Tag: United States
Hope is where the wild things are
My wife and I hosted a long-scheduled reunion for US Institute of Peace people last night. They were not for the most part current employees but rather people who worked there in 2005. Friday the current employees of the Institute were abruptly, but not unexpectedly, terminated.
I worked at USIP from 1998 to 2010. I left to teach at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. So my regret for what has happened is personal, not just intellectual. Caveat emptor.
A bit of history
The USIP website is now blocked, allegedly for security reasons. You can be pretty sure that isn’t true, but it means a bit of history is in order. Congress created USIP in 1984 during President Reagan’s presidency. It started life mainly as a grant and fellowship giver but evolved into a thinktank .
After the Bosnian war, it went in a new direction. We called it a “do-tank.” USIP tried to apply what had been learned through its grants, fellowships, and scholarship to real-life conflict situations. That started in the Balkans and then expanded to Iraq, Afghanistan, and in the last two decades many other places. Funding came both from direct Congressional appropriations and through the various Administrations, which would sometimes decide USIP could be helpful.
What USIP did
A few stories may be worth the telling. In about 2004, Don Hays–then the deputy High Representative in Bosnia–got the State Department to fund his effort after leaving Bosnia to help the Bosnians negotiate constitutional amendments. I don’t remember the cost, but it was well under $100,000, plus Don’s salary, which State was already committed to paying. The negotiations succeeded, but the constitutional amendments failed in the Bosnian parliament. They missed a two-thirds majority by just two votes. I think it now clear that those constitutional amendments would have vastly improved the situation in Bosnia.
After the invasion of Iraq, USIP requested and received $10 million for peacebuilding work there, focused mainly on preventing sectarian strife and helping establish rule of law. That effort aimed to tamp down a mostly Sunni rebellion against the Shia majority. USIP helped to train a network of Iraqis of all ethnicities who continue to this day to try to prevent sectarian and ethnic frictions from turning violent.
I could continue. USIP worked with amounts of money that were small in Defense Department terms to support US national security objectives in conflict zones abroad. Some of us were politically liberal and some of us were politically conservative, but we all recognized that benefits of preventing violent conflict in places the US had vital interests.
Fast forward
USIP made it through the Bush and Obama Administrations in decent shape financially, though it relied increasingly on transfers through the administration rather than direct appropriations from Congress. It also moved in 2011 to its new building at 23rd and Constitution. Its President, Richard Solomon, raised a lot of private money for the building. He also got the Navy to transfer the land to USIP.
USIP remains a non-governmental organization run by a bipartisan board appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate. The Administration had three ex-officio members on the Board: the Secretaries of State and Defense as well as the President of the National Defense University.
What Trump is doing
The Trump Administration now claims that the President has fired all the appointed members of the board (Democrats and Republicans, with one independent). The ex-officio members have appointed a new USIP chief executive. Courts will decide whether the Trumpkins can get away with this. But it is a dramatic departure from how USIP has been run in the past. Whether a quorum was required to fire the then acting president of the Institute is unclear.
Trump has not made clear what he intends to do with the Institute. But it won’t be surprising if he tries to close it entirely. That’s what he has done with so many vaguely similar “quangos,” that is quasi-nongovernmental organizations. Their claims to independence are offensive to the right-wing would-be autocrats who believe in the “unitary executive.” They refuse to tolerate any independent institutions, governmental or quasi-governmental. Trump will try to get his patsies on the Supreme Court to validate their views. They are also trying to limit the independence of nongovernmental institutions like law firms and universities.
Hope, or not?
I don’t have much hope for USIP’s future. I do hope its lawyers win in court and get a big settlement for its employees. But by that time the Institute will be nothing more than a shell. A future Administration could rebuild it, but not in the current political environment. Bipartisanship has gone the way of the dodo.
The baton passes now to other institutions worldwide. Europe has an Institute of Peace, as do any number of countries that mimicked USIP, to one extent or another. Hope lies wherever the restraining and suffocating writ of the Trump Administration does not extend. That’s where the wild things are.
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America made a giant mistake
The Signal chat is now the talk of DC. On it, Secretary of Defense Hegseth shared information that could have given an adversary opportunity to kill American service people. That’s all you really need to know. But it turns out that information came from an Israeli clandestine source, which compounds to damage. Signal is a commercial system not authorized for classified information. Hegseth denies it, to his discredit, but the operational information he shared was unquestionably classified.
Dumb and dumber
National Security Advisor Walz and Director of National Intelligence Gabbard compounded the sin. They lied to Congress about the contents of the chat, which has now been published by The Atlantic. Vice President Vance and President Trump claim they and their underlings did nothing wrong. These are stupid denials. Any lower-ranking official who did what Hegseth did would be courtmartialed or fired. The US Government would never again hire someone who did what he did. No one who did it would ever be hired by the US Government again. We are talking gross malfeasance here, not nuance. If he doesn’t resign, Hegseth should be fired.
Now Trump is trying to distract attention. He has announced 25% tariffs on cars. Tomorrow it will be something else. He is determined to create turmoil. It shifts the ground under his critics’ feet and prevents accountability. Almost no one has noticed Trump’s Executive Order on elections, which is intended to severely curtail voting by poor people and minorities. That’s a big win for him.
Dumbest
But the dumbest thing is the supposed ceasefire agreements in Ukraine. There Trump has promised Putin sanctions relief in exchange for an end to fighting in the Black Sea. That disadvantages the Ukrainians in two different ways. The Russians were no longer fighting in the Black Sea, as Ukrainian naval drones had chased their warships into port. Relieving them of financial sanctions is a big reward for nothing.
Trump has already given Moscow a bar on Ukrainian NATO membership and permission to hold on to occupied territory. Sanctions relief is a hat trick for Putin. He is laughing at Trump, who is playing the fool. I shouldn’t say playing. He is a fool.
The world already knows what Americans need to realize
This Administration is dumb and ill-intentioned. It is literally knocking on doors in Greenland looking for people who want to meet the Vice President and his wife. Everyone is saying a polite “no.” Denmarkers wouldn’t be so polite. In fact, it is now hard to imagine any European country that would be pleased with a high level visit from the US, other than Viktor Orban’s autocratic Hungary.
The situation isn’t much better in the Middle East. Only Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu would welcome Trump with open arms. Kurkiye’s President Erdogan might like a visit, but only because it would give him the chance to roll Trump again, as he has repeatedly done in the past. Even his friendship with the Saudis has cooled. No more sword dancing. Not to mention Canada, where Trump’s offensive behavior has infuriated a normally equilibrated citizenry.
It will take more time for Americans to fathom the mistake they have made. But buyers’ remorse will set in. Unfortunately, it will only be after tens of thousands have lost their jobs, many farmers have lost their farms, inflation has ravaged the country again, leading scientists have fled for greener pastures, untold numbers have lost their livelihood and lives, and the world has lost confidence in American leadership.
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Might doesn’t make right, but it’s winning
The bad news comes from every direction. The Trump Administration is closing Social Security offices but requiring more people to apply to them in person for benefits. The government needs more revenue but the Internal Revenue Service is firing the people who audit tax returns. The National Institutes of Health, the National Science Foundation, and other funders of American science are canceling grants and contracts. The Administration deported unidentified people over the objections of a Federal court.
In my world of international affairs, the news is also bad. The Administration is closing the organizations that broadcast reasonably objective news into autocratic countries. RFE/RL, Al Hurra, VoA, and others are to cease operations completely. The President wants peace in Ukraine. But he wants to close one of America’s premier Ukraine-focused institutions, the US Institute of Peace. Israel wants peace but has broken the ceasefire in Gaza to kill hundreds more Palestinians. Putin wants peace but he stiffed Trump’s call for a 30-day ceasefire in a phone call today.
International broadcasting
I’ve done a lot of interviews for international broadcasting organizations, including those named above as well as Al Jazeera Arabic. I don’t do it to convince people that I am right. My objective is to expose listeners/viewers to a perspective they may not otherwise hear. In my experience, all these outlets–including Al Jazeera Arabic–are consistently professional and balanced. I am often on the air with people I don’t agree with. The questioning is well-informed and appropriate to what is going on in the world. Other moments or programs may be less professional, but I wouldn’t participate in those and the producers know it. I gave up on Russia Today and Iranian broadcasters because they weren’t balanced or professional.
The US Agency for Global Media had about $450 million to spend this year. That sounds like a lot of money. It is less than .06% of the non-defense budget of the United States. Firing all those people and closing the institutions is the equivalent of less than a rounding error. DOGE is saving nothing by ending international broadcasting. But it is weakening the messages the US sends to the rest of the world. Free discourse, which rarely favors might makes right, suffers. That is what Trump wants, not budgetary savings. No doubt the Administration will eventually decide it needs an international propaganda arm and will spend even more on that.
The United States Institute of Peace
USIP is even less of a rounding error, at something under $100 million per year. I worked there for 12 years, from 1998 to 2010. The Institute played a pivotal role in the Balkans, where it helped create the Inter-religious Council in Bosnia. It provided the fora in which Serbs and Albanians began to talk with each other after the 1999 NATO/Yugoslavia war. And for more than two decades it has helped to keep the peace between Sunni and Shia in Iraq. I could cite many more examples, but you get the point.
The problem for Trump is that USIP is a bipartisan organization that he does not fully control. So he fired all the nongovernmental board members. Then the remaining three Administration board members claim to have fired the USIP President. They are taking over the building and the institution, both of which are private. It sounds like expropriation without legal authority to me. Might is winning for now.
Israel in Gaza
The Israeli decision to restart massive attacks on Gaza came in response to Hamas’ failure to release hostages. That in turn was in response to Israel’s refusal to start talks on ending the war. Prime Minister Netanyahu is bucking public opinion in Israel, which favors hostage release in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. He fears an end to the Gaza war. That could bring accountability for intelligence and military failures that made the 2023 Hamas attack so deadly. President Trump has encouraged Netanyahu in pursuing this course. Israel appears to have succeeded in killing some prominent Hamas leaders, along with hundreds of civilians.
Hamas is in a corner. It has declining traction in the Palestinian population and a decreasing number of living hostages. Israel acknowledges no limits to the civilian damage it is prepared to do. It would prefer that they leave Gaza altogether. That approach has Trump’s wholehearted support, to clear the way for his Mar-al-Gaza resort proposal. So far, no decisive opposition has come from Europe or the Arab states. Might is winning. The Israeli, American Jewish, and Arab preference for the ceasefire and exchanges is losing.
Ukraine’s weakness
Gaza is tragic. Ukraine is grim. Trump holds Ukrainian President Zelensky hostage with the vital US assistance he requires to continue the war. He is bypassing Zelensky to deal directly with Russian President Putin on the fate of Ukraine. In a phone call today, Putin told Trump to shove it. He wouldn’t even agree to a 30-day ceasefire but pledged no attacks on critical infrastructure for 30 days. That won’t last much longer than the 3-hour phone call. It’s definitely a nothingburger.
Putin and Trump spent most of their time on the call talking about how to improve US/Russia relations. Of course for Putin that framing requires the US to drop its assistance to Kyiv. Trump is amenable. He can’t get anything out of Putin because he has already given away too much. I won’t be surprised if we hear soon about more pressure on Zelensky and less on Russia. Zelensky is refusing to give up territory, insisting on continued US aid, and rejecting the idea of neutrality. The diplomatic position is strong, but Ukraine’s military position is weak. Trump and Putin are the mighty. They don’t care what Zelensky wants.
The difference between at home and abroad
At home, we can hope the courts will slow, stop, and even reverse the crimes and misdemeanors. Americans will sue to get government employees rehired, independent institutions re-established, and citizen services provided. Nothing like that will happen with the might makes right behavior internationally. At least a generation will pass before the damage is repaired.
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Neither nothingburger nor whopper
The 30-day fighting pause agreed today between Ukraine and the US is not a nothingburger. But it isn’t a whopper either. More like a quarter-burger.
No pause is a pause until both warring parties have agreed. I imagine the Americans have good reason to hope the Russians will sign on. But it isn’t a real agreement until they do.
What else did they say?
The Ukrainians offered fulsome gratitude to President Trump, the US Congress, and Americans for their assistance. Trump and Vance had complained they hadn’t thanked the US enough.
The US says it is lifting the pause on intelligence sharing and military assistance. Administration officials are claiming neither entirely stopped.
Some Ukrainian humanitarian priorities are cited: exchange of prisoners, release of civilians, and return of forcibly displaced Ukrainian children. These are not new items, and there has been sporadic progress in the past. But for Kyiv they are important.
The Americans and Ukrainians agreed to name negotiating teams for discussions aimed at an enduring peace and Ukrainian long-term security. The Ukrainians want the Europeans involved in the negotiations.
Presidents Trump and Zelensky agreed to conclude a comprehensive critical minerals agreement. This is presumably like the one they didn’t sign at the White House 10 days ago. It is supposed to expand Ukraine’s economy and “guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security.”
What’s missing?
I don’t see anything objectionable in this statement. But it leaves out a lot. It makes no mention of Russia’s continuing occupation of Ukrainian territory. It neglects the need for security guarantees beyond the minerals agreement, which is insufficient. The statement says nothing about Russian aggression and responsibility for compensation. It does not assert American support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. It leaves the Americans free to continue excluding the Europeans from the negotiations.
Of course the parties can cover all these issues in the future. But their neglect here tells you how far the US has gone in tilting towards support for Moscow. Nothing in this statement should cause any concern there. If Putin rejects the ceasefire offer, it will betray his lack of interest, not anything in this document.
What next?
If Moscow agrees, we’ll get a 30-day pause. Both sides will try to rearm, consolidate, redeploy, resupply, and prepare for more. I imagine it will be done initially without the trappings of a real ceasefire. It can be built out in subsequent iterations if both sides agree.
The critical question is whether the Americans are really going to continue intel sharing and military assistance. They may start using them to force the Ukrainians’ hand, switching on and off on a daily or weekly basis. The Russians would no doubt take advantage of that on the battlefield, as they have in recent days.
If Trump really wants success, he’ll use any Russian hesitation to tighten the sanctions on Moscow. The Russian economy is in deep difficulty.
Tightening sanctions might have a salutary effect on Putin’s willingness to deal. But Putin has weathered them so far. And Trump shows no signs of taking advantage of the opportunity, even though he has mentioned it in public.
This agreement between the US and Ukraine may not stop the war between Russia and Ukraine. But let’s hope it stops the war between Washington and Kyiv.
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Proving the opposite of what he intends
President Dodik is trying to assert de facto independence of Republika Srpska (RS). That is the 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina he controls. He is doing this to escape arrest and removal from office after his conviction by a Bosnian court last month. Dodik was found guilty of defying both the Bosnian Constitutional Court and decisions of the international community’s High Representative. He compounded that violation Friday with new laws. They nullify the powers of the country’s judiciary, police, and intelligence services in Republika Srpska.
So far so good
NATO, the EU, and the Americans have reacted appropriately. NATO Secretary General Rutte is in Sarajevo today reasserting the Alliance commitment to the Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Europeans are sending 400 more peacekeepers, bringing the total to 1100. Secretary of State Marco Rubio tweeted:
The actions of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik are undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina’s institutions and threatening its security and stability. Our nation encourages political leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina to engage in constructive and responsible dialogue. We call on our partners in the region to join us in pushing back against this dangerous and destabilizing behavior.
All this is good.
More needs doing
But more could easily be done. I would like the peacekeepers to go to Brcko. It is the northeastern Bosnian town that was the center of gravity of the 1990s war. It will be the center of gravity of any new conflict as well. Without it, the RS cannot secede.
I also hope the NATO troops can, once the Constitutional Court nullifies his new laws, provide support to arrest Dodik. It would be a mistake to allow him to escape accountability. If he flees to Moscow or Hungary, that would be second best.
Dodik’s support
The Russians are supporting Dodik, as is Hungary’s russophile Prime Minister Orban. Moscow finances Dodik and objects to High Representative decisions. It sees RS as akin to the Russian-occupied oblasts of Ukraine. Orban has reportedly sent special forces to extract Dodik from RS if need be.
Serbian President Vucic has met with Dodik and provided rhetorical support, but he won’t want to RS independence. That would put him in a difficult position. The EU would want him not to recognize. His own electorate would want him not only to recognize but then also to annex the RS. If he does, Dodik will become a rival in Belgrade.
It is unclear how much support Dodik has within Bosnia. Even in RS, many people think he is going too far to protect himself, not its majority Serb population. His opposition will not enthusiastically welcome his arrest, but they won’t complain too much. He has dominated RS politics for almost two decades. Is “dovoljno” the right word?
The future of the RS
Dodik’s defiance is making it clear Bosnia can’t progress if RS continues to defy its courts, laws, and police. The ultimate solution lies in constitutional reform, which is difficult. In the meanwhile, progress on security, human rights, and political reform is possible. The right direction for the country as a whole is more individual rights and less group rights. That is what the European Court of Human Rights has ordered. Group rights to identify candidates as well as veto legislative and executive action empower ethnic nationalist politicians like Dodik. They make serious preparation for European Union membership impossible.
Dodik is, ironically, proving the opposite of what he intends. He is trying to show that the RS should be unconstrained by law and order. What he is really showing is that an unconstrained RS is a barrier to Bosnia’s functionality and EU future. It is time Dodik pays the price of his own criminal acts.
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All that glitters is not gold
President Trump is promising a golden era. Let’s have a look.
What’s he doing now?
Tariffs, immigration restrictions, refusal to help democracies in Europe: this reminds me of the 1930s. So too does withdrawal from international institutions and stock market jitters. We know how that ended. Will it be better this time?
The campaign against woke as well as diversity, equity, inclusion is racial and gender prejudice incognito. Racism without the white sheet and pointy hat.
Firing of government workers and canceling of government grants and contracts is how both Trump and Elon Musk conduct business. These are the people you never want to do business with. They don’t keep commitments. They lie about accomplishments. The savings are going to be minimal. Firing all government employees would save 4% of the Federal budget. Firing IRS agents is going to increase the deficit.
The dismantling of USAID is already killing non-Americans who suffer from HIV, malaria, and other diseases. It is also hurting American agriculture and the American contractors who implement most of the work done abroad. At less than .5% of the budget, the savings are minimal. Once the court cases clear, I doubt there will be any savings at all.
What’s he aiming for?
Trump isn’t hiding his goals. He wants to extend a tax cut from his first term that will cost the US government $4.5 trillion. We know what that did the first time around: it was expensive and skewed to the rich. It did not deliver promised benefits. There is no way to compensate for the full $4.5 trillion, but the Republican House proposal is to take $880 million from Medicaid, depriving one-fifth of Americans of health insurance:
Trump will claim the savings come from waste, fraud, and mismanagement (WFM), but that is flim flam. There isn’t anywhere near enough WFM.
Trump has already suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, while asking nothing of Russia. Moscow continues its bombardment of civilians and its push for more territory. Trump’s goal is to get Ukraine to agree to give up land in exchange for Russian security guarantees. Putin has repeatedly proved those worthless. Trump expects the Europeans to provide peacekeepers, but that is entirely dependent on US backup through NATO’s Article 5. Trump is saying he won’t commit to that. The push to end the war in Ukraine is again flim flam. Dangerous flim flam as it is encouraging Putin to do whatever he feels like doing.
In the Middle East, Trump is still bragging on Gaza-lago, his scheme for rebuilding Gaza into a Mediterranean resort. No one things that is happening. If he were successful at moving the Palestinians out, it would make Americans targets of terrorism worldwide.
Dross is what you get
I underestimated Trump. To me, he is an obvious fraud. But he fools a lot of Americans. They think Musk is doing something that will balance the budget. They believe Trump will somehow make peace in Ukraine. His supporters don’t care that his Gaza ideas are bogus. It’s not just that all that glitters is not gold. It’s that anything Trump touches turns to dross.
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