Tag: United States
The path to ending the Kosovo conundrum
With apologies for the delay and thanks to Adam DuBard for getting it done, I am posting the report my students presented on Zoom Tuesday: Ending the Kosovo Conundrum (it is also now available on the SAIS website here). While our SAISers offered lots of interesting ideas about ways in which the EU-sponsored Belgrade/Pristina dialogue could be improved, they are not optimistic about the kind of comprehensive solution that the EU says is the objective of its Belgrade/Pristina dialogue. There is a stalemate, but it is hurting Kosovo more than Serbia, which is prepared to postpone–maybe forever–recognition of Kosovo as a sovereign and independent state.
This is understandable. Serbian President Vucic does not welcome the kind of rule of law and uncorrupt government the EU is demanding ever more insistently from potential new member states. Serbia got everything it asked for from Kosovo in the UN’s Ahtisaari Plan, which was intended as a prelude to Kosovo’s independence. Belgrade pocketed the concessions but refused recognition, even after the International Court of Justice advised that Kosovo’s declaration of independence did not violate international law. Without the EU “carrot,” which Vucic is now disdaining, there is little hope of his changing his mind. Good neighborly relations are not going to be written on Vucic’s epitaph.
This leaves Kosovo in limbo, but not without a course of action: NATO membership is the key next step. This will require convincing four of the five EU countries that do not recognize Kosovo at least to accept it into the Alliance. Greece, Slovakia, Romania, and Spain are the holdouts, more or less in ascending order of difficulty. Cyprus is not a NATO member but cannot be entirely ignored because of its influence on Greece. That is the tail wagging the dog and will require a courageous Greek Prime Minister to get it to stop, but Greece already maintains an ambassadorial-level representative in Pristina and an office that is an embassy in all but name.
Kosovo is slated to complete the transformation of its security forces, a few of which have already deployed to Kuwait with the Iowa National Guard, into an army by 2027, with assistance from the US and UK. So there is ample time for the US and UK to convince the non-recognizing allies to accept Kosovo, even if they do not formally recognize it. NATO membership will require in addition that Kosovo meet the Alliance’s criteria:
a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy; fair treatment of minority
populations; a commitment to resolve conflicts peacefully; an ability and willingness to make a military
contribution to NATO operations; and a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutions.
These criteria are entirely compatible with EU membership, which is further off because Kosovo will have to in addition adopt and implement the acquis communautaire, an elaborate and extensive set of legal requirements.
This then is the strategy I would propose for the Kosovo government:
- focus on preparation for NATO membership, including resolution of conflicts with Serbia on issues like missing people and financial settlements but without expecting recognition anytime soon;
- improve relations with the Kosovo Serb community, whose interests are not identical with Belgrade’s, throughout Kosovo, including by providing it with access to the dialogue with Serbia for those who are not tied to Belgrade, better economic opportunities, protection of property rights, and continued efforts to recruit Serbs for the Kosovo armed forces;
- disavow any prospect of union with Albania, because it is incompatible with NATO membership, as Ed Joseph suggests;
- build capable state institutions, including a Defense Ministry committed to civilian control;
- protect media freedom, continue cooperation with civil society, and ensure an independent judiciary;
- begin to examine objectively the pre-independence fight for liberation from Serbian rule.
Many Kosovo Albanians are disappointed in the fruits of their efforts since declaring independence in 2008. But the distance ahead to NATO membership is far shorter than the time since independence. The government now has what should be a stable majority. Sovereignty depends on governing capacity. It is time to intensify efforts to build a worthy state, leaving the question of Serbian recognition to the day there is leadership in Belgrade that really cares about EU membership and realizes its own European future depends on it. Because it does.
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It’s not only about Montenegro
Colleague Mike Haltzel has a lot to say about Montenegro:
Hard for me to disagree with any of this, but I might have put more emphasis on Russia’s and Serbia’s efforts to undermine Montenegro’s independence. It has been their troublemaking, including through the Serbian Orthodox Church, that has made it difficult for a pro-EU opposition to emerge in Montenegro. President Djukanovic has had a virtual monopoly on liberal democratic ideals because the main serious political alternative has been Serb ethnic nationalist.
Now Montenegro is in a kind of ethnic security dilemma: anything Montenegrins do to preserve their identity is perceived as attacking Serbian identity and the Serbian state; and anything Serbs in Montenegro do to preserve their identity is perceived as an attack on Montenegrin identity and the Montenegrin state. Perhaps the biggest losers in this have been minorities, whom the Serbs see as devotees of President Djukanovic because they have consistently participated in governing coalitions with his political party. With no apparent way of winning them over because Serb identity excludes them, self-identified Serbs in Montenegro are hoping to intimidate and chase out Bosniaks, other Muslims, and Albanians while enfranchising as many ex-patriot Serbs as possible.
Russia and Serbia are strong supporters of Serb ambitions in Montenegro, not least because the former aim to undermine NATO and the latter to pursue the latest Serb fantasy, the “Serbian Home.” That’s the updated moniker for Greater Serbia, a single state that incorporates parts of neighboring states that Serbs inhabit (i.e. part of not only Montenegro but also Kosovo, Croatia, and Bosnia). It isn’t going to happen, but Serbia is aiming at least to re-impose its hegemony on its neighbors, even if that means destabilizing them, slowing their progress towards the EU, or undermining their credentials as NATO allies.
I’ve never quite understood a country that wants unstable neighbors, but in a zero-sum world it would make sense. Whatever I gain will come at my neighbors’ expense. The world since the financial crisis of 2007/8 has been close to zero sum, especially in Europe. Unwelcome migration, Brexit, the Greek financial crisis (and the threat of other financial crises), slow economic growth, and nationalist populism have undermined the attraction of the EU and provided Moscow and Belgrade with opportunities to project their more autocratic alternatives. The availibility of Chinese money has compounded the incentives to turn East rather than West, though Montenegro’s own billion-dollar loan is already going south. It should be a warning to others.
The US has already begun its post-pandemic economic expansion. Europe has not. Let’s hope it comes sooner rather than later, not only for Montenegro’s sake.
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What it’s not about, and what it is about
Framing is important, both at home and abroad.
At home, the Republicans are trying to focus on voter fraud. They all know that is not even remotely a problem. There is no evidence that fraud affected the outcome of the 2020 election in any state. But defining voter fraud as a major issue provides the excuse Republicans need to limit voting in hope of favoring their own candidates. Making voting harder, they think, will reduce the numbers of minority citizens, especially Blacks, who bother to turn out. Liz Cheney was voted out of her House leadership position because she refused to go along with the Big Lie about voter fraud, which is the ultimate test of loyalty to Donald Trump and the objectives of the January 6 insurrection on Capitol Hill.
Abroad, the Israeli government is focusing on Hamas rocket fire from Gaza, ignoring the evictions of Palestinians from their homes in East Jerusalem and the brutal repression of Muslim demonstrators on the Temple Mount/Haram al Sharif that initiated the current frictions between Palestinians and Jews. The former Netanyahu would prefer to define as “real estate” disputes; the latter he defines as law enforcement against militants. Having lost his bid to form still another government, Netanyahu hopes to prevent Yair Lapid, the current holder of the mandate, from doing so. War with Hamas is a convenient amplification of a pre-existing crisis, one that might bring Netanyahu the support he was lacking, extend his caretaker status, or precipitate still another, likely inconclusive, Israeli election.
So where do real solutions lie?
At home, the Republican Party has shrunk to 25% of the electorate. Most of what remains is loyal to Trump and the Big Lie. This will guarantee that most of its candidates in 2022 come from his white supremacist corner. That is not the worst thing that can happen for Democrats, who have a good chance of going in to the next Congressional election with the epidemic under control and the economy restored at least to its prior 2% or so growth path. Predicting the outcome of elections is a fool’s errand, but even if Republican-majority state legislatures succeed in limiting minority voting, Democratic prospects could still be good. Control of the House and Senate will come down to a very few seats in even fewer states. A focused, unified effort could produce continued Democratic majorities in both Houses.
In the Middle East, prospects are not so good. Hamas is figuring it will gain political support from its “resistance” rocket fire, at least in the West Bank if not in Gaza. The bombardment will move Israelis in a more militant direction, especially as it appears to have ignited strife between Jews and Arabs inside Israel proper. Insecurity is a powerful political incentive that does not favor moderation. The only realistic alternative to a right-wing government in Israel is one with Arab support, but that has never happened and isn’t likely in the aftermath of the current fighting. Netanyahu may not survive, but his siege politics will, especially if the current covert war with Iran continues.
Ilan Goldenberg suggests the US has a supporting, not primary, role to play in ending the current fighting between Hamas and Israel. The UN and Egyptians he says should lead. That may well be so, but I still think it good that Secretary Blinken said today:
Israelis and Palestinians need to be able to live in safety and security, as well as enjoy equal measures of freedom, security, prosperity, and democracy.
This points clearly in the direction of equal rights, whether in one state or two. That is what the Israeli government needs to understand: its current policy of “mowing the grass” and maintaining a regime of unequal rights, both inside Israel and in the West Bank (not to mention Gaza!) is not sustainable. Israel cannot be both democratic and Jewish without allowing creation of a Palestinian state. Netanyahu doesn’t care, because he isn’t a democrat. He is as much a Jewish supremacist as Trump is a white supremacist. But Israel is rapidly losing support among Democrats in the United States, most of whom are committed to equal rights at home and abroad. That is what it is really all about.
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Ending the Kosovo conundrum
The Conflict Managment program at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies sponsors a trip every January to a conflict area, after a semester of related study and briefings in DC. This year we did the trip virtually (via Zoom) to Pristina and Belgrade. You are cordially invited to attend our presentation of research results and recommendations for the future, 4:30 pm May 18, register here:
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Stevenson’s army, May 10
– NYT says administration is readying new cyber order.
– WSJ says US is looking for new bases in Central Asia.
– Many of you want to bring back USIA [I agree] NYT reports on what China is already doing to dominate the global media.
– Yahoo News has big story on the Soleimani killing, including internal disagreements in the Trump administration.
– WaPo reports problems in US anti-corruption programs in Central America.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, April 30
– In class, we talked about originalism as a school of judicial interpretation. The Yale law prof who has used history for more liberal conclusions is Akhil Reed Amar. And Slate has a new piece arguing that a pending gun laws case poses a dilemma for originalists who oppose restrictions.
– I recently saw a stunning new documentary, The Hunt for Bin Laden. Politico has an article drawing on the oral histories used in that documentary.
– FP argues that US withdrawal from Afghanistan will be very expensive.
– DNI warns about China’s reaction to change in US Taiwan policy.
– CFR report says there’s still hope for arms control.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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