Tag: United States
Peace Picks | July 6 – 10
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live stream.
- Online Event: CSIS Debate Series: Great Power Competition | July 7, 2020 | 9:00 AM – 10:00 AM EST | Center for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) | Register Here
Since the start of the Trump Administration, the United States has identified strategic competition with China and Russia as a core objective in sub-Saharan Africa. In the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and President Trump’s Africa Strategy, the U.S. government committed itself to counter threats posed by its global rivalries. In December 2018, then-National Security Adviser John Bolton claimed Beijing and Moscow’s activities “stunt economic growth in Africa; threaten the financial independence of African nations; inhibit opportunities for U.S. investment; interfere with U.S. military operations; and pose a significant threat to U.S. national security interests.”
In its fifth and final debate, the CSIS Africa Program asks former U.S. policymakers and African leaders if great power competition is the most constructive framework for formulating and implementing U.S. policies in sub-Saharan Africa. Does it promote stability, prosperity, independence, and security on the African continent? What are the opportunities and risks embedded in this concept? Does it effectively incorporate African perspectives and agency? And how does it evolve during a global pandemic?
Speakers:
Dr. Oby Ezekwesili: Public Policy Analyst & Senior Economic Advisor, Africa Economic Development Policy Initiative
Ken Ofori-Atta: Minister for Finance & Economic Planning, Ghana; Co-Founder, Databank Group
Gayle Smith: President & CEO, ONE Campaign
Juan Zarate: Senior Adviser, CSIS; Chairman & Co-Founder, Financial Integrity Network
Judd Devermont: Director, CSIS Africa Program - Israel’s Growing Ties With the Gulf Arab States | July 7, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Once thought to be irreconcilable adversaries, Israel and the Gulf states have quietly grown closer in recent years. Drawing the two camps together is a slew of security, political, and economic interests that in light of changing regional geopolitics, is now out from under the table. Yet the unresolved Palestinian issue as well as limited ties in a number of sectors pose barriers to normalization.
In their just-launched issue brief Israel’s growing Ties With the Gulf Arab States (PDF coming soon), Jerusalem-based journalist Jonathan Ferziger and National Defense University Professor Gawdat Bahgat trace the remarkable evolution of these relationships in recent years. Joining them to discuss suggestions for policymakers are Anne W. Patterson, former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs,and Marc J. Sievers, Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and former US Ambassador to Oman.
Speakers:
Dr. Gawdat Baghat: Professor of National Security Affairs, National Defense University
Jonathan Ferziger: Former Chief Political Reporter for Israeli and Palestinian Affairs, Bloomberg News
Ambassador Anne W. Patterson: Former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs
Ambassador Mark J. Sievers: Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council - The Scramble for Libya: A Globalized Civil War at Tipping Point | July 8, 2020 | 9:30 AM – 10:45 AM EST | Carnegie Endowment for International Peace | Register Here
In the wake of recent battlefield developments in Libya, regional and global powers are maneuvering for influence and supremacy, with far-reaching implications for Libyan sovereignty, stability, and cohesion. What are the interests and goals of these interveners and what prospects remain for peaceful settlement? How have these states weaponized media narratives to augment their military meddling, and what is the effect both inside Libya and abroad?
A distinguished panel of scholars will offer insights into Russian, Turkish, Emirati, Egyptian, and French roles, as well as Libyan perspectives on foreign actors.
Speakers:
Dmitri Trenin: Director, Carnegie Moscow Center
Sinan Ulgin: Visiting Scholar, Carnegie Europe
Jalel Harchaoui: Research Fellow, Conflict Research Unit, Clingendael Institute
Khadeja Ramali: Libyan Researcher (Specialty: Social Media Analysis)
Frederic Wehrey: Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - Congressional Perspectives on US-China Relations | July 8, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM EST | U.S. Institute of Peace | Register Here
The U.S.-China relationship is having an increasingly profound impact on the global economy and plays a crucial role in influencing the international order. The House of Representatives’ bipartisan U.S.-China Working Group provides a platform for frank and open discussions and educates members of Congress and their staff. These congressional perspectives toward China have influence over U.S. policy and the bilateral relationship, particularly regarding oversight of the global coronavirus pandemic, implementation of phase one of the U.S.-China trade agreement, and Beijing’s imposition of a controversial new national security law in Hong Kong.
Join USIP as we host the co-chairs of the U.S.-China Working Group, Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA) and Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), for a conversation that explores key issues facing the U.S.-China relationship, shifting views in Congress on the topic, and the role of Congress in managing rising tensions and facilitating engagement between the two countries.
Speakers:
Representative Rick Larsen (D-WA): U.S. Representative from Washington
Representative Darin LaHood (R-IL): U.S. Representative from Illinois
The Honorable Nancy Lindborg: President & CEO, U.S. Institute of Peace - Information in Iran: How Recent Global Events Are Used to Shape & Skew Reality | July 9, 2020 | 9:00 AM EST | Atlantic Council | Register Here
While there has been significant attention given to foreign influence operations by state-actors like Iran, far less has been given to how global events shape—and skew—the reality depicted by the Iranian regime to the Iranian people. Over the past months, Iran has faced new challenges and opportunities in the information landscape – domestically, regionally, and internationally.
Iran has been especially hard hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which has been exacerbated by heavy-handed censorship about the threat of the disease and the government’s response. The situation has been compounded by an influx of general health misinformation about coronavirus that proved fatal to hundreds of Iranian citizens.
Across the Middle East, COVID-19 is the latest topic in a long-running contest of narratives between regional adversaries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The competition is not new, but the topics certainly change with the news.
The Iranian regime has also attempted to shift attention toward other country’s shortcoming in responding to COVID-19 and capitalize on unrest elsewhere, especially racial justice protests over the killing of George Floyd in the United States. This is the latest in an effort not to proactively push propaganda with a focus on domestic control in the face of Iran’s own ongoing protest movement and international competition against adversarial nations.
This digital panel discussion will examine Iran’s information environment in the face of the latest global developments. This event, hosted by the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab and Middle East Program, will provide an overview of these overlapping information conflicts.
Speakers:
Emerson T. Brooking: Resident Fellow, Digital Forensic Research Lab, Atlantic Council
Holly Dagres: Non-Resident Fellow, Atlantic Council
Simin Kargar: Non-Resident Fellow, Digital Forensic Research Lab, Atlantic Council
Michael Lipin: Voice of America
Farhad Souzanchi: Director of Research & Media, ASL19
- How to Lose the Information War: Russia, Fake News, and the Future of Conflict | July 9, 2020 | 1:00 PM – 2:00 PM EST | Wilson Center | Register Here
Since the start of the Trump era, and as coronavirus has become an “infodemic,” the United States and the Western world have finally begun to wake up to the threat of online warfare and attacks from malign actors. The question no one seems to be able to answer is: what can the West do about it?
Nina Jankowicz, the Disinformation Fellow at the Wilson Center’s Science and Technology Innovation Program, lays out the path forward in How to Lose the Information War: Russia, Fake News, and the Future of Conflict. The book reports from the front lines of the information war in Central and Eastern Europe on five governments’ responses to disinformation campaigns. It journeys into the campaigns the Russian and domestic operatives run, and shows how we can better understand the motivations behind these attacks and how to beat them. Above all, this book shows what is at stake: the future of civil discourse and democracy, and the value of truth itself.
Jankowicz will delve into the case studies in the book and the broader implications of disinformation for democracy in discussion with Asha Rangappa, Senior Lecturer at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs and former FBI counterintelligence agent and with Matthew Rojansky, Director of the Wilson Center’s Kennan Institute.
Speakers:
Nina Jankowicz: Disinformation Fellow, Wilson Center
Asha Rangappa: Senior Lecturer, Yale University Jackson Institute for Global Affairs
Matthew Rojansky: Director, Kennan Institute, Wilson Center
Some cheer for the 4th
It’s hard to work up the usual patriotic optimism this year. The United States faces a quadruple whammy: a re-surging Covid-19 epidemic, the major economic slowdown it has caused, a popular rebellion against police violence and racism, and revelations that President Trump failed to respond to Moscow’s payment of bounties to Taliban who kill Americans in Afghanistan. The President is trying to distract attention from all four, but that really is impossible.
We all, including his supporters, know that
- He is responsible for the failed response to the epidemic,
- Congress has shaped the response to the recession,
- He has nothing constructive to say or do about systemic racism, because he himself is a racist, and
- President Putin is his control.
Trump still has a significant but declining coalition based on white nationalism, evangelical Christianity, and right-wing cultural issues, including abortion, gay rights, and and support for religious schools. But he has already lost the popular vote, if only because he will lose New York State and California by landslides while in Texas and Florida he can do no better than eke out a narrow win. Nothing he can do between now and November 3 will change those dynamics, which may turn worse for him rather than better. Unless he really botches this campaign, Joe Biden will get at least five million more votes than Trump, coming close to doubling Hillary Clinton’s margin.
Trump can however still win in the Electoral College, which is all that really counts. For the non-Americans in my readership, let me explain that the winner in an American election gets the most “electoral votes,” which are not distributed proportionally to population of each the states. Less populous states are far more heavily weighted in the distribution of “electoral votes.” Systems like this are known to political scientists as “consociationalism,” or more simply as “power-sharing.” They do not accord “one person one vote.”
Donald Trump’s support is concentrated in more rural, less populous states, so he can lose the popular vote but still win in the Electoral College. It is not a thing or a place but a date in January on which “electors” in each of the states meet in their own capitals to cast their votes, in most states for the winner of the popular vote in that state, and send them to Washington for tabulation.
Even that cockamamie process may not be able to give Trump the help he needs. He is weakening in “red” (reliably Republican) states and polling behind Biden in key “battleground” (swing or purple) states. He is losing ground among whites, even white males but especially white women in the suburbs. The Economist has Biden with about a 9 in 10 chance of winning the Electoral College. No incumbent has come back from Trump’s kind of polling in recent decades and his numbers are declining (courtesy of G. Elliott Morris):
If things continue in the current direction, Biden could end up with more than 400 electoral votes (270 out of 538 are needed to win), which would be remarkable (Trump won with 304 in 2016).
If the Democrats do win in a landslide and take not only the White House but also the Senate and the House of Representatives, the stage will be set for a dramatic swing of the pendulum. Even a return to moderate politics after the extremism of the Trump years will give us all a big jolt. Biden is no radical, but he will feel the push of his party to the left on race, environment, healthcare, taxation, and other issues.
On the foreign policy front, Biden will return to a more traditional American approach: multilaterally when we can, unilaterally when we must. He’ll be a much more full-throated supporter of liberal democracy and NATO, try to take America back into the Paris climate accord, the Iran nuclear deal, and possibly even the Trans Pacific Partnership, reverse Trump’s support for Israeli expansionism, and try to find ways of peacefully counterbalancing Russia and China. Experience counts in foreign policy. Biden has lots of it.
First though he has to win. The election is just four months off. If Trump continues to alienate swing voters and the economic recovery stalls, you can bet on a more familiar patriotism for next July.
Hashim responds:
Here is Kosovo President Thaci’s response today to the revelation that the Prosecutor of the Kosovo Specialist Chambers has recommended his indictment for war crimes and crimes against humanity:
Sisters and brothers, fellow citizens and compatriots, in Kosovo, Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Presheva Valley, and the diaspora,
I address you tonight, from this office, where for 1542 days, I have had the extraordinary honor of exercising the high duty of the President of our country, a free, independent, and democratic Kosovo.
My heart is hurt, but not broken.
My mind weighs heavy, but is not bleary.
My blood is heated, but clean and unified with the blood of my friends in arms whom I lost in the war.
It is the same as the blood of those who have loved me and supported me without reservation in this journey of state-building.
And, in these moments also those who have opposed me, prejudiced or judged me differently from what I would have liked.
Today, more so than ever before, I feel completely liberated from the worry and weight of political strife.
These worries have sometimes been given greater magnitude than what they deserved.
They have blurred, in your eyes, the simple fact that we are all sons and daughters of this land and we all want what is best for Kosovo.
But politics has these things too.
Today I see clearer than ever before, that regardless of the good intentions of each, some more so and some less so, all of us, the political leaders of Kosovo during these 20 years of effort, in certain moments, have allowed politics to damage our great and shared purpose.
It is entirely natural that at this moment, which is not easy for me, I be reminded of people who no longer live.
Others that I have known along my already long road, from the time when I was an idealistic boy who wanted to change the world until today – with the grey hair.
I have reminisced about historic moments and completely personal moments, and I have thought of my parents, my grandparents, my family and my son, Endrit.
He who today has become a man, and I can look in his eyes without blinking my eyelashes over the ostensible start of a process for war crimes!
I have understood very early on that we, the fighters of KLA, would pay a great human, familial, and political cost.
This is the price for the freedom of Kosovo.
It is just that every accusation and allegation for war crimes be brought to light, from anyone and anywhere it has happened.
My friends of war, with some of whom peace has often separated us into different political camps, have challenged with the great strength of truth many low fabrications, and their innocence has shone over the garbage of monstrous accusations in the end.
It will be the same for me and my brother from the blood of war, Kadri Veseli.
Dear citizens,
Political mistakes in peace I could have made, but war crimes, never!
Even if I were to go back to the dark ages of Milloshevic, I would do the same thing, by answering the bullet of the enemy with the bullet of the thirst for freedom and by not wronging any Serbian, Roma, or Albanian citizen.
But let me make one thing very clear:
For over two decade I have supported initiatives for the establishment of courts with international involvement or oversight.
This principle remains the same today, when it is I, Hashim Thaçi, who could personally be faced with a court for which I have given my political support, with my word and with my vote.
At that time, we were faced with only two paths.
One which I have believed in my whole life and believe in to this day – advancing toward a closer alliance with the United States and the European Union.
The second – that this issue be left in the hands of the Security Council of the United Nations where countries that oppose the state of Kosovo have powerful influence.
My decision was strategic in accordance with my vision for the future of Kosovo.
And I have not looked for daily political benefits.
Today, whoever says that I have apparently become an obstacle, even a saboteur of this court, in the best case is ill-informed and in the worst case is tendentious.
However, on the other hand, someone must assess the balance of these 21 years of investigations, processes and decisions for war crimes in Kosovo.
Dear citizens,
I would be the happiest man if I were to see that the international community is applying the same standards to Kosovo and Serbia in addressing war crimes.
Unfortunately, not only do I not see this standard and proportionality, I see the opposite. And here we are today.
Serbia advances along the road of negotiations for European membership, while Kosovo does not even enjoy the right of free movement!
Naturally, I do not see here a conspiracy against Kosovo.
But the difference in approach by the international community toward the two nations is a fact.
Undoubtedly, we have our faults and responsibilities.
Myself first, and with me all the leaders of political parties in Kosovo, who over several years have not been able to maintain political cohesion.
But no fault or mistake of ours or mine justifies the fact that, for 21 years Kosovo has continued to be confronted with processes of justice for war crimes in her space.
While on the other side, the silence of graves for war crimes has fallen in Serbia.
The silence of Serbia is made more onerous by the silence of the international community.
We have engaged, I have personally and strongly been engaged for dialogue and peace with Serbia.
But I do not agree with and cannot accept the fact that, for thousands of Albanians who are missing because of Sllobodan Millosheviç’s killing machine, the bones of whom are in the soil of Serbia, there be no even international statements.
Should we even expect the day when we will be told that we must apologize to Serbia for our missing people, for our raped mothers and daughters, for the ethnic cleansing and genocide against us?!
This absurd question arises naturally, when no one in Serbia is being held accountable for war crimes any longer!
Nevertheless, today I do not want to dwell on the subject of the comparison of the promotions of justice for war crimes, which will surely take its place in the history of international justice and politics as a gloomy page of theirs for these two decades.
Honored citizens,
During these two decades I have had the privilege of having the support of the majority of you while serving at the helm of the highest national institutions.
Naturally, during these two decades, unintentionally, I have made some slips.
I know of some of them myself today.
I did not hesitate, together friends-in-arms, to wage war against Serbia, with weapons and diplomacy, disregarding the price that I may have had to pay, even my own life.
The war is over. Kosovo is a free and sovereign country.
Thus, during the last two decades, I have worked, and will work for peace and reconciliation with Serbian and the whole Balkans.
Today I do not simply live for myself and my family, but also for the friends that I have buried during the war, for their parents, their children, their nephews and nieces.
I live for the historic mission to which I belong together with Kadri Veseli, Ramush Haradinaj, Fatmir Limaj, and many others who were first in the fight for freedom but also first to be struck and attacked after the war.
Dear citizens,
We did not go to war to win elections or to claim power. We went to either live free, or die for freedom.
We did not have anything other than the great dream for freedom and independence.
But, the passage from the paths of the liberation war, to the corridors of institutions could have not be simple or easy for us.
I can tell you that I was more afraid of these corridors, than of those paths.
During the war, I slept little, but the sleep rejuvenated. After the war, I slept little, but rose exhausted from the dilemmas of how I could do a better job at the tasks of a new day.
I did as much as I could, but not as much as I wanted to.
But today I do not want to list the achievements of my post-war career today because this is neither a message of farewell, nor a moment of work evaluation for me.
I only want to tell you that I have carried on my shoulders many accusations and many offenses over the years.
When I was at the head of the government, I have never denied, and I do not deny today that the same way there have been achievements in the development of Kosovo, I have had challenges in the governance and leadership of the country.
This is natural for a leader.
However, one thing is certain: there has not been, and could not be, even a single piece of evidence addressed to Hashim Thaçi for violations of any law.
The only law that I have trampled is that of Milloseviç.
I did not fall from the sky and am not a saint.
My fate, in entirely unique historical circumstances, has determined the trajectory of my life and my behavior.
Politics was never a source of life for me, but a holy mission to serve this country and you, dear citizens.
No one can be found, in Kosovo or elsewhere, to whom I am indebted,
But, to anyone who has even once given me their vote throughout this part of my career, which continues, tonight I wish to say:
Forgive me if I have not done what you have expected of me, but rest assured that I have not misused your trust.
I bow before your trust.
Honored fellow citizens,
Kosovo is entering a new and in no way easy chapter.
This is a new chapter for me too, and in these moments, I do not know how difficult it will be.
But I am ready to write this chapter with my truth before anyone.
I do not know whether it was chance or intrigue that, midway toward the White House, the notification for an unconfirmed indictment was released.
Will this be the last price that must be paid for the freedom of Kosovo?
The cut me off my road.
But they do not threaten my trust in the values that the United States of America and the White House represent for myself and the citizens of Kosovo.
In the practice of justice of the civilized world, the public announcement of an indictment before it has been approved by the judicial body, is a massive scandal.
No crime, alleged or even committed, by anyone, justifies public lynching.
No good intention or great will for justice can justify the fabrication of a media bomb to incriminate the head of the state of Kosovo, at the exact moment when dialogue with Serbia could enter a new phase, thanks to the direct engagement of the White House.
What justice was interested in this lighting rush and this flagrant violation of the regulations of a process for justice of an independent judiciary?
This question must be addressed at the right time and in the right place.
Whereas the short answer to this question is:
That statement, blew up and rendered impossible a very important meeting at the White House, thereby giving a strong blow to the opportunity of achieving peace between Kosovo and Serbia.
Therefore, the appeal with which I wish to close this message tonight is:
Kosovo must ensure the stable functioning of its national institutions, under any circumstances.
In this new and difficult chapter, we can only move forward united, in the national and international plains alike.
In the following days, I will consult with the political leaders about the next steps.
I assure you again, I will not face justice from this office.
If the accusation is confirmed, I will immediately resign as your President and face the accusations.
Kosovo is a new country, but its leaders must act as real statesmen.
I will carry this burden and protect myself, our fight for freedom, with every ounce of power that I have.
I will not allow these false accusations to the draw away attention of Kosovo from taking its due place in the international community, as a member of the United Nations, NATO, and the European Union.
Kosovo is the homeland of all its citizens. A European country and a multi-ethnic society.
Once again, I say NO to revenge and YES to inter-ethnic tolerance.
Only by building citizen democracy do we build a Euro-Atlantic future.
Dear citizens,
While thanking all of you who have sent me word and encouraging messages, I wish you all the best from my heart.
I thank you for the attention!
God bless Kosovo!
Shore up the Kosovo state
This week’s announcement that the prosecutor of the Specialist Chambers in The Hague has recommended an indictment of Kosovo President Hashim Thaci and a former Speaker of the parliament wrecked the prospects for a Serbia/Kosovo supposedly “economic” summit that was to have taken place in Washington this weekend. That has led some to conclude that Europeans plotted the maneuver, as they resented the American initiative and some have targeted Thaci for years. I’m more inclined to think the Americans did it to themselves, because they had concluded the summit had little chance of success.
Whatever. It’s hard to believe the unusual, some would say illegitimate, initiative to publicize the indictment recommendation was not known in both in Brussels and Washington before it happened. Neither stopped it. The result is an earthquake that has shaken the Kosovo state.
The right reaction is to reinforce that state. Kosovo will need a government with a wider margin in parliament and a new president.
No Kosovo prime minister should come to Washington or Brussels to re-engage in the dialogue with Belgrade without a majority that comes close to matching that of President Vucic, who won more than 75% of the his parliament’s seats in last weekend’s election in Serbia, as the opposition boycotted.
To achieve this, Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti, who came into office less than two months ago, would need to bring in either Thaci’s Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) or Vetevendosje (Self-Determination, or VV), which led the short-lived government that preceded Hoti’s. Both joining the government is asking too much, as they despise each other. The PDK will be licking its wounds, as the President is its founder and the Speaker is its party secretary, and there are likely other proposed indictees among its leadership. VV would drive a hard bargain but would be a hefty addition to a weak coalition.
If the indictment is confirmed in July, President Thaci will need to resign–in dignity–and commit to go to The Hague to defend himself. There is ample precedent for this: former Prime Minister Haradinaj resigned twice to defend himself in The Hague, successfully. The parliament will then need to elect a new chief of state, or risk new elections within 45 days. A distinguished, uncompromised, and unpolitical candidate, comparable to former President Atifete Jahjaga, is the right direction. Kosovo has an ample supply of well-qualified people, especially women. Few of them can be accused of war crimes and many are unsullied by corruption and other malfeasance.
A new election would likely bring VV back to power with stronger representation in parliament than it had the last time around, when it came in first by a smidgen. But the time and political competition required for an election would leave Kosovo adrift at a crucial moment. A weakened state would be vulnerable to all sorts of shenanigans, by Europeans, Americans, Russians and others. It would be far better if VV’s obvious political strength could be recognized without repeating the October 2019 contest.
With a new president and a widened government, Kosovo needs first and foremost to stabilize itself, ending all attacks on Serbs and Serb property as well as the internecine quarreling within its majority Albanian population, which makes Kosovo look ungovernable. Attacks on Serbs give Belgrade the ammunition it needs to argue that the ethnic groups need to be separated and Serb-occupied territory transferred to Serbia as well as much of the Serb population south of the Ibar river. Such a land/people transfer is an enormous threat to Kosovo as an independent and sovereign state, as it would remove a big obstacle to union with Albania: the Serb population.
The cancelled Washington summit was ill-conceived and no loss to anyone. But Kosovo and Serbia both need to improve their political and economic relations. The EU-run dialogue has been without significant results since 2013, but Brussels still holds the key incentives to make normalization between the two countries a reality, including the promise of Kosovo recognition by the five nonrecognizing EU states. The proper US role is one of support for the EU, which is admittedly difficult right now because the Trump Administration dislikes both Europe and the Union. It would be much easier in a Biden Administration, which is starting to look likely as Covid-19 resurges across red states in the south and west.
But that question won’t be resolved until November 3. Right now the power balance in the Balkans is what counts. Serbia is already strong. Strengthening the Kosovo state is a prerequisite for a better outcome.
Kosovo needs to hedge
Kosovo prides itself on being the most pro-American country on earth. I don’t really know if it is true. Pew does not include Kosovo in its polling. There Vietnam holds the top position. But it is only 84% favorable to the US. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kosovo could equal or beat that.
There are good reasons for Kosovo’s pro-American lean. More than 90% of the population is Albanian. Most of them credit the United States for forcing Serbian Slobodan Milosevic strongman out of Kosovo in 1999. Even the Serbs and other minorities in Kosovo have some reason to be positive about the US, since NATO troops have protected them for more than 20 years. Whether they would admit it however is another question, since Serbia’s attitude toward the US is equivocal at best.
This week it was revealed that an American prosecutor at the Kosovo Specialist Chambers in The Hague has filed charges against Kosovo President Thaci, former Assembly Speaker Veseli, and eight others. It is inconceivable that the American envoy handling Kosovo and Serbia, Richard Grenell, was not informed in advance. He did nothing to stop the revelation, which was a break with the court’s normal procedure, and quickly welcomed Thaci’s decision not to come to Washington for talks with Serbian President Vucic this weekend.
I have nothing against charges for war crimes and crimes against humanity, provided there is sufficient evidence that can be presented in court. If confirmed by one of the judges, the President, Veseli, and the other indictees should resign and go to The Hague to defend themselves, as former Prime Minister Haradinaj has done (several times).
But this incident confirms what I have been telling my Kosovar colleagues for over a year: to diversify their sources of support. The United States is simply no long a reliable advocate of the statehood, independence, and sovereignty of Kosovo. The Trump Administration has for some time leaned in Serbia’s direction on major issues: land and people swaps, tariffs Kosovo levied in retaliation for Serbia’s derecognition campaign, and the leadership of Kosovo’s government, which was changed as the result of American pressure.
The new prime minister, Avdullah Hoti, has also cancelled his appearance in Washington. This is understandable. He has only a one vote margin in the parliament and owes his premiership to President Thaci, who blocked new elections after the previous government fell to a no-confidence vote. Hoti has outlined a clear and I would say compelling platform for the talks with Belgrade, but he is not a political heavyweight and needs support from two-thirds of the parliament for anything he agrees with Serbia. Going to Washington would have left him exposed at home during a crucial juncture in Kosovo politics.
The hour is late, but I believe that Kosovo needs to find some new friends. Germany is a vital supporter, not only because of its weight within the EU but also because it has been unalterably opposed to the land and people swaps the Americans have been open to. Japan, seeing China court Serbia, has upped its game with Kosovo. That’s good.
But most of all Kosovo needs to crack the code on getting the European countries that do not recognize its sovereignty to change their minds. The European Union negotiator for the Balkans, Miroslav Lajcak, promised repeatedly that Slovakia would recognize Kosovo while he was that country’s Foreign Minister. The time has come for him to deliver. EU High Representative Borrell, formerly Foreign Minister of the cardinal non-recognizer, Spain, should also be told that the time has come for Madrid to realize that recognition of Kosovo would in no way undermine Spain’s position on Catalonia, unless Madrid regards itself as analogous to Milosevic’s Belgrade.
If Donald Trump goes down to already likely defeat in November, Kosovo can expect the Biden Administration to return to the traditional American support for its statehood, sovereignty, and independence. But Kosovo will still be a small country in a world increasingly dominated by geopolitics and geoeconomics. The Americans may be more supportive under Biden, but they will also have their hands full with other issues. Bandwagoning with the US paid dividends once upon a time, but sovereign and independent states don’t need to stay in love. Kosovo should hedge its bets.
Kosovo is in trouble
The Kosovo Specialist Chambers (KSC) and Specialist Prosecutor’s Office (SPO) charged with ensuring accountability for war crimes and crimes against humanity in the aftermath of the 1999 NATO/Yugoslavia war announced today that the prosecutor on April 24 charged President Thaci and former Speaker of the parliament Veseli, who is now the head of the political party Thaci founded. The announcement added:
The Indictment is only an accusation. It is the result of a lengthy investigation and reflects the SPO’s determination that it can prove all of the charges beyond a reasonable doubt. A KSC Pre-Trial Judge is currently reviewing the Indictment to decide on whether to confirm the charges.
The Prosecutor is said to have found it necessary to make the charges public because of “efforts by Hashim Thaci and Kadri Veseli to obstruct and undermine the work of the KSC.”
This surprised me. First, because I have doubted that sufficient evidence still exists even to bring charges, never mind convict. Second, because it comes just days before Pristina and Belgrade are supposed to send delegations to Washington for talks sponsored by the Trump Administration. The SPO is a Trump-named American. I suppose someone may have thought publicizing this secret indictment would bring pressure to bear on Thaci, but it is hard to picture him coming to DC with this indictment pending.
In principle, the talks could proceed anyway, as both the Constitutional Court and the Kosovo Assembly have decided that the responsibility for them lies with the government headed by Avdullah Hoti, not with the President. It may test whether the Prime Minister can exercise independent authority, but it will necessarily put him at considerable political risk. If he appears in Washington, he will be criticized at home and at an enormous disadvantage diplomatically.
It is also a test of Thaci and Veseli. If confirmed by a KSC judge, they should both resign their positions and go to The Hague to defend themselves, as former Prime Minister Haradinaj has done several times. Their resignations would make big waves in Kosovo politics. The Assembly would need to replace Thaci, which would be a big challenge in the aftermath of the indictment. Replacing the head of a political party would be far less controversial, but still consequential. Would the PDK (Democratic Party of Kosovo) respect its Kosovo Liberation Army heritage, or move beyond it to choose someone less connected to the armed rebellion against Serbia?
If Thaci and Veseli do not resign, Kosovo will face other challenges. Neither Europe nor America will be interested in meeting with or helping politicians under indictment. The result will be international isolation. The political response inside Kosovo will be defiance. It is hard to picture anything positive coming of that kind of confrontation. Prospects for international investment, cooperation with NATO, visa-free travel in the EU, and other aspirations will be dashed.
Belgrade of course will be pleased with the indictment, both because it has sought justice for crimes against Serbs in the aftermath of the war and because it will give Serbia a leg up in any negotiations with Europe and the US. Belgrade may try to reopen the question of territorial compromise with Kosovo, claiming that the indictment proves Serbs should not be expected to live in a country dominated by criminal enemies.
To add insult to injury, the strongest supporter of Kosovo in the US Congress, chair of the House International Relations Committee Eliot Engel, was soundly defeated yesterday in a Democratic Party primary in New York City. He will speak for himself, but I won’t be surprised if Engel calls for resignations before he leaves office in January.
So the indictment is not only a personal question for Thaci and Veseli. It is an institutional and international one as well. Kosovo is in trouble.