Tag: United States

Forget the terrorism advice

How will you react to a State Department warning of a possible terrorist attack at an unspecified location sometime in the next 30 days?  Your options are basically two:

  1. cancel your travel plans and hunker down in what you think is a safe place;
  2. ignore the warning and go about your business.

Before you decide, consider this:  on the order of a dozen Americans are killed in terrorist acts each year, out of 300 million or so.  Most die in Kabul and other far away places where the risks are higher.  Even in 2001, when almost 3000 Americans were killed on 9/11, your odds were very good:  less than 1 in 100,000 of being a victim.  You and I take risks on that order every day:  the odds of being killed in an automobile accident in any given year are at least 10 times higher. Read more

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I wouldn’t want to start from here

Senators McCain and Graham are packing their bags for Cairo, reportedly having been asked to go by President Obama. EU High Representative Catherine Ashton has visited already, including a meeting at an undisclosed location with former President Morsi.  The question is this:  what should all these luminaries be telling the military-backed government and its Muslim Brotherhood opponents?

Abdul Rahman al Rashed, editor-in-chief of Asharq Al- Awsat, suggests:

Everything can be negotiated, except Mursi’s return to the presidency—a demand that the Brotherhood knows will be impossible to fulfil. Thus, the solution can be as follows: a consensual cabinet, a short-term interim government and internationally supervised elections in which the Brotherhood participates. Then, everyone can return home claiming that they have got what they wanted.

My guess is that the senators will be taking a line close to this, insisting on a timetable for elections and as broad a government as possible to prepare for it.  In his less than articulate way, Lindsay Graham has suggested as much: Read more

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Peace picks July 29 – August 2

1. Squaring the circle: General Raymond T. Odierno on American military strategy in a time of declining resources, American Enterprise Institute, Monday, July 29, 2013 / 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM

Venue: American Enterprise Institute

1150 17th Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20036

Speakers: Mackenzie Eaglen, General Raymond T. Odierno

With sequestration a reality and little hope for a bargain on the horizon, the US military is facing a steeper-than-planned defense drawdown that few wanted but fewer still seem to be willing or able to stop. What are the implications for the men and women of the US Army if the sequester stays on the books for the foreseeable future?

AEI’s Marilyn Ware Center for Security Studies will host General Raymond Odierno, Chief of Staff of the US Army, for the second installment of a series of four events with each member of the Joint Chiefs.

Register for the event here:

http://www.aei.org/events/2013/07/29/squaring-the-circle-general-raymond-t-odierno-on-american-military-strategy-in-a-time-of-declining-resources/

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Two states are the only solution

On Monday, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace hosted the first public event of The Elders – an international NGO founded by Nelson Mandela that brings together former high-level politicians and statesmen from around the world. Together, this group travels the globe in promoting human rights and democracy. Through their combined efforts and individual networks, The Elders regularly meet with current world leaders and consult with policymakers.

Their current trip to Washington DC is geared to support ongoing efforts in favor of a diplomatic solution in Syria and US Secretary of State John Kerry’s push for resumption of direct negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. At Carnegie, three members of the elders, former US President Jimmy Carter, former Finnish President Martti Ahtisaari, and former Algerian Foreign Minister and special envoy to the UN Lakhdar Brahimi spoke about their efforts and their expectations for the near and long-term future in an event titled “Can the two-state solution be saved?”.

The three former statesmen remain hopeful about both Israel/Palestine and the situation in Syria. Regarding direct negotiations, President Carter was quick to mention the internal constraints that both Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas face. Each is confronted with domestic pressures not to negotiate. Netanyahu’s governing coalition includes right-of-center parties opposed to final-status agreements. Meanwhile, Abbas’ Fatah party faces pressure from Hamas, whose charter does not recognize Israel.  Each side has committed to putting any final peace treaty up to a national referendum.

Brahimi spoke of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Syria. He noted that nearly 6,000 new refugees flee Syria each day. He is hopeful that the Geneva II conference will regain momentum and urged all parties to abstain from further violence as a duty to Syria’s people, culture, and history.  Brahimi believes that the continued civil war is turning into an effort to destroy Syria’s past, present and future.

President Ahtisaari spoke of the linkages between the two conflicts and the role that the West can have vis-à-vis Iran. Ahtisaari encouraged greater cooperation between the P5 and Iran.  He believes that the new Iranian government under Rouhani provides an opportunity for a restart with Iran.

The Elders are an impressive group. Their personal experiences and flexibility as independent advisors unconnected to any government provides them with unique access and insight into current global challenges. Yet, even after a Q&A session it remains unclear how the three speakers feel about the future of the two-state solution. Read more

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Peace Picks July 22-26

1. Rouhani: Challenges at Home, Challenges Abroad, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Monday, July 22 / 9:00am – 11:30am

Venue: Woodrow Wilson Center

1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW, Washington, D.C. 20004

Speakers: Bijan Khajehpour, Shervin Malekzadeh, Suzanne Maloney, Roberto Toscano, Ali Vaez, Shaul Bakhash

Six Iran experts discuss President-elect Rouhani’s domestic and foreign policy challenges.

Register for the event here:

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/rouhani-challenges-home-challenges-abroad

Read more

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Get over it

As I’ve read some off the wall interpretations and reactions to the President’s remarks yesterday about the Trayvon Martin case, I thought I would put up the video. Nothing like the original to make folks identify precisely what they found offensive or ill-founded:

In my way of thinking, the President here is showing himself not only thoughtful but also appropriately sensitive to a wide range of reactions to the case. I can’t imagine why some think he is speaking only for black people, even if he is definitely speaking from his experience as a black man in American. I’m what this society calls “white” and I can assure you he speaks for me: better training for the police, making sure our laws don’t encourage violence, targeted efforts to help young black men, soul-searching for our own biases, and recognition that we’ve come a long way sound like pretty good ideas to me.

Some of the criticism is about gun rights:  there are people in our society who not only want the right to defend themselves, which has long been guaranteed, but impunity from prosecution if they don’t try to avoid a confrontation and instead “stand their ground,”  which means responding to perceived threat with deadly violence even if there is an alternative.  I suppose if I wanted to own a gun I would want to maximize my impunity as well.  Imagining what would have happened had Trayvon Martin been armed–as the president suggests–is precisely the right way to convince yourself that this is a road we should not want to go down.

A lot of the criticism is coming from people who claim to be color blind (that’s why they think we don’t need that Voting Rights Act, isn’t it?) and resent the president’s explicit discussion of the racial dimensions of this case.  I can’t help but wonder how many of these allegedly color blind people actually voted for a black president.  And how many of them didn’t like that Cheerios commercial with the mixed couple.  I’ve had more than one acquaintance who voted against Obama congratulate themselves and America on his election.  These folks seem convinced that it happened because America didn’t notice he was black.  So when he addresses racial issues as a black person they are deeply offended.

But his election did not happen because America was color blind.  It happened because people preferred what he offered, because they trusted him more, because his opponents were weak, because young people, blacks and latinos turned out, because he is a thoughtful and well-educated person, and because racial prejudice is less absolute than once it was.

My grandmother would never have voted for a black person for anything.  My parents would be delighted he was elected.  But none of them was color blind.  Nor am I.  The president is black.  Get over it.

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