Tag: United Nations
The other North Korean challenge
I don’t write much about North Korea, because I don’t know a lot about it. But I’m convinced it poses a potentially enormous challenge on two fronts:
- as a nuclear power
- as a collapsed state
Bruce Bennett’s presentation on the second challenge at Heritage Foundation October 17 strikes me as generally well-informed, even if might quarrel on details (I don’t much like the idea of airdropping humanitarian assistance, for example). So I’m posting it here, along with a link to his RAND study on Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse. Those who think the United States doesn’t need a capacity to plan for and deal with weak, fragile or collapsed states–in this case in cooperation with South Korea–should take note:
As Bennett points out, the issue is not whether we would want to intervene, but whether we would have to in order to avoid serious risks to our own national security as a result of North Korean collapse. It is clear that any intervention would have to be a combined military/civilian operation.
I am hoping to have a post up soon on the UN-mandated Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea Public Hearing, held here at SAIS this week. Human rights violations are a clear warning sign of state collapse.
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Peace picks, October 28 – November 1
Out early this week:
1. Impact of Donor Counter-Terrorism Measures on Principled Humanitarian Action
Monday, October 28, 2013 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM
CSIS – 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC
Introductory Remarks by: Sam Worthington , President & CEO, InterAction
Panel Discussion:
Valerie Amos Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, United Nations
Jan Egeland Secretary General, Norwegian Refugee Council
Ambassador Daniel Fried Coordinator of Sanctions Policy, U.S. State Department
Ambassador William Garvelink Senior Adviser, CSIS Project on U.S. Leadership in Development and Former U.S. Ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Moderated by: Daniel Runde Director of the Project on Prosperity and Development and William A. Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis, CSIS
Please RSVP to PPD@csis.org.
Despite the global attention to counter-terrorism and human rights issues, the impact of counter-terrorism measures on humanitarian action has not been studied in detail. To address this gap, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Norwegian Refugee Council released a report in July 2013 entitled the Study of the Impact of Donor Counter-Terrorism Measures on Principled Humanitarian Action. The report takes a comprehensive look at how counter-terror measures are impacting the ability of humanitarian agencies to respond to emergencies, especially in countries on the front lines of the war on terror, and makes recommendations on how to reconcile these measures with the humanitarian imperative. Join us for a conversation with representatives from the United Nations, the Norwegian Refugee Council, and the United States Government as they discuss the impact of these restrictions in countries such as Afghanistan, Somalia, and the West Bank and Gaza, and in countries of possible future impact, including Mali, Pakistan, and Yemen.
2. WOMEN AND PEACEBUILDING: WOMEN’S ROLES IN POLITICAL TRANSITIONS IN YEMEN AND THE REGION
Monday, October 28, 2013 2:30 – 4:00 p.m.
National Democratic Institute 8th Floor Board Room 455 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, D.C.
And streaming online at: www.ndi.org/live
With Amat Al Alim Alsoswa, Delegate, Yemen National Dialogue Conference and former Minister of Human Rights
Susan Markham, Director, Women’s Political Participation, NDI
Summer Lopez, Regional Coordinator for the Middle East (Acting) Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance, USAID
The importance of including women in peace negotiations, transitional governments and long-term political processes is increasingly recognized by national and international bodies as critical for the stability of emerging democracies. In each stage of a country’s transition, whether entrenched in conflict or moving forward in reconciliation, there are opportunities available for women’s inclusion that can have a profound effect on the successful outcome of a country’s transition of power, peace and security.
This discussion will draw upon Yemen’s National Dialogue process and examples from ongoing transitions in the Middle East and North Africa to highlight challenges and lessons learned for promoting women’s participation in peace negotiations and political transitions.
Please RSVP via this webform.
3. Political Turmoil, Human Costs: Reflections on the Kashmir Conflict
3:00 PM – 4:30 PM EST
REGISTER TO ATTEND
With incidents along their disputed border still relatively common, India and Pakistan’s decades-old quarrel over Kashmir shows little hope of subsiding. Join Kashmir-born author and journalist Rahul Pandita for a discussion of the conflict and his new memoir of his childhood in and exile from Kashmir, Our Moon Has Blood Clots(Random House India, 2013).
Pandita will offer a rare perspective on the dispute, combining political analysis with the personal experience of growing up as part of a religious minority group in one of the world’s most unstable regions. Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis will moderate.
RAHUL PANDITA
Rahul Pandita is a journalist and author based in New Delhi. He was the 2010 recipient of the International Red Cross award for conflict reporting, and has written extensively about conflict in Iraq, Sri Lanka, and Kashmir.
ASHLEY J. TELLIS
Ashley J. Tellis is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues.
4. New Leadership in Tehran: Time for Rapprochement?
DATE / TIME Monday, October 28, 2013 / 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
LOCATION Elliott School of International Affairs, SMPA 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052 (map)
SPEAKER(S) John Limbert, Dr. Shireen Hunter
Ambassador John Limbert, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran
Dr. Shireen Hunter, Visiting Fellow, Center for Christian Muslim Understanding and Director, Carnegie Endowment Project on reformist Islam
The George Washington University International Affairs Society and the American Iranian Council will be hosting ‘New Leadership in Iran: Time for Rapprochement?’, a conference that will identify the prospects and mechanisms for a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran relations. The conference aims to build upon the momentum created by the election of moderate Dr. Hassan Rouhani as Iranian President, President Obama’s engagement policy with Tehran and the recent events in Geneva and at the United Nations General Assembly to generate ideas for a possible settlement of the nuclear dossier.
RSVP: bit.ly/GThrgi
Sponsored by the GW International Affairs Society and the American Iranian Council
5. Regional Cooperation: An Imperative for Transatlantic Defense
October 29, 2013 – 1:30 pm
1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor
Washington, DC
An address and discussion with
H.E. Carl Haglund
Minster of Defense
Republic of Finland
Introduced and Moderated by
Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President
Atlantic Council
Please join the Atlantic Council for an address by, and discussion with, Finnish Minister of Defense Carl Haglund, who will detail the importance of regional cooperation for transatlantic security.
Building on the successes of Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO), Minister Haglund will make a case for NATO member and partner countries to follow a similar framework to sustain present-day interoperability levels and enhance military capabilities. NORDEFCO’s five members states—Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden—use regional networking to increase their interoperability via cross-border cooperation, build-up and maintain necessary military capabilities, and provide cost-effective contributions to international efforts.
Representatives of the press are welcome, and all the proceedings of this event are on-the-record.
When you arrive, please use the the West Tower elevators.
Business attire is requested.
If you encounter problems with the registration process, please contact us.
Bios
H.E. Carl Haglund has been the minister of defense of Finland since July 5, 2012. Previously, he served as the party leader of the Swedish People’s Party, and from 2009 to 2012 he was a member of the European Parliament. In 2008, he assumed the position of state secretary for the minister of culture and sport, and in 2007 he was an adviser to the ministers of the Swedish People’s Party.
6. Iraq’s Transition: Remarks by Iraqi Prime Minister H.E. Mr. Noori al-Maliki
USIP – Thursday, October 31, 2013 10:00am
The United States Institute of Peace will host Iraqi Prime Minister H.E. Mr. Noori al-Maliki for public remarks and a discussion on U.S.-Iraq relations, and the current challenges facing Iraq and the region.
Webcast: This event will be webcast live beginning at 10:00am ET on October 31.
Iraq has made significant progress since the last of U.S. troops left the country in December 2011, but continues to face serious challenges. Iraq’s economy became stronger, provincial and regional elections were organized, and the country has made steady steps toward regaining its regional and international stature. At the same time, the country is struggling with high levels of violence and other spillover effects from Syria, as it tries to hold national elections in 2014 and find a workable common vision of governance.
To discuss these matters and more, kindly join us for what promises to be an interesting event at 10:00-11:30am on October 31, 2013 at USIP’s Headquarters in Washington D.C. Follow the conversation on Twitter with @USIP, @IraqiEmbassyUSA, and #USIPIraq.
Agenda:
Jim Marshall, Opening Remarks and Moderator President, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Beth Jones, Introductory Remarks Acting Assistant Secretary of State – Near Eastern Affairs
H.E. Noori al-Maliki, Keynote Remarks Prime Minister of Republic of Iraq
Moderated discussion
7. The Way Forward in Afghanistan: Embracing Opportunity in the Midst of Transition
Thursday October 31, 2013 12:15-1:45pm
New America Foundation
Since 2001, the United States has been heavily engaged in Afghanistan. The failures of this effort have been well documented, but what has often been overlooked are the immense gains that have been achieved.
As Afghanistan enters a turbulent transition period, including presidential elections in April 2014, the ongoing transition from U.S.-led to Afghan-led security operations, and the draw down of U.S. troops, it is important that U.S. policymakers keep the full picture in mind.
Calls for the United States to walk away from Afghanistan ignore the progress that has been made, and such a result would be catastrophic for the people of Afghanistan. It would also call into question the last 12 years of U.S.efforts in the country.
The New America Foundation and the Alliance in Support of the Afghan People are pleased to invite you to a discussion about the prospects for Afghanistan’s future,in light of past progress and upcoming challenges.
Featured Speakers:
Haseeb Humayoon
Member of Afghanistan 1400
Clare Lockhart
President, Institute for State Effectiveness
David Sedney
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan,
Pakistan, and Central Asia
Eleanor Smeal
President, Feminist Majority Foundation
Moderator:
Senior Fellow, New America Foundation
To RSVP for the event, click on the red button or go to the event page:
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/the_way_forward_in_afghanistan
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The gulf with the Gulf
Yesterday was Gulf day. I spent part of the morning reading Christopher Davidson, who thinks the Gulf monarchies are headed for collapse due to internal challenges, their need for Western support, Iran’s growing power and their own disunity. Then I turned to Greg Gause, who attributes their resilience to the oil-greased coalitions and external networks they have created to support their rule. He predicts their survival.
At lunch I ambled across the way to CSIS’s new mansion to hear Abdullah al Shayji, chair of political science at Kuwait University and unofficial Gulf spokeperson, who was much exorcised over America’s response to Iran’s “charm offensive,” which he said could not have come at a worse time. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was already at odds with the US. The Gulf was not warned or consulted about the phone call between Iranian President Rouhani and President Obama. Saudi Arabia’s refusal to occupy the UN Security Council seat it fought hard to get was a signal of displeasure. The divergences between the GCC and the US range across the Middle East: Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Iraq and Palestine, in addition to Iran.
On top of this, US oil and gas production is increasing. China is now a bigger oil importer than the US and gets a lot more of its supplies from the Gulf. Washington is increasingly seen as dysfunctional because of its partisan bickering. Its budget problems seem insoluble. American credibility is declining. The Gulf views the US as unreliable. Read more
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Wise words from an elder statesman
For 48 years, UN Deputy Secretary General Jan Eliasson has been a key player in global diplomacy, with previous stints as Swedish ambassador to the United States and Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs. On Wednesday, Eliasson spoke about the current state of global diplomacy and the UN’s post-2015 development strategy, to a large crowd at Brookings.
Eliasson described this year’s meeting of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) as unusually productive. In the current age of “a la carte multilateralism,” there is always a new pressing issue that confronts the international community. Today, such issues as the Syrian refugee crisis, Iran’s nuclear program, and the immigration disaster off the coast of Italy are all part of a day’s work for the UN.
The major discussion at the UNGA this year revolved around Syria. The Assad regime has taken a positive step towards dismantling its chemical weapons arsenal, but “action against chemical weapons is just one step on the road to peace in Syria.” The next step to resolving the conflict lies in increased aid to the millions of people displaced inside and outside the country. In order to tackle this issue, the regime must give the United Nations and other humanitarian organizations access to the people inside Syria’s borders. With 1 million children displaced by the crisis and the cold winter months fast approaching, the time to act is now. Without a ceasefire, the international community can only do so much to help the Syrian people.
The UNGA also saw positive developments with the newly elected Iranian leadership and its nuclear program. Iranian President Rouhani has opened up to the international community since his election, making clear his willingness to negotiate with the P5+1 on the future of the nuclear program. But Eliasson hopes Rouhani’s opening to the West is tested and verified. The sanctions placed on Iran have been successful at crippling the country’s economy, and it will be vital to the negotiations to lift those sanctions only when a significant deal is reached.
Eliasson also discussed the UN Millennium Development goals, which were established in 2000 with the objective of achieving objectives in global health, poverty eradication, education, gender equality, sustainability, and development funding by 2015. With the deadline approaching, the United Nations has made significant progress—global poverty has been cut in half, education for girls in Africa has become more available, and malaria deaths have decreased substantially. But there are also areas that require more attention, such as maternal health, sanitation, and clean drinking water.
As the UN continues to make progress toward the Millennium Development goals, a new set of objectives will look to address sustainability, human rights and rule of law, climate change, and the eradication of extreme poverty. Looking ahead, prevention is going to be key to the success of the UN development agenda. Eliasson said that human rights violations are a major sign that a crisis is imminent. The UN needs to have a way to react quickly to prevent major conflicts.
Reaching into his back pocket to pull out his mini version of the UN Charter, Eliasson said he is convinced that there is unharnessed potential in chapter six of the document, “The Pacific Settlement of Disputes.” It highlights the use of diplomacy, in contrast to chapter seven’s possible use of military force. The military actions of the last decade have caused people to become numb to the effects of the use of force. We have forgotten about the benefits of diplomatic negotiations. Eliasson ended by sharing his four reasons why diplomacy succeeds or fails:
- The careful use of words can make or break diplomatic talks. Words are the diplomat’s most important tool.
- Timing is key. We most often do things too late.
- Everyone involved in negotiations must be culturally sensitive, by respecting the culture, history, and traditions of the groups involved.
- Personal relations are the most important aspect to diplomacy.
Trust is vital. It is crucial to create and build upon personal relationships in order to succeed. Eliasson has practiced what he preaches.
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The Syrian Coalition speaks
University of Arkansas Professor Najib Ghadbian, the Syrian Opposition Coalition representative to the United States, stopped by SAIS today for an all too rare public presentation, followed by Q and A. I moderated, though I confess both speaker and audience distinguished themselves in moderation. Revolutionaries should always be so reasonable. The event should be up on C-Span soon.
Najib outlined the main problems the Coalition faces in its effort to create an inclusive, secular and free democracy:
- The humanitarian catastrophe: 2.5 million Syrians are refugees, 5 million are internally displaced. Opposition funding has gone predominantly to meet their needs. Access is a major issue, as liberated areas are under frequent attack. But the Coalition’s Assistance Coordination Unit is now functioning well after some initial difficulties.
- Radicalization: Regime killing and weak support from outside Syria for moderates has strengthened extremists, who have proven effective on the battlefield. Jabhat al Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), the former more Syrian and the latter more closely affiliated with Al Qaeda, are big and growing problems. ISIS in particular is responsible for mass atrocities attributed to the opposition.
- Governance: In liberated areas, local revolutionary councils are trying to fill the vacuum left by withdrawal of state institutions, some more successfully than others. The Coalition is expected to form and approve an interim government at its next meeting in Istanbul in early November. This will be a technocratic stopgap until the transitional government called for in the June 2012 Geneva communique is formed.
- Ending the conflict: The Coalition favors a political end to the conflict, but it must be one that leads to a democratic outcome. This is not possible with Bashar al Asad still in the presidency. The idea of his conducting elections next year is completely unacceptable. In order to go to a Geneva 2 conference next month or whenever it is scheduled, the Coalition will need the support not only of the US but also Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The Coalition will also want to see the withdrawal of Hizbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, both of which are fighting inside Syria.
The Coalition needs to meet these challenges by providing humanitarian assistance, isolating and countering extremists, delivering government services and uniting to negotiate an end to the conflict. It is unlikely any negotiation can be successful unless there is a change in the military situation on the ground. The Coalition-linked Supreme Military Council needs increased resources, training and professionalization. Funding to extremists should be blocked. The Coalition will not try to expand in their direction.
Asked about protection for minorities, in particular Alawites, after Bashar al Asad is gone, Najib suggested that international peacekeepers or some form of elite units might be required. In any event, it is clear that the Asad regime is not protecting Alawites so much as it is putting them at risk. There are prominent Alawites within the opposition. Security sector reform, including consolidation of Syria’s 16 existing security agencies into a single internal and a single external service, will be a priority. The Day After report and ongoing project will be helpful, especially on security sector reform and rule of law.
Syria is not nearly as divided ethnically (or in sectarian terms) as Bosnia at the end of its war. Most Kurds are with the opposition. Administrative decentralization will be important in the post-Asad era, but federalization of the Iraqi variety is not in the cards because the Kurdish population is not as concentrated in one geographic area.
From the United States, the Coalition is looking for strong and more consistent support. While the Coalition supports US/Russia agreement, Washington made a mistake to embark on dismantling the regime’s chemical weapons capability without also doing something about Asad’s ferocious use of the Syrian air force against liberated areas. Conventional weapons have killed many more Syrians than chemical weapons. The military training being conducted in Jordan for the opposition should not be secret. It should be taken over by the Defense Department and enlarged to a much grander scale. US leadership and coordination is needed to ensure that the disparate supporters of the Coalition are all working in the same direction, as recommended in the recent International Crisis Group report.
I spent a summer in Damascus not too many years ago studying Arabic. The desire of ordinary Syrians, and even those close the regime, for freedom and democracy was palpable. The people I talked with would be pleased to hear what the Coalition representative had to say. But they would ask how much longer the killing will last.
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Trouble in the heart of Africa
Former student Matthias-Sönke Witt (@msbcw) offers a second post from his perch in Ituri:
The crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) has garnered increased media attention recently, following the adoption of a resolution by the UN Security Council and a widely quoted press statement this week by Doctors Without Borders (MSF). While the latter rightly directed attention to the unfolding humanitarian disaster in the country, caused by massive internal displacement, growing food insecurity, and the collapse of the already weak health care system, the former naturally focused on political and security aspects of the crisis. The UN resolution calls for extensive disarmament efforts, the preparation of new elections according to a roadmap decided upon during April peace talks, the promotion and protection of human rights, and security sector reform. Those are some ambitious demands, given the reality on the ground.
The situation is dire: since a coalition of multiple rebel groups threw out President François Bozizé in March 2013, the already weak state authority throughout the country has collapsed entirely. The rebel alliance, called “Seleka” after the Sango word for “union,” was a coalition of necessity, united in their goal of ousting Bozizé and taking over Bangui, the country’s capital.
Their military leader, an old foe of Bozizé’s named Michel Djotodia, was quickly recognized as the transitional head of state at a regional summit in neighboring Chad, but lost control and influence over most Seleka-affiliated groups as soon as he took up his governing duties. He is now the de jure leader of a state whose security apparatus has all but disappeared, resulting in widespread looting, extrajudicial killings, and a rapid rise in violence throughout the country.
Massive displacement, a consequence of escalating violence, has left fields unattended and food supply short. Aid agencies estimate the total number of internally displaced people s at over 300,000 – an overwhelming number, considering the country’s total population of approximately 4.5 million. Hospitals and health centers have been abandoned or destroyed.
An African Union peacekeeping mission, known as MICOPAX, has been expanded to over 1000 troops in recent months. It is difficult to see how this force can bring stability to the country, as it has been present since 2008 and failed to stand in the way of the most recent rebellion. It will most likely take decisive action from international actors in addition to the African Union if the downward spiral towards complete state failure is to be stopped anytime soon.
French President Hollande has been banging the drums for more international support to stabilize the country, warning of potential regional spillover should its plunge into anarchy not be averted any time soon. He has also announced an increase in the number of French troops, who presently have only a small contingent stationed in Bangui, securing the international airport and a few neighborhoods deemed essential to French interests in the country.
Hollande’s concerns are clear to regional observers. The Central African Republic has been linked to regional conflict throughout its troubled post-colonial past.
Former Congolese rebel leader Jean-Pierre Bemba is currently on trial at the International Criminal Court in The Hague for atrocities his troops committed in Centrafrique in 2002, when now-ousted François Bozizé tried to take power through a military coup for the first time. Rebel groups supported by Chad and Sudan have fought proxy wars on CAR territory during the height of the Darfur conflict not too long ago. Joseph Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) has sought refuge in the southern CAR and northern Democratic Republic of the Congo since being ousted from northern Uganda. While US-trained Ugandan and Congolese troops are still actively uprooting LRA camps in the area, the current state of chaos and confusion in Centrafrique could help this dwindling rebel movement regain strength and momentum on CAR soil.
In addition, the stretch of Centrafrique bordering South Sudan and the DRC has seen regional tensions between migrating pastoralists and local communities even before the current escalation of violence. The increased presence of armed groups in the region could serve to further escalate an existing problem.
What Hollande is probably most afraid of, however, is the possibility of an anarchic safe-haven for terrorist rebel groups from West Africa and the Sahel region, a concern echoed by researchers from the International Crisis Group, who fear that Centrafrique might become a training ground for Nigerian Boko Haram.
While regional spillovers have not yet materialized, Hollande’s warning reflects France’s growing uneasiness over developments in central Africa as a whole. Whether his request for international support will be honored remains to be seen, but it is in nobody’s interest to see the CAR spiral further out of control than it already has. Neighboring countries as well as the African Union lack the necessary resources and political will, respectively. Long-term international commitment from beyond Africa to security sector reform and disarmament is needed sooner rather than later if total state failure is to be avoided.
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