Tag: United States
Might doesn’t make right, but it’s winning
The bad news comes from every direction. The Trump Administration is closing Social Security offices but requiring more people to apply to them in person for benefits. The government needs more revenue but the Internal Revenue Service is firing the people who audit tax returns. The National Institutes of Health, the National Science Foundation, and other funders of American science are canceling grants and contracts. The Administration deported unidentified people over the objections of a Federal court.
In my world of international affairs, the news is also bad. The Administration is closing the organizations that broadcast reasonably objective news into autocratic countries. RFE/RL, Al Hurra, VoA, and others are to cease operations completely. The President wants peace in Ukraine. But he wants to close one of America’s premier Ukraine-focused institutions, the US Institute of Peace. Israel wants peace but has broken the ceasefire in Gaza to kill hundreds more Palestinians. Putin wants peace but he stiffed Trump’s call for a 30-day ceasefire in a phone call today.
International broadcasting
I’ve done a lot of interviews for international broadcasting organizations, including those named above as well as Al Jazeera Arabic. I don’t do it to convince people that I am right. My objective is to expose listeners/viewers to a perspective they may not otherwise hear. In my experience, all these outlets–including Al Jazeera Arabic–are consistently professional and balanced. I am often on the air with people I don’t agree with. The questioning is well-informed and appropriate to what is going on in the world. Other moments or programs may be less professional, but I wouldn’t participate in those and the producers know it. I gave up on Russia Today and Iranian broadcasters because they weren’t balanced or professional.
The US Agency for Global Media had about $450 million to spend this year. That sounds like a lot of money. It is less than .06% of the non-defense budget of the United States. Firing all those people and closing the institutions is the equivalent of less than a rounding error. DOGE is saving nothing by ending international broadcasting. But it is weakening the messages the US sends to the rest of the world. Free discourse, which rarely favors might makes right, suffers. That is what Trump wants, not budgetary savings. No doubt the Administration will eventually decide it needs an international propaganda arm and will spend even more on that.
The United States Institute of Peace
USIP is even less of a rounding error, at something under $100 million per year. I worked there for 12 years, from 1998 to 2010. The Institute played a pivotal role in the Balkans, where it helped create the Inter-religious Council in Bosnia. It provided the fora in which Serbs and Albanians began to talk with each other after the 1999 NATO/Yugoslavia war. And for more than two decades it has helped to keep the peace between Sunni and Shia in Iraq. I could cite many more examples, but you get the point.
The problem for Trump is that USIP is a bipartisan organization that he does not fully control. So he fired all the nongovernmental board members. Then the remaining three Administration board members claim to have fired the USIP President. They are taking over the building and the institution, both of which are private. It sounds like expropriation without legal authority to me. Might is winning for now.
Israel in Gaza
The Israeli decision to restart massive attacks on Gaza came in response to Hamas’ failure to release hostages. That in turn was in response to Israel’s refusal to start talks on ending the war. Prime Minister Netanyahu is bucking public opinion in Israel, which favors hostage release in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. He fears an end to the Gaza war. That could bring accountability for intelligence and military failures that made the 2023 Hamas attack so deadly. President Trump has encouraged Netanyahu in pursuing this course. Israel appears to have succeeded in killing some prominent Hamas leaders, along with hundreds of civilians.
Hamas is in a corner. It has declining traction in the Palestinian population and a decreasing number of living hostages. Israel acknowledges no limits to the civilian damage it is prepared to do. It would prefer that they leave Gaza altogether. That approach has Trump’s wholehearted support, to clear the way for his Mar-al-Gaza resort proposal. So far, no decisive opposition has come from Europe or the Arab states. Might is winning. The Israeli, American Jewish, and Arab preference for the ceasefire and exchanges is losing.
Ukraine’s weakness
Gaza is tragic. Ukraine is grim. Trump holds Ukrainian President Zelensky hostage with the vital US assistance he requires to continue the war. He is bypassing Zelensky to deal directly with Russian President Putin on the fate of Ukraine. In a phone call today, Putin told Trump to shove it. He wouldn’t even agree to a 30-day ceasefire but pledged no attacks on critical infrastructure for 30 days. That won’t last much longer than the 3-hour phone call. It’s definitely a nothingburger.
Putin and Trump spent most of their time on the call talking about how to improve US/Russia relations. Of course for Putin that framing requires the US to drop its assistance to Kyiv. Trump is amenable. He can’t get anything out of Putin because he has already given away too much. I won’t be surprised if we hear soon about more pressure on Zelensky and less on Russia. Zelensky is refusing to give up territory, insisting on continued US aid, and rejecting the idea of neutrality. The diplomatic position is strong, but Ukraine’s military position is weak. Trump and Putin are the mighty. They don’t care what Zelensky wants.
The difference between at home and abroad
At home, we can hope the courts will slow, stop, and even reverse the crimes and misdemeanors. Americans will sue to get government employees rehired, independent institutions re-established, and citizen services provided. Nothing like that will happen with the might makes right behavior internationally. At least a generation will pass before the damage is repaired.
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Neither nothingburger nor whopper
The 30-day fighting pause agreed today between Ukraine and the US is not a nothingburger. But it isn’t a whopper either. More like a quarter-burger.
No pause is a pause until both warring parties have agreed. I imagine the Americans have good reason to hope the Russians will sign on. But it isn’t a real agreement until they do.
What else did they say?
The Ukrainians offered fulsome gratitude to President Trump, the US Congress, and Americans for their assistance. Trump and Vance had complained they hadn’t thanked the US enough.
The US says it is lifting the pause on intelligence sharing and military assistance. Administration officials are claiming neither entirely stopped.
Some Ukrainian humanitarian priorities are cited: exchange of prisoners, release of civilians, and return of forcibly displaced Ukrainian children. These are not new items, and there has been sporadic progress in the past. But for Kyiv they are important.
The Americans and Ukrainians agreed to name negotiating teams for discussions aimed at an enduring peace and Ukrainian long-term security. The Ukrainians want the Europeans involved in the negotiations.
Presidents Trump and Zelensky agreed to conclude a comprehensive critical minerals agreement. This is presumably like the one they didn’t sign at the White House 10 days ago. It is supposed to expand Ukraine’s economy and “guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security.”
What’s missing?
I don’t see anything objectionable in this statement. But it leaves out a lot. It makes no mention of Russia’s continuing occupation of Ukrainian territory. It neglects the need for security guarantees beyond the minerals agreement, which is insufficient. The statement says nothing about Russian aggression and responsibility for compensation. It does not assert American support for Ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity. It leaves the Americans free to continue excluding the Europeans from the negotiations.
Of course the parties can cover all these issues in the future. But their neglect here tells you how far the US has gone in tilting towards support for Moscow. Nothing in this statement should cause any concern there. If Putin rejects the ceasefire offer, it will betray his lack of interest, not anything in this document.
What next?
If Moscow agrees, we’ll get a 30-day pause. Both sides will try to rearm, consolidate, redeploy, resupply, and prepare for more. I imagine it will be done initially without the trappings of a real ceasefire. It can be built out in subsequent iterations if both sides agree.
The critical question is whether the Americans are really going to continue intel sharing and military assistance. They may start using them to force the Ukrainians’ hand, switching on and off on a daily or weekly basis. The Russians would no doubt take advantage of that on the battlefield, as they have in recent days.
If Trump really wants success, he’ll use any Russian hesitation to tighten the sanctions on Moscow. The Russian economy is in deep difficulty.
Tightening sanctions might have a salutary effect on Putin’s willingness to deal. But Putin has weathered them so far. And Trump shows no signs of taking advantage of the opportunity, even though he has mentioned it in public.
This agreement between the US and Ukraine may not stop the war between Russia and Ukraine. But let’s hope it stops the war between Washington and Kyiv.
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Proving the opposite of what he intends
President Dodik is trying to assert de facto independence of Republika Srpska (RS). That is the 49% of Bosnia and Herzegovina he controls. He is doing this to escape arrest and removal from office after his conviction by a Bosnian court last month. Dodik was found guilty of defying both the Bosnian Constitutional Court and decisions of the international community’s High Representative. He compounded that violation Friday with new laws. They nullify the powers of the country’s judiciary, police, and intelligence services in Republika Srpska.
So far so good
NATO, the EU, and the Americans have reacted appropriately. NATO Secretary General Rutte is in Sarajevo today reasserting the Alliance commitment to the Bosnia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Europeans are sending 400 more peacekeepers, bringing the total to 1100. Secretary of State Marco Rubio tweeted:
The actions of Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik are undermining Bosnia and Herzegovina’s institutions and threatening its security and stability. Our nation encourages political leaders in Bosnia and Herzegovina to engage in constructive and responsible dialogue. We call on our partners in the region to join us in pushing back against this dangerous and destabilizing behavior.
All this is good.
More needs doing
But more could easily be done. I would like the peacekeepers to go to Brcko. It is the northeastern Bosnian town that was the center of gravity of the 1990s war. It will be the center of gravity of any new conflict as well. Without it, the RS cannot secede.
I also hope the NATO troops can, once the Constitutional Court nullifies his new laws, provide support to arrest Dodik. It would be a mistake to allow him to escape accountability. If he flees to Moscow or Hungary, that would be second best.
Dodik’s support
The Russians are supporting Dodik, as is Hungary’s russophile Prime Minister Orban. Moscow finances Dodik and objects to High Representative decisions. It sees RS as akin to the Russian-occupied oblasts of Ukraine. Orban has reportedly sent special forces to extract Dodik from RS if need be.
Serbian President Vucic has met with Dodik and provided rhetorical support, but he won’t want to RS independence. That would put him in a difficult position. The EU would want him not to recognize. His own electorate would want him not only to recognize but then also to annex the RS. If he does, Dodik will become a rival in Belgrade.
It is unclear how much support Dodik has within Bosnia. Even in RS, many people think he is going too far to protect himself, not its majority Serb population. His opposition will not enthusiastically welcome his arrest, but they won’t complain too much. He has dominated RS politics for almost two decades. Is “dovoljno” the right word?
The future of the RS
Dodik’s defiance is making it clear Bosnia can’t progress if RS continues to defy its courts, laws, and police. The ultimate solution lies in constitutional reform, which is difficult. In the meanwhile, progress on security, human rights, and political reform is possible. The right direction for the country as a whole is more individual rights and less group rights. That is what the European Court of Human Rights has ordered. Group rights to identify candidates as well as veto legislative and executive action empower ethnic nationalist politicians like Dodik. They make serious preparation for European Union membership impossible.
Dodik is, ironically, proving the opposite of what he intends. He is trying to show that the RS should be unconstrained by law and order. What he is really showing is that an unconstrained RS is a barrier to Bosnia’s functionality and EU future. It is time Dodik pays the price of his own criminal acts.
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All that glitters is not gold
President Trump is promising a golden era. Let’s have a look.
What’s he doing now?
Tariffs, immigration restrictions, refusal to help democracies in Europe: this reminds me of the 1930s. So too does withdrawal from international institutions and stock market jitters. We know how that ended. Will it be better this time?
The campaign against woke as well as diversity, equity, inclusion is racial and gender prejudice incognito. Racism without the white sheet and pointy hat.
Firing of government workers and canceling of government grants and contracts is how both Trump and Elon Musk conduct business. These are the people you never want to do business with. They don’t keep commitments. They lie about accomplishments. The savings are going to be minimal. Firing all government employees would save 4% of the Federal budget. Firing IRS agents is going to increase the deficit.
The dismantling of USAID is already killing non-Americans who suffer from HIV, malaria, and other diseases. It is also hurting American agriculture and the American contractors who implement most of the work done abroad. At less than .5% of the budget, the savings are minimal. Once the court cases clear, I doubt there will be any savings at all.
What’s he aiming for?
Trump isn’t hiding his goals. He wants to extend a tax cut from his first term that will cost the US government $4.5 trillion. We know what that did the first time around: it was expensive and skewed to the rich. It did not deliver promised benefits. There is no way to compensate for the full $4.5 trillion, but the Republican House proposal is to take $880 million from Medicaid, depriving one-fifth of Americans of health insurance:
Trump will claim the savings come from waste, fraud, and mismanagement (WFM), but that is flim flam. There isn’t anywhere near enough WFM.
Trump has already suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, while asking nothing of Russia. Moscow continues its bombardment of civilians and its push for more territory. Trump’s goal is to get Ukraine to agree to give up land in exchange for Russian security guarantees. Putin has repeatedly proved those worthless. Trump expects the Europeans to provide peacekeepers, but that is entirely dependent on US backup through NATO’s Article 5. Trump is saying he won’t commit to that. The push to end the war in Ukraine is again flim flam. Dangerous flim flam as it is encouraging Putin to do whatever he feels like doing.
In the Middle East, Trump is still bragging on Gaza-lago, his scheme for rebuilding Gaza into a Mediterranean resort. No one things that is happening. If he were successful at moving the Palestinians out, it would make Americans targets of terrorism worldwide.
Dross is what you get
I underestimated Trump. To me, he is an obvious fraud. But he fools a lot of Americans. They think Musk is doing something that will balance the budget. They believe Trump will somehow make peace in Ukraine. His supporters don’t care that his Gaza ideas are bogus. It’s not just that all that glitters is not gold. It’s that anything Trump touches turns to dross.
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America needs to right itself
Unlike her compatriots on MSNBC, Rachel does real digging and finds things others haven’t reported on. This segment on the realignment with Russia was a fine example.
Why Russia?
Still, why is Trump abandoning Europe in favor of a country with an economy smaller than Canada’s? Russia has a few things going for it. It is the largest country on earth. Its giant land mass has good odds of containing lots of minerals as well as oil and gas. It borders both Europe and China, making it strategically vital to both.
Russia has also proven capable of upending order in Europe and in the US. In Europe it has used cyber attacks, disinformation, covert action against infrastructure, corruption, and military aggression. In the US it uses all but the last of these. The purpose is to show democracy as dysfunctional. It works, as we saw in the UK withdrawal from Brexit and in the rise of the neo-Nazis in Germany.
Why Trump?
Trump has been laundering Russian assets through real estate deals for decades. One of his buyers was present for the US/Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia last month. He has also sought to invest in Moscow. Trump boasts about his close relationship with Russian President Putin. He is not hiding it. He openly sought Russian assistance during his first presidential campaign.
Friday’s meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky went well until minute 40. Then it went awry because Vance realized Moscow would not be pleased. Trump piled on. His alignment with Russia might not have survived a successful signing of the minerals agreement. Even though that is nothing more than an agreement to negotiate.
US interests
Americans are not with Trump on Russia. They don’t trust Putin. Opinion on support for Ukraine is more divided. But most Trump supporters back Ukraine. There really is no question about who started the war. The question is whether Russia or Ukraine will emerge the winner either on the battlefield or at the negotiating table.
The alliance with Europe kept the peace during the Cold War and thereafter. The Alliance triggered its mutual defense obligation only once, in response to the 9/11 attack on the US. Anyone who endangers NATO is not acting in the interest of the United States. Trump has endangered it repeatedly. He has also neglected to recognize that Europe is doing more for its own defense, as he himself has urged.
We’ve elected a president who serves Russia’s interests better than he serves American interests. He is also dismantling the US government Those are serious problems. Fixing them will be hard. We need what used to be termed an “intervention.” Here is one idea: get the ex-presidents to intervene.
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Americans deserve better but may not get it
Trump and Zelensky were doing fine yesterday:
Zelensky had several times challenged Trump. Europeans, Zelensky said, had provided more aid than the US and it did not have to be paid back. He noted Putin’s record of violating agreements, as well as his torture of prisoners and theft of Ukrainian children. Trump was taking it, even though it made him visiblyu uncomfortable.
The culprit was Vance
Things went south about 39:50, when JD Vance chimed in about the virtues of diplomacy rather than force. Zelensky responded “what kind of diplomacy?” But things only went off the rails when Vance then called Zelensky disrespectful. He had not been disrespectful, though he was clearly annoyed that the VP was chiming in. It was Vance who was being disrespectful.
Quarreling at that point was unwise. Zelensky should have said “we’ll have to disagree about the prospects for successful diplomacy.” Or “I agree about diplomacy, but it has to be backed by strength.” Or “diplomacy with security guarantees makes sense to me.” But give the man a break: he was exhausted and tired of these Russian dupes.
Why did Vance do it?
There are several possible explanations for why Vance made the false claim that Zelensky was disrespectful:
- They had met privately in advance of this public session. I had the sense there was already bad blood between them. Maybe it just flowed out.
- Trump and Vance may have agreed that the President would play good cop while the VP played bad cop.
- Vance may have decided the meeting was going too well and that his minders in Moscow would not be pleased.
- Trump and Vance may have (rightly) decided the agreement Zelensky was about to sign was a nothing burger.
Whatever the cause, it was, as Tom Nichols put it in The Atlantic, an ambush. Zelensky was not at fault.
Humpty dumpty
The question now is whether Humpty Dumpty can be put back together again. I doubt it. It was not just this meeting that went badly. Trump’s entire initiative for peace in Ukraine is cockeyed. He is trying to wean Russia from China and make Moscow a friend of the US. That isn’t going to happen. Putin knows his country is nothing without Chinese backing. He certainly won’t trade it for the uncertainties of US support.
But there is no telling with Trump. He is a bad negotiator. He concedes things up front that he needn’t concede. Trump holds back on things that need to be clear up front. He reverses himself even on issues he has said are vital. The European backing for Zelensky should make an honest US president wonder if he has got this right. But of course Trump despises the Euros. And he isn’t honest
America will shrink
That leaves us with a giant split in the NATO Alliance. Trump is aligned with Russia. The Europeans align with Ukraine. But will the Euros get their act together to fill in for the US aid Trump will cancel? If they don’t Putin will win this war. Then after a few years of rearmament he will start a new one in Moldova, then Poland or the Baltics.
America will have shrunk to a Western Hemisphere power pining after Panama and Greenland. And complaining to Mexico and Canada about the drugs Americans are abusing. Washington will be unable and unwilling to defend its allies in either Europe or Asia. Our economy will be noncompetitive due to tariff protection. The society will return to its tradition of white robber baron supremacy. Americans deserve better but may not get it.
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