Tag: United States
Inclusion is difficult
That’s clear enough from this morning’s news that the Salafist Nour party appears to have vetoed the already announced naming of liberal/secularist Mohamed ElBaradei as prime minister of Egypt’s interim government. It is also apparent from the New York Times account of President Morsi’s fall, which included multiple efforts by the Americans and the army to convince him to broaden his government and include more of his opposition. It was good advice then, and it is good advice now.
But it is difficult. The basic problem is that Egyptians have not yet agreed on the rules of their political game. Morsi rammed through an Islamist-leaning constitution, approved in a referendum, that the army has now suspended. The Nour party, seeing an opening, has endorsed the coup and will want to take advantage of the interim period to try to ensure that the new constitution the army has promised will lean even more in the Islamist direction than Morsi’s ill-fated version. ElBaradei is unlikely to let that happen, as he is a devoted secularist and constitutionalist, albeit one who was apparently prepared to ride to power on the back of a military coup. Read more
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ElBaradei should not make Morsi’s mistakes
If Americans remember Mohamed ElBaradei at all, it is for his stubborn and ultimately vindicated resistance to the George W. Bush administration’s claims that Iraq was acquiring nuclear weapons. ElBaradei was then Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, with which he shared a Nobel Peace Prize in 2005. While an important figure on the secular/liberal part of the political spectrum since the February 2011 revolution, he polled poorly and withdrew as a candidate in the 2012 presidential election that Mohamed Morsi won. ElBaradei said it was a mistake to elect a president before revising the constitution. He wanted a more inclusive, slower process. He then founded the Constitution Party, with his eye on the 2016 election.
Now ElBaradei is to be prime minister of an interim government resulting from this week’s military coup. He faces no lesser challenges than Morsi did. The economy is in a tailspin. The government’s coffers are empty. Security is deteriorating. Rival demonstrations are clashing in the streets of Cairo, Port Said and other major cities. Plus he faces the enormous resentment of the Muslim Brotherhood, which rightly claims Morsi had democratic legitimacy that ElBaradei lacks. Read more
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Yemenis in DC
I spent a couple of hours with visiting Yemenis earlier this week, focused on the current national dialogue. This was not a cross-section of Yemeni society. These were well-educated, mostly mid- to upper-level bureaucrats who certainly know what people in Washington want to hear.
The vision they projected is not reconstruction but rather building a New Yemen: a single (but not overly centralized) civil state, stronger provincial and local self-governance, stronger protection of individual rights. Three hurdles seemed foremost on the Yemenis’ minds:
- fuller integration of the south;
- security for the population;
- international community engagement. Read more
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Meanwhile in the Balkans
I did this interview Wednesday for Bedrudin Brljavac of the Turkish Anadolu agency in Sarajevo:
- In the aftermath of the accession of Croatia to the EU, do you think that the EU doors are still open to other Balkan countries as well, or has an idea about enlargement recently lose popularity among Europeans?
The door doesn’t really open until a country is ready to join. I think it will open for other Balkans countries, but only when they are well prepared.
- Today there has appeared an interview with former Higher representative Paddy Ashdown who said that after Croatia joined the EU and Serbia joins in the future, Bosnia will stay isolated. Do you think that Bosnia can indeed stay isolated and out of the EU in the long run? Do you think that the “process of Palestinisation of Bosnia” is real and possible? Read more
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Tabler and Lynch go ten rounds
The Obama administration’s decision to arm the Syrian rebels is controversial in Washington. While some support the decision, others consider it “probably [Obama’s] worst foreign policy decision since taking office.” Last week, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy hosted a debate on Arming the Syrian Rebels: Sliding Toward Iraq or Inching Toward Stability. Andrew Tabler, a senior fellow in the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute, argued for arming the rebels. On the other side stood Marc Lynch, associate professor at George Washington University and editor of Foreign Policy’s Middle East Channel. Robert Satloff, executive director and Howard P. Berkowitz Chair in U.S. Middle East Policy at the Washington Institute, moderated the discussion. Read more
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Peace picks July 1-5
Sudden summer doldrums, but a few good picks:
1. Moderating Extremism in Pakistan Working with Women and Youth to Prevent and Resolve Conflict, Women’s Foreign Policy Group, Monday, July 1 / 12:00 pm
Venue: Wilderness Society
1615 M Street, NW Washington, DC
Speaker: Mossarat Qadeem
Mossarat Qadeem founded PAIMAN Alumni Trust, a nonprofit group promoting sociopolitical and economic empowerment of marginalized Pakistanis. With PAIMAN, she established the country’s first center for conflict transformation and peacebuilding, which has helped thousands of young people and women across the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Khyber Pukhtunkwa province to prevent and resolve conflict. Working directly with mothers of radicalized youths, Qadeem helps to rescue young men who are being exploited by extremists and ensures that they receive job training and education to help them to reintegrate into their communities. Qadeem is also the national coordinator of Aman-o-Nisa, a coalition of women leaders throughout Pakistan striving to moderate violent extremism and promote understanding among diverse ethnic, religious, and political groups. Previously, Qadeem taught political science at the University of Peshawar, where she also served as assistant director of the Women’s Study Centre. Qadeem helped found the regional South Asia Women’s Peace Forum and has developed her own training materials on women’s political participation and conflict transformation. She is also a member of the Women Waging Peace Network of The Institute for Inclusive Security, which supports more than 2,000 women leaders around the globe. Qadeem has published two books, written many articles, and produced documentaries on topics including India-Pakistan relations and women’s (particularly mothers’) experiences with conflict and extremism. She holds master’s degrees in international politics and gender and development from the Institute of Social Sciences in the Netherlands. Read more
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