Tag: United States
#epicfail
Whatever happens tomorrow in Egypt, it can’t be good. That anyway is the consensus among journalists and experts for the demonstrations and counter-demonstrations planned to mark President Morsi’s first year in office.
According to Pew, the Muslim Brotherhood and the more conservative Salafists have a marginally favorable view of the country’s direction, of how democracy is working out and of the government’s respect for personal freedoms. By wider margins, they also like the new constitution and think future elections will be fair. Islamists are clearly prepared to defend Morsi from what they regard as an illegitimate rebellion against him.
The gap with non-Islamists in the National Salvation Front (NSF) is dramatic and widening. They don’t like the country’s direction, are dissatisfied with the new constitution, don’t think elections will be fair, don’t like the way democracy is working out or the government’s respect for personal freedoms. A substantial portion of the NSF adherents are now backing Tamarod, the petition-based rebellion calling for Morsi’s ouster, a new constitution and new elections. Read more
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Build, baby, build
In the context of the Arab-Israeli conflict there are few issues that create more controversy than the Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Many have preconceived notions about these settlements, their inhabitants, and their effect on the potential for comprehensive agreement between the Palestinians and the Israelis. The UN condemns them as human rights violations; the US seeks to limit their expansion; and the EU uncharacteristically remains quiet.
Meanwhile, the Yesha Council, an umbrella political organization that is connected to several of Israel’s parliamentary parties continues to succeed in advancing its settlement building agenda. On Tuesday, Dani Dayan, Yesha’s chief foreign envoy spoke in Washington DC as part of a US tour to connect with American academics and government officials.
Framing his conversation in the context of the 20th anniversary of the Oslo Accords, Dayan comes off as part-historian, part-professional lobbyist, and part-PR man. Engaging a group of diverse political orientations, Mr. Dayan, a successful businessman, is an impressive speaker who understands his audiences and crafts his organization’s message effectively. Read more
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Peace picks June 24-28
Summer doldrums have not yet arrived:
1. The Chinese Cyber Challenge: How to Address the Growing Threat, Atlantic Council, Monday, June 24 / 2:00pm – 3:30pm
Venue: Army & Navy Club
901 17th St, NW, Washington, DC 20006
Speakers: Dmitri Alperovitch, James Mulvenon, Gregory J. Rattray, Jason Healey
In recent months, the United States has gone public in a series of speeches by senior officials about Chinese cyber espionage. In an address in March to the Asia Society, outgoing national security adviser Thomas E. Donilon said “sophisticated, targeted” thefts of confidential information and technology were coming from China “on an unprecedented scale.” US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel also accused Beijing of involvement in cyber espionage in a speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue, openly blaming the Chinese government and military for “cyber intrusions” into sensitive US information systems. A summit meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama last week brought cybersecurity to the center of US-China relations, but failed to result in any agreement. Cyber espionage destabilizes every facet of the US-China relationship, and how the United States addresses these problems will be a harbinger of its overall approach to the challenge China poses to the global commons.
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Same name, different challenges
Earlier this week news broke that the US and the Taliban had agreed to meet for direct peace talks. While President Karzai’s administration has protested these negotiations and delayed them, it appears likely the parties will meet in coming weeks. The outcome of these talks could significantly affect the future of US-Afghan relations and might help determine the nature and timeline of the US military withdrawal.
Some argue that Pakistan’s role in helping the US pursue the Afghan Taliban has driven their willingness to negotiate. Yet, Pakistan is simultaneously dealing with its own version of Islamic extremism, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), or the Pakistani Taliban. Aqab Malik, a scholar at Pakistan’s National Defense University provided insight into the planned negotiations during a presentation this past Thursday at Johns Hopkins SAIS, where he is a visiting professor. Representing his own views (and not the official stance of the Pakistani government) Malik, an expert on both the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, gave an overview of security concerns and discussed the implications of including the Taliban in the future Afghan state. Read more
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Dayton reexamined
I wrote this piece some months ago for a Swedish publication, Axess. They have just published it, in Swedish:
“Dayton.” The word has come to signify the end of the seemingly intractable violence in Bosnia from 1992 to 1995. The narrative surrounding it is powerful: after everyone else had tried and failed, an American diplomat took the warring parties off to an isolated air force base in Ohio, where he bent them to his will and ended the war. Richard Holbrooke left no doubt in his book To End a War that the critical moment was when he convinced Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to accept peace with the Federation (Bosniak and Croat) forces arrayed against him and the army of Republika Srpska. The story of how the Americans packed their bags and made Milosevic believe that they were getting ready to leave Dayton is classic. This was the triumph of American will, and guile.
The “Dayton” narrative is powerful but inaccurate and misleading. It has never accorded with what I actually experienced at Dayton during the first ten days of the talks, when I negotiated with German diplomat Michael Steiner the first agreement reached there. Now forgotten, it strengthened the predominantly Bosniak/Croat Federation, which at the time was winning the war in Bosnia. During my stay in Dayton, Holbrooke spent most of his time cajoling the Serbs into freeing an American journalist (David Rohde) who had gotten himself caught in Pale. He talked far more to Slobodan Milosevic than to anyone else and was clearly charmed. Captivated might be more accurate. Read more
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A Wolf in sheep’s clothing?
As the Arab uprisings continue to unfold, it is unclear how countries in the Middle East will act on issues of plurality and human rights. On Monday, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted a talk on the Future of Religious Minorities in the Middle East. Congressman Frank Wolf, co-chairman of the Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission, delivered a presentation on religious minorities in the region, based on a series of visits to the Middle East.
Wolf reminded that oppression of religious minorities is not new in the region. The Iranian government repressed its Baha’i minority since 1979, killing hundreds of its leaders and dismissing tens of thousands from jobs. The recent uprisings in the region have exacerbated the situation. The Arab Spring “devolved into Winter for many of the most vulnerable in these societies—foremost among them the ancient Christian communities,” according to the Congressman.
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