Tag: United States

A blue future, but there’s a big if

I’ve written little in recent days, mainly because I spent the Christmas holiday plus in San Antonio Texas, where my younger son, his wife, and their daughter live. It’s difficult to focus on the Russian threat to Ukraine while enjoying your only grand daughter in a city far not just from the maddening crowd but from the even more maddening international policy community.

Some readers will think I might have been politically uncomfortable in Texas, whose state leadership is leading the extremist right on voting rights, abortion, and lots of other issues. But that would be wrong. San Antonio, while not as blue as DC (slmost nowhere is), is still cerulean. At least in Alamo Heights, a mostly privileged part of town, lawn signs declare black lives matter more often than they tout Donald Trump. In the 2020 election, Biden beat Trump in San Antonio 58/40. The city is majority minority, with a 64% LatinX population, more often still referred to there as Hispanic. Even among the inhabitants of the mansions of Terrell Hills, Biden won 2/1.

Atlanta, Georgia, where I spent Thanksgiving, is likewise blue, though to my surprise its population is only 1/3 black. I’m surprised because the inner city districts I frequent, though gentrifying apace, seem heavily populated by young, up-and-coming black professionals, in addition to some older long-time black residents. As in San Antonio, outlying areas are more white, and red, but the recent in-migrants are mostly white. Biden won in the center city (Fulton County) by an astounding 83/16, but he also won in surrounding counties by lesser margins.

Both cities have a good vibe. The commercial districts I witnessed were thriving, if not always bustling. The contrast with downtown and Chevy Chase DC is striking. Both of these former upscale shopping districts are now a wasteland of empty storefronts. It will take the better part of a decade to recover, if not longer. In Atlanta, the commercial areas adjacent to the Beltline are hopping. In San Antonio, the Lincoln Heights and Quarry shopping centers are not quite as hip, but their parking lots are full.

I can’t say much about the people in Atlanta and San Antonio, as epidemic conditions kept older people like us mostly isolated. In San Antonio, it is striking how many people walking on the street greet you with “how are you doing,” without expecting an answer. In Atlanta, a wave is all you usually get, which is true in DC too. In Atlanta and San Antonio, the driving is respectful of pedestrians on the side streets, but on the main drags pedestrians are not much better than stray dogs. In DC, the driving on side streets is a bit less respectful but on the main drags isn’t quite as fast and careless.

City infrastructure in Atlanta and San Antonio leaves a lot to be desired compared to DC, where the city has used the two years of epidemic to repave and re-sidewalk a good part of at least the affluent Northwest. I got a pot hole filled within a few days in front of my house just by reporting it on line. Atlanta and San Antonio have sidewalks, where they exist, that are often decrepit and streets that are worse. I don’t know about San Antonio, but local taxes in DC and Atlanta are comparable–perhaps even a bit higher in Atlanta. There and in San Antonio high school football stadiums seem preferred to decent cityscape.

The cars available in these three cities are the same, but the local preferences are different. In San Antonio, the availability of hybrids and all-electric cars seems to have encouraged the purchase of upscale behemoths. There are also many more large pickup trucks and SUVs in Texas, where size really does seem to matter. Or perhaps vehicle size compensates for the anatomical. Size seems to matter less in DC and Atlanta, though the latter sports a striking number of people who believe driving without a muffler is manly.

I can’t say anything about culture in these three cities, as it has now been a long time since I’ve enjoyed a major performance or museum. DC has a pair of fabulous small opera companies–the In Series and Bel Cantanti–that I’m pretty sure aren’t matched in San Antonio or Atlanta. San Antonio is hosting a road version of Hamilton, which has also been seen in Atlanta and DC. It’s a good thing they called it a rap musical. Had it been labelled what it is–an opera–I doubt many would have seen it. I look forward to the day it appears at the Met.

We are all worried these days about Omicron, even if Atlanta and San Antonio are noticeably less masked than DC. Masked, I got chastised for getting too close to someone (also masked) on the check-out line at Walgreens in San Antonio. But the virus is in its last, less sickening but more contagious, phase. This makes sense, as evolution favors contagion, not deadliness. There is a lot of doom and gloom among those who worry about hospital capacity, anti-vaxxers, flight cancellations, and people who try to get on aircraft unmasked.

I’m preferring to think that we can look forward to increasingly blue cities that get the less deadly Omicron under control and can hope for economic revival as well as declining political strife. The only real question is whether urban votes will be allowed to count equally with those in less populated areas. The future is blue, if everyone’s vote counts equally. That’s a big if.

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Stevenson’s army, December 30

– NYT reports what US officials expect from today’s Biden-Putin call.

– AEI’s Kori Schake says Russia is being deterred.

– Other analysts think naval action more likely.

– WSJ says Biden’s trade policy conflicts with alliance repair.

– I agree with WOTR article that unmanned systems often have unrecognized costs.

– NYT has best obit on Harry Reid.  I still regret his ending of filibuster on nominations.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, December 27

– The Guardian says US & Japan are coordinating on Taiwan.

Russia will have talks with US & NATO in January.

– WSJ reports how Taliban “outwitted and outwaited” US.

– Just Security has long report on military activity last January 6.

– NYT reviews book challenging views on WWII.  I also found the book persuasive. My take is here.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, December 21

– Former head of the National Intelligence Council Greg Treverton warns a civil war is coming to the US.

– Manchin friend Steve Clemons explains the breakdown.

US & UK helping Ukraine prepare for Russian cyber attack.

– NYT says drones tipped balance in Ethiopia war.

– Reuters says Chinese spies have infiltrated Taiwan military.

– Atlantic Council warns of 2022 problems.

I somehow missed this from Charlie yesterday:

– I’m surprised and puzzled by the Manchin statement on the administration’s domestic policy bill. Normally, experienced politicians keep their word. And it sure looked like Biden was treating the Senator gingerly, never pressuring him in public. But something led Manchin to break publicly — his own ambitions? something Schumer did? something Biden or his top aides have done? The WH statement is extraordinary. Nevertheless, Biden needs Manchin for other things, as do his colleagues, so I expect renewed talks after thingds cool down.

Sen. Cruz got his vote promised and he let some nominees through. This is normal.

– FP has a story on how interns run Washington.

– NYT has a new story on how China manipulates Facebook and Twitter.

– Don’t forget to keep checking CRS for new reports. Here’s one on Use of Force in Cyberspace.  And an update on State/Foreign Ops appropriations.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, December 19

– The new NDAA forbids dishonorable discharges for military personnel who refuse to get vaccinations.

– 3 retired general warn of insurrection in 2024.

-Some Israeli officials doubt ability to strike Iran.

– Major NYT review of  airstrike investigations finds undercounts of civilian casualties and reluctance to blame US.

– WaPo says US greatly expanded air attacks in Afghanistan in mid-2021.

From the entrepreneurial NatSecDaily:

FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — AMERICANS WARY OF GOING TO WAR OVER UKRAINE: A new YouGov poll commissioned by the pro-restraint Charles Koch Institute found that there are more Americans skeptical of going to war with Russia than those who are gung-ho.

In response to the question “If Ukraine is invaded again by Russia, do you favor or oppose the US going to war with Russia to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity?” 28 percent of respondents said they “strongly oppose” the idea while another 20 percent said they “somewhat oppose” it. By contrast, only 9 percent said they “strongly favor” going to war with Russia and 18 percent said they “somewhat favor” the notion. Meanwhile, 24 percent of the 1,000 internet-using Americans surveyed said they “don’t know.”

That’s not an outright repudiation of the idea of going to war to defend Ukraine from Moscow’s forces, but this one poll indicates a majority of people are at least skeptical.

Importantly, Biden to date has ruled out sending U.S. troops to Ukraine to fight the Russians, were they to invade.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Stevenson’s army, December 12

– NYT says US & Israel sharply divided over Iran.

– CNN reports new WH rules on reporting cyber attacks.

– Cook Political Report writer says GOP has already gained  10-15 House seats through gerrymandering.

– WaPo reminds how GOP snubbed Bob Dole.

– Military.com says Japanese learned how to attack Pearl Harbor by watching US exercises.

Some more from Charlie, under the heading threats to democracy:

– WaPo & NYT have several articles on the issue.  Thomas Edsall surveyed political scientists and reports their analyses.

– A former GOP official says the right wing is already mobilizing.

– Kevin Drum explains why GOP believes Trump won.

-WSJ says redistricting is eliminating swing districts.

– G7 issued a warning to Russia on Ukraine.  

– NYT has more on the secret US unit in Syria which was “reckless” in targeting.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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