this make take some time to have a logistical impact, but the psychological impact will be immediate. The Hadi government the Saudis and Emiratis have backed is going to have to cut a deal or step aside so someone else can. It is unclear what the Houthis will be willing to yield, as they currently have the upper hand in much of the fighting, but we’ll find out soon enough.
Biden has also made it clear he is prepared to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran Nuclear Deal) if Tehran does likewise. But the sequencing of the respective returns, and precisely what they amount to in terms of sanctions relief and nuclear reversal, are still unclear. So is any future nuclear agenda: the Iranians have so far refused widening, deepening, or prolonging the JCPOA.
On the rest of the Middle East, Biden has left things unclear. He has said little or nothing about:
- Syria, where the US still has forces pursuing ISIS, protecting oil wells, and cooperating with Kurdish-led insurgents regarded as terrorists by NATO ally Turkey,
- Palestine, though he has renewed diplomatic contacts with the Palestinian Authority and will presumably return to the two-state goal Trump tried to obliterate,
- Iraq, where US forces were drawn down to 2500 by his predecessor,
- Libya, where the UN has been making some apparent progress on ending the civil war.
- Egypt, where President Sisi has imposed a renewed autocracy at least as ferocious as either of his two immediate predecessors.
Each of these countries is at least as important to the United States as Yemen, but it is unclear what “America is back” means to them. Americans are tired of these longstanding messes, whose resolution is hard to tie directly to American security and welfare, even if we know that withdrawal from them could be costly.
America is really good at getting in, especially if can be done with warplanes and troops. It is much harder to get out, which requires diplomacy. But at least we now have a president who believes in diplomacy and is prepared to back America’s diplomats.
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Stevenson’s army, January 28
– SecState Blinken covers many topics.
Here’s DOS transcript.
Freeze on arms sales to UAE, Saudi Arabia. Review of US troop shift from Germany. New team on arms control.
Rapid ouster of Trump loyalists. Controversy over new official handling Iran.DHS warns of domestic extremists.
Last week I praised new book on stealth technology, which raised issue of how much to disclose publicly. SAIS prof Tom Mahnken has ideas on how to handle such problems.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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A warm welcome to the no swagger Secretary of State!
Newly confirmed Secretary of State Blinken appeared at a press briefing today. The difference was dramatic. Secretary’s Pompeo bragged about his “swagger.” Blinken isn’t bragging and there was no swagger, just a deliberate and careful (though not over-cautious) effort to re-assert American competence and leadership. Blinken is not going to please those who won’t settle for less than hyperbolic denunciation of the Chinese Communist Party and over-the-top admiration for Russian President Putin, but he doesn’t mince words. He was unequivocal in denouncing Beijing’s genocide of Uighurs and Moscow’s effort to murder Alexei Navalny.
He was also anxious to allay the concerns of allies and friends, most of whom have found the Trump Administration little short of a disaster. Biden and Blinken see friendly foreigners as force multipliers, not burdens. They aren’t going engage in the Europe-baiting and South Korea-slamming that Trump’s people enjoyed. There will be differences with friends and allies, but this Administration will try to handle them calmly and professionally, not provocatively and counterproductively.
That will be true for individuals and issues as well. Blinken has already asked Zal Khalilzad, who has negotiated an agreement with the Taliban for US withdrawal from Afghanistan, to stay on. The Administration is reviewing a Trump decision on declaring the Houthis in Yemen terrorists that could hinder assistance to the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Blinken praises Trump’s “Abrahamic” agreements between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and Israel and Bahrain, though he stayed silent on whether the Administration will stick with Trump’s decision to recognize Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, which was a change in US policy offered as a quid pro quo for normalization of Morocco’s relationship with Israel.
Blinken’s strong endorsement of the free press and its role in democracy is just as welcome as his calm and professionalism. In the wake of an administration that regarded the best of the press as the “enemies of the people,” it is truly a pleasure to hear that the new administration welcomes interaction with the press and public scrutiny. A warm welcome to the no swagger Secretary of State!
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Bid farewell to the treasons of Trump
It’s been hard, but we’ve almost made it to the other side. Now comes a time for rebuilding, or in Biden terms building back better.
Domestic issues will take first priority: the epidemic, the economy, social cleavages. Biden will need to get a lot more needles into arms, a lot more jobs returned and created, a lot of injustices to black and brown people, immigrants, women, college students, and LGBTQ people rectified. Trump’s white supremacist and 2nd Amendment supporters need to know that LAW AND ORDER applies to them as well as to everyone else. Successful prosecution of the January 6 insurrectionists is critical, including an eventual conviction of Trump in the Senate.
Current Majority Leader McConnell is not only open to that possibility but has blamed Trump for provoking the January 6 insurrection:
The mob was fed lies.
This is important, as it opens the a possibility of purging Trumpism from the Republican Party and eventually also from the Senate and House. Remnants will persist, but American politics will return to a much better place if Republicans and Democrats once again come to share a common factual basis rather than being distracted constantly by Trump’s lies.
International issues will be in capable hands at the State Department, National Security Council, and the Defense Department. But they can’t do everything at once. The early moves have been telegraphed: re-entry into the Iran nuclear deal (hard) and the Paris climate agreement (easy) as well as an effort to negotiate with Russia extended limits on strategic nuclear weapons. But the enemy also gets a vote on priorities. Surprise challenges could come from North Korea, China, or Islamist extremists. Those should not distract the Bidenists from their chosen path: to restore American leadership on a multilateral basis and make the world order more rules-based than it has been for the last four years.
My own focus is on what this means for the Balkans and the Middle East.
In the Balkans it is clear: Washington needs to develop a common vision with the European Union and its member states, then implement it with vigor to stem the tide of Russian and Chinese influence and hasten the day when the countries of the region will all qualify for accession to the EU.
In the Middle East, the way forward is far less clear, because the region lacks a clear direction and American interest has declined. I might prefer that the US favor democracy and human rights, but the fact is there are few Middle East countries in which we’ll find much prospect of either. The trick will be cooperating with autocratic friends (read Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and others) without encouraging their human rights abuses. Biden is already committed, as I understand it, to ending US support for the war in Yemen, which will displease Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.
The Israel/Palestine equation will be particularly difficult to solve, as Trump has intentionally lessened the prospects for the two-state solution America has favored. Biden won’t want to reverse the move of the US Embassy to Jerusalem, and the so-called Abrahamic accords between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain he welcomed. But he could tilt in favor of the Palestinians by renewing US contributions to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) and re-establishing a consulate in East Jerusalem, making it clear it will become an embassy once a Palestinian state is formed and recognized.
The world will be watching. Expectations of Biden are high. Disappointments and failures are inevitable, but I do hope America can return to its proper role as a leader in the democratic world!
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Stevenson’s army, December 11
US changed policy on Morocco in order to get Israeli-Morocco agreement, but angering Sen. Inhofe. More background from NYT.
Senate failed to block UAE arms sale.
Sen. Paul delays NDAA because of Afghanistan; government shutdown threatened.
US helps Taliban by attacking ISIS.
At last, sanctions against Turkey.
Good reads from CNAS: on revising war powers; and on revising export controls.
Not sure of their criteria, but Hill has list of top lobbyists.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 9
Biden defends it.
Dean Cohen opposes it. As does Fred Kaplan.
Politico explains it. Austin also developed a close relationship with Biden’s late son, Beau, when he served on Austin’s staff in Iraq in 2008 and 2009, said one source close to the discussions, who asked not to be named to discuss private matters. Austin and the younger Biden attended Mass together, sitting side-by-side almost every Sunday, and they kept in touch after Beau returned from his deployment.
And Biden doesn’t want push-back from DOD.
My take: most Biden appointments reflect his preference for people he knows and is comfortable with. Austin also seem more likely to be compliant than someone who is independent-minded and has a separate base.
Here’s a 2 year old FP story telling how civilians were being sidelined in DOD.
Senate votes today on the NDAA conference report and on blocking the UAE arms sale. Gen. Mattis is lobbying on the issue.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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