Tag: United States
Stevenson’s army, March 5
– A distinguished historian of Russia says the US made a key mistake last November in signing a“strategic partnership” with Ukraine. I hadn’t noticed it myself.
– Politico reports on the supply lines of western equipment into Ukraine.
– WaPo notes what US & NATO are not saying.
– FP reports a new NSC hire.
– In a new annual report, China says it wants to “resolve” the Taiwan issue.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, March 4
– US & Russia establish military hotline.
-Russia has friends in Africa.
-WH wants$10 Billion in new Ukraine aid.
– NYT assesses Ukraine military so far.
– BBC tells who’s who in Putin’s inner circle.
– Lawfare lists pros and cons of foreign fighters.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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One more Trump first
I know we are all focused on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but in the meanwhile the Congressional committee investigating January 6 is considering referring Donald Trump for prosecution:
This is good news, as it both nails the January 6 assault on the Capitol as criminal and also assigns accountability to the then President. That’s a first for the US Congress and a past President. Now let’s see what the Department of Justice will do with it.
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Ukraine and Iran will make Syria harder
Ukraine may seem far from Syria. But it is not. Nor is Iran. What happens in Ukraine won’t stay in Ukraine. What happens in Iran as well as Ukraine will affect the now more than decade-old war in Syria, through geography, markets, diplomacy, and politics.
The fighting and sanctions will hamper Russia in Syria
The Russians have been fighting insurgency in Syria since 2015, primarily with air power but also with some troops on the ground. The effort is not large, but Ukraine will take priority. Sanctions will severely limit Russian financial resources. This could affect not only military resources but also willingness to invest in reconstruction. The state-owned companies that might take such a risk are not going to have the cash to do it.
In addition, Russian relations with Turkey, the US, and possibly Israel will be strained. Cooperation with Turkey is important in northwest Syria, where Turkish troops and proxies are in control. Cooperation is important with the US in northeast Syria, where American troops are supporting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces. Israel depends on Russian restraint when its aircraft attack Iranian forces and shipments inside Syria.
Moscow will have little reason to segregate the diplomatic and deconfliction issues in Syria from Ukraine. A weakened Russia may well seek pressure points in Syria to respond to international pressure in Ukraine.
Iran will be emboldened
Russia and Iran both support the Assad regime in Syria, but they also compete for influence there. Assuming the Iran nuclear deal revives, Tehran will have a lot more money with oil at around $100/barrel. Some portion of that will find its way to military and financial support for Assad. Even if the JCPOA remains moribund, Iran will find itself strengthened in Syria relative to Russia. It will try to use that strength to embed itself more strongly into the Syrian regime, in particular its security forces (which have grown closer to Russia in recent years).
An emboldened Iran will be less likely to compromise on Syria issues than a weakened Russia, but Moscow has the vital veto in the UN Security Council. Tehran might be even more inclined than Russia to shut off vital cross-border humanitarian assistance to Syrians, but in the end Moscow will decide.
The West’s stake in Syria will increase
The Ukraine war increases the West’s stake in Syria. Abandoning its anti-regime fight there would raise serious doubts about American and European resolve to continue support for Ukraine. Credibility isn’t everything, but it is something. The Biden administration had already tacitly recommitted the US to its continuing presence in northeast Syria supporting the Kurds and allied Arabs, if only to avoid a second Afghanistan debacle and to continue the counter-terrorism fight.
Net net
Syria has not been going anywhere anyway. The UN-sponsored constitutional talks are stalled, humanitarian relief is falling short, terrorism threats are growing, and accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity is limited for now to gathering of documentation and the German courts. Russian weakness, Iranian strength, and Western resolve are going to make things harder, not easier.
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Stevenson’s army, February 26
-WH wants Ukraine supplemental.
– Administration debates arming a Ukrainian insurgency.
– Former CIA official describes such an insurgency.
– NYT sees Russian attack slowed.
– NYT sees pro-Russian sentiment online.
Good background: WaPo ticktock on Biden actions in 2 weeks before the invasion
– NYT annotates Putin war speech.
For people under 30, most of Europe [Balkans excepted] has been at peace, democratic, with freedom of movement of people and goods. That era has ended. We’re back to 19th century politics with 21st century weapons. The first sad lesson about Ukraine that comes to me is what the Indian defense minister said right after the Gulf War in 1991: “Never fight the U.S. without nuclear weapons.” Ukraine surrendered theirs in return for security guarantees from the US and Russia.
On domestic politics, see this centrist Democratic critique of the party’s direction.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 25
You’ll have to follow the war news on your own. WaPo NYT & others have live updates.
Here are some pieces I found interesting:
–Background on Daleep Singh, the NSC guy on sanctions. He forecast what is happening.
– SAIS Prof Hal Brands on the ChIna-Russia connection.
– NYT background on US dealings with China about Russia.
– Chinese foreign ministry press conference on Ukraine.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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