Tag: United State
Europe needs to unify and toughen up, fast
Yes, the US is trying to exclude Europe from an issue of vital European interest. No, it is not the first time.
Why Washington excludes Europe
My personal familiarity with this apparently undiplomatic behavior dates from the Dayton agreements that end the Bosnian war. The Europeans were present, but excluded from the key decisions. Holbooke was convinced that they would only complicate things and slow the negotiations. So he ordered Bob Gallucci to get them involved in an endless discussion of the international police force. Should it have executive authority, as the Americans wanted, or not, as the European insisted?
The tactic worked. Only the Germans, who worked bilaterally with the Americans without EU cover, had any impact at Dayton. Holbrooke encouraged Bonn, to prevent a united European consensus against him. The other Europeans had no significant role. The British and French complained bitterly without effect. But they and the rest of the EU were left holding the bag–they paid for much of the reconstruction.
Something similar had happened a few years earlier in the reunification of Germany. The Americans agreed to a 2+4 (two Germanies plus the four occupying powers) format for the diplomacy. But Washington then prevented most important issues from getting on the 2+4 agenda. The format was a fig leaf for US and (West) German decisions.
I’m sure there are many other examples.
The Ukraine negotiations
The Americans are trying the same trick now in the Ukraine negotiations. They intend to work directly with the Russians, excluding not only the UK and EU but also Ukraine. Washington wants to avoid the complications and delays dealing with them would cause. It again intends to leave the Europeans holding the bag. They will be expected not only to pay for the reconstruction but also to field peacekeepers.
The Americans have already made one big mistake. They have telegraphed what they are up to. Defense Secretary Hegseth’s scolded the Europeans at NATO. President Trump’s undertook his talk with Russian President Putin without consultation with allies. The Russian and American Foreign Ministers are meeting this week in Riyadh. Vice President Vance’s offensive talk at the Munich Security Conference told the Europeans all they needed to know.
The US is moving to conclude the Ukraine war on Moscow’s terms. That means surrendering Ukrainian territory for peace. The Americans want, as they have for several presidencies, to pivot away from the defense of Europe. They are also playing to their domestic audience, some of which is Russophilic and anti-European.
What the Europeans need to do now
Amply alerted, the Europeans are reacting quicker than usual. Key states are meeting in Paris today to plan what to do. Here is what I would suggest:
- They agree to monitor a peace settlement only if it in principle preserves Ukraine’s pre-2014 sovereignty and territorial integrity.
- They supply Ukraine with all the weapons and intelligence it needs to win, substituting for any shortfalls from the US.
- Europeans should examine any agreement reached without their presence on its merits, but with prejudice.
- They deploy trainers and technicians to Ukraine to help with both military and civilian tasks.
The Americans won’t like this. They may even try something like what Holbrooke did: convince a big country like Germany or Poland to cooperate bilaterally. That would block a European consensus. But so long as Europe continues to insist on point 1 above, they won’t be stuck with a bad deal.
Trump is different
The difference between Holbrooke’s exclusion of the Europeans and Trump’s is significant. President Clinton, Holbrooke’s boss, backed the NATO alliance and was sympathetic to the EU, which then included the UK. After Dayton, there was no need for a continuing rift between Europe and the US. The agreements reached accorded with European preferences. The rift ended quickly and Europe carried a big burden post-war.
The same won’t happen with Trump. He is unsympathetic to alliances in general, NATO in particular, and the EU most of all. The Americans are pushing for an agreement that will encourage future Russian aggression. If Europe is going to punch at least its weight in future trans-Atlantic issues, it needs to unify and toughen up, fast.
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Privilege needs to recognize itself and compensate
America marked the one-year anniversary of the COVID-19 epidemic last week. It was part memorial to the more than 500,000 who have died due to the negligence, ignorance, and egotism of President Trump. It was also part celebration of the rapid ramping up of vaccinations and the prospect of a return to normality by sometime in the late summer or early fall. President Biden has already demonstrated an ability to get good things done with a minimum of fuss, including a $1.9 trillion package intended not only to confront the virus but also to revive the economy.
It may be too much, but better that than too little. It will take some time to move some of that quantity of money through our various bureaucracies and into productive hands. But the initial $1400 payments to taxpayers went out already this weekend and the $300/week plus up of unemployment insurance should move fast too, but a lot of the rest cannot and should not be done quickly. It will require applications from businesses and states. Transparency and accountability will be important to ensuring that it reaches the correct destinations. Nothing could hurt the image of the Democrats-only stimulus more than a few boondoggles at taxpayer expense.
While we wait for the recovery, reflection on the past year is in order. The US failed miserably to stop COVID-19 early, which would have required a serious commitment to testing and contact tracing that the President was incapable of. Trump deserves credit for moving quickly to fund multiple vaccine projects, three of which have already come to arms. He was completely inept however at encouraging mitigation measures (masks, social distancing) and developing a serious plan for administering vaccine. That happened only after Biden took over. His administration has demonstrated impressive capability to increase production and distribution, down to the last mile and even inch.
That said, distribution of the vaccine is following the inverse of distribution of the disease, which has affected black and brown people disproportionately. They have contracted COVID-19 and died from it more than whites, but they are still not getting their proportionate share of vaccinations. There could be no clearer indication of how deeply ingrained in our institutions prejudice is. Georgia is managing to get vaccine to rural white communities while Atlanta black neighborhoods are short on supply. Sounds a bit like the distribution of polling places. Tell me there is no systemic discrimination.
A lot of people like me have enjoyed relatively few deprivations from the epidemic. I’ve been able to continue my usual reading, writing, and teaching from home. It’s not the same as enjoying the stimulation of students and colleagues downtown, but it isn’t all that far off. My wife and I have been walking 6-7 miles per day and have lost a few pounds. Groceries all get delivered. I’ve been in a store no more than half a dozen times in the past year, but I lack for nothing. Brown and black people who need the work bring me everything my bank account can afford.
It is an enormous privilege to quarantine as we have, without giving up professional life or income. All of us who have done it owe those who made it possible a big debt. I’d have thought a minimum wage of $15/hour wouldn’t be too much to pay, but our well-heeled Congress thought differently. I have no doubt but that the support to families with children contained in the latest stimulus package is likewise justified. The Republicans in Congress objected to that too, concerned it might enable some single mothers with four kids to stay home to do the vital work of raising kids rather than work.
Right now our biggest problem is climbing out of the recession and ensuring the benefits aren’t reserved for the relatively rich white people, of which I happen to be one. Privilege needs to recognize itself and compensate. That goes for America as a whole too. As we exit this tunnel, we need to help the rest of the world get out of it too.
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