Tag: United Stataes
Stevenson’s army, September 16
Pew survey finds falling world views of US
Jeffrey Goldberg lists winners and losers in new Israel-UAE-Bahrain agreements.
Here’s another F-35 to UAE report.
WSJ says US is using Magnitsky Act to impose sanctions on Chinese companies helping to build overseas bases.
Politico sees a toxic feud between DNI & intelligence committees.
As you know, I worked for Joe Biden many years ago [1981-5]. FP’s James Traub has a very good analysis of how Biden thinks about foreign policy.
Just before the Jewish High Holy Days, there’s a discouraging report on the levels of ignorance about the Holocaust among younger Americans.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Impeachment is certain, but when?
The case against President Trump is solid: obstruction of justice documented by Special Counsel Mueller, abuse of power for personal benefit by extorting judicial cooperation from Ukraine, inviting and accepting foreign campaign assistance even in public, and who knows how many financial malfeasances involving laundering money for Russian oligarchs and Saudi princes. The Democratic majority in the House will no doubt vote solidly to impeach, likely joined by a scattering of Republicans. There is no way that having opened an impeachment inquiry the Democrats can now back off, allowing Trump to run in 2020 claiming that even his opposition knows he did nothing wrong.
The only question is when. The Democrats are insisting on moving quickly, which could mean impeachment before the end of this year. I think that would be a mistake. Impeachment would then be a distant memory a year from now, negated at least in part by a quick acquittal in the Senate. The next election is going to be a referendum on Trump, no matter what else appears to be at stake. Better for the Democrats to move with all deliberate speed, piling up the evidence and making it public over the next 10 or 11 months. They could then impeach Trump without leaving enough time for a trial in the Senate, demonstrating that they are prepared to live with the verdict of the American people.
That strikes me as a much better move. Convincing the 20 Senate Republicans needed for a 2/3 majority to abandon Trump is a tall order. The Republican party is disciplined and wholly under the President’s control. But more than half the country already believes he should be impeached, and almost as many people believe he should be removed from office. Why not rely on the good judgment of the citizens, especially after another year of unveiling the many high crimes and misdemeanors Trump is guilty of?
I suppose the argument against this approach is that citizens want their representatives to deliver legislation and services, not only focus on impeaching Trump. But it should be easier to continue legislating, overseeing, and appropriating if impeachment is not on a fast track. In fact, a fast track may not be feasible, as Administration resistance to subpoenas will need to be challenged in court. It is reasonable to think that a thorough impeachment investigation will take at least another 8-10 months. Why not make a virtue of necessity?
Speaker Pelosi is the savviest politician in Washington these days. She’ll make the call on when to impeach, and for what offenses. So far, she is believed to want things to move expeditiously. That’s smart, since otherwise it could all bog down. But I won’t be surprised if she is quietly contemplating a process that lasts another year, with ample subpoenas, public hearings, and publication of more documents and text messages. It is clear to me that Trump runs several criminal enterprises. But that is still not clear to more than 40% of the population. If even a quarter of those can be convinced, defeat for Trump on November 3 next year is certain.
If Trump wins a second term, it will become impossible to impeach him again. Impeachment is an all or nothing proposition. I wouldn’t want the outcome to depend on the Senate more than on American citizens who vote.
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No smear
Read Bill Taylor. His opening statement in the House yesterday illustrates vividly why it is so important to have a professional, disciplined, and honest Foreign Service.
Bill, who was my colleague at the US Institute of Peace 10 years ago, testifies to the existence of a communications channel from President Trump to Ukrainian President Zelensky that was demanding investigations of the 2016 election and of Joe Biden’s son in exchange for freeing up military assistance and allowing Zelensky a visit to the White House. The crux of the matter is this, in Bill’s words:
The irregular policy channel was running contrary to goals of longstanding U.S. policy.
Informal channels are common and often useful in diplomacy. Bill was lucky he even knew about this one. Often they bypass the official Chief of Mission entirely. Trump is entitled to use his friends to convey messages to a foreign head of state if he likes.
But in this case the informal channel really was irregular, because it was conveying messages inconsistent with US law and policy. The Congress had provided the military assistance and the various departments of government whose assent was required had given it. Stated US policy was support for Ukraine. If Trump wanted to add conditions, he needed to tell his own Administration as well as the Congress and inform the embassy.
He failed to do that, since he knew the backlash would be gigantic. He preferred instead to use his personal lawyer and a campaign contributor now ambassador to the European Union. Rudy Giuliani and Gordon Sondland could be relied on to do Trump’s personal bidding, no matter how wrong-headed. Under instructions from the President, they were trying to use US aid to extract results that would be personally and politically beneficial to himself. Bill memorably described this as “crazy,” but it is far worse that that. It is a corrupt abuse of power.
Now the President and his minions are claiming Bill’s testimony is a “smear” because there was no quid pro quo. This is classic Trump: accusing others of doing what he is doing to them and claiming that the facts are somehow different because he says they are. Bill should wear the accusations against him with pride: he did has done the right thing and demonstrated how an honest civil servant can penetrate the fog of lies and abuse of power that surround this president.
There is more to come. Defense official Laura Cooper is talking with the House today. No doubt many intelligence officials, civil servants, and Foreign Service officers will, following Bill’s example, find the courage to speak out. There will be plenty of high crimes and misdemeanors to sort through. The big question is when Speaker Pelosi will decide that the House has enough to impeach: before the end of the year, as many are speculating, or closer to the 2020 election?
Trump has now betrayed American interests in Ukraine, Syria (by yanking US troops without proper preparation), North Korea (by ignoring missile launches), and even Saudi Arabia, where he has failed to respond to the attack on its oil production facilities. In all four places he has created openings that Russian President Putin is exploiting. There were good reasons why Putin intervened in the 2016 election in favor of Trump, who is both strikingly incompetent and beholden to Russian financing.
That is no smear. It is the sad and apparent truth.
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Stevenson’s army, September 7
As we’ll discuss in class, being in the minority in the House isn’t much fun. Little power. We’ll also discuss the extraordinary power of chairmen. They control their committee’s agenda and staff. NYT article says many House Republicans are leaving Congress because they’ve lost power and it isn’t as much fun.
I’m told that Boris Johnson’s friends call him “Alex,” short for his given name, Alexander. I wonder if any of those are left now. Anyway, the FT’s Simon Kuper has a revealing story on what the Europeans now think of Johnson and Brexit.
Politico got leaked draft presidential directive calling for shift in foreign aid primarily to supporters of US policies.
Several publications have stories about how Hong Kong developments are affecting president Xi. Good piece in NYT,
which also links to extraordinary Reuters story of leaked comments by Hong Kong’s leader.
WSJ says the Trump administration still wants to keep classified documents relating to Saudi involvement in the 9/11 attacks.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 5
– Time magazine says SecState Pompeo opposes the pending US deal with the Taliban.
– Here’s a letter by former US officials critical of the agreement, too.
– The party committees in House and Senate seek contributions from their senior members. Somebody leaked information on the House Democrats’ problems getting payment.
-Karl Rove summarizes the party fights at the state level over redistricting.
– An AEI analyst says DOD is failing to do the right R&D. I think she may be right.
– I also agree with Dan Drezner’s analysis of Trump’s negotiating style.
– Yahoo News says a Dutch mole transferred the Stuxnet virus to Iran.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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