Tag: United States
No one else
I’ve been wrong a lot about American politics, but I’m going to hazard one more prediction: President Trump is hurting his own re-election chances by urging earlier-than-justified reopening of the US economy. There is already a surge in Covid-19 cases in “heartland” (i.e. non-coastal, non-metropolitan) areas. He is losing support even among evangelicals. The epidemic is going to get a lot worse. Rural areas and white Evangelicals are Trump country.
The situation in “swing” states is also precarious for Trump. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan–the three states whose narrow margins brought him victory in the Electoral College in 2016–all have Democratic governors who are winning plaudits for their deliberate approach to reopening.
The overall picture is also grim for Trump. By August, close to 150,000 Americans will have died of Covid-19. If each of them has 100 relatives and friends of voting age, that is 15 million people with good reasons to vote against Trump. Thirty million Americans have filed unemployment claims, and more millions have lost their jobs but aren’t eligible for unemployment.
The Conference Board outlook for the economy varies from bad to miserable:
Our friends there have pretty much given up hope for the V-shaped recovery and are betting now on the U-shape, which would give Trump some bragging points during the fall campaign. He could continue to claim, as he has already, that we are on the way to recovery. But I suspect the early reopenings in states that have not met the Federal government criteria will make the W-shape, or something like it, more likely. There are no campaign-time bragging rights at all in that instance.
Trump will blame it all on China, claim Obama didn’t prepare properly, say the CDC failed to produce good tests, and assert that he acted early and decisively. There are elements of truth in all those allegations. Chinese local officials did try to ignore the initial outbreak and Beijing has not been as forthcoming as it should be. Obama did prepare, including a playbook handed to the Trump transition team, but it prioritized preparations for biological warfare over an epidemic. CDC did fail in designing its first tests. Trump blocked Chinese from entering the US early, but then did nothing for weeks and continued to allow American citizens to return home from China and Europe without proper testing and tracking.
None of that really matters, because the Trump Administration had adequate warning (even beginning in December), failed for three years in office to prepare while dismantling Obama-era programs intended to give early warning, and then dawdled for months doing almost nothing to make tests available, supply personal protective equipment to health workers, or counter the spread of the virus.
The buck should stop in the Oval Office. President Trump’s hope that the virus would just disappear, or more likely that he could convince people to ignore the virus and the fatalities is has caused, is the root cause of the American Covid-19 disaster. It has also wrecked the decently growing economy the present Administration inherited from Obama. No one else is to blame but Donald Trump. He should be held responsible November 3.
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Peace Picks| May 4- May 9
- CSIS Debate Series: Do Human Rights Protections Advance Counter-terrorism Objectives | May 4, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | CSIS | Register Here
Does democracy foster economic growth? Do human rights protections advance counterterrorism objectives? Does great power competition hurt or empower the continent? Does the U.S. even need a foreign policy for sub-Saharan Africa? Since the 1990s, there generally has been consensus about U.S. priorities and policies toward the region. While continuity has its merits, it also acts as a brake on creativity, innovation, and new thinking about U.S. interests in sub-Saharan Africa. The CSIS Africa Debate Series offers an opportunity to question and refine policy objectives to meet a changing political landscape.
Speakers:
Rashid Abdi: Former Project Director, Horn of Africa, International Crisis Group
Dr. Naunihal Singh: Assistant Professor of National Security, US Naval War College
Colonel (ret.) Chris Wyatt: Director of African Studies, US Army War College
Karen Allen: Senior Research Advisor, Institute for Security Studies (ISS); Former Foreign Correspondent, BBC News
Judd Devermont: Director, Africa Program
- Webinar-Disinformation pandemic: Russian and Chinese information operations in the COVID-19 era| May 5, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | AEI | Register Here
Was the COVID-19 virus produced in the US? Was it created by the US Army? So Moscow and Beijing would have you believe.
Russia and China aggressively manipulate perceptions to achieve their own aims. Their increasingly aggressive information campaigns are converging in method and narrative. What can the US and its allies — and the average citizen — do to inoculate against these disinformation viruses?
Speakers:
Frederick W. Kagan: Resident Scholar; Director, Critical Threats Project
Dan Blumenthal: Director, Asian Studies; Resident Fellow
Zack Cooper: Research Fellow
- COVID-19, Oil Prices, and Prospects for Iran-GCC Relations | May 6, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 AM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The concurrent crises of COVID-19 and tumbling oil prices are deeply felt across the Gulf region. The U.S.-led sanctions, already a huge burden on Iran’s economy, massively limit Tehran’s foreign trade options and export revenue as the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbates the country’s economic troubles. On the other hand, the energy-exporting states of the Gulf Cooperation Council are facing a steep decline in oil and gas export revenues for the foreseeable future. These economic shocks coincide with a sharp and a financially expensive competition for influence across the Middle East.
How might the present deteriorating economic realities impact the geopolitical calculations of Iran, the GCC states, and U.S. interests in the Gulf region? Will the economic downturn shape the willingness of the GCC states to stand with the Trump administration in confronting Tehran leading up to the US elections in November? Is there any opportunity for Iran and the GCC states to consider a reset in relations that have been contentious since 1979. MEI is pleased to host a panel to discuss these questions and more.
Speakers:
Mohammed Baharoon: Director general, B’huth
Dina Esfandiary: Fellow, The Century Foundation
Bilal Saab: Senior fellow and director, Defense and Security program, MEI
Alex Vatanka (Moderator): Senior fellow and director, Iran program, MEI
- Analyzing the Impact of the “Maximum Pressure” Campaign on Iran | May 6, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
The Islamic Republic of Iran is in the midst of a severe political and economic crisis brought on by the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign and worsened by the coronavirus outbreak. The regime has called for Washington to lift U.S. sanctions on humanitarian grounds, and significant voices, including from previous administrations, have called for the easing of sanctions on the basis of compassion.
However, the crisis presents the United States with opportunities to increase the pressure not only on the regime, but also on its proxies—Hezbollah first among them. What is the range of policy options toward Iran and Hezbollah that Washington faces? What is the goal of maximum pressure as currently implemented? Should the Trump administration stay the course or consider refining the policy?
Speakers:
David Asher: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Michael Doran: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Scott Modell: Managing Director, Rapidan Energy Group and former Senior Iran Operations Officer, Central Intelligence Agency
Mohsen Sazegara: President, Research Institute on Contemporary Iran
- Safeguarding Asia’s Most Vulnerable During COVID-19 | May 7, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | The Heritage Foundation | Register Here
COVID-19 has taken the world by a storm, but none are more deeply affected than the world’s most vulnerable. Refugees and the internally displaced, individuals living under authoritarian regimes, and others living in countries with limited healthcare resources are facing, in some cases, life or death situations. While many countries battling their own domestic fight with COVID-19 are tempted to turn inwards, the U.S. as a global leader in the promotion of freedom has a responsibility to galvanize attention and partnership to ensure that the world’s most needy are receiving the assistance they need during the pandemic. Join us to learn about the unique challenges faced by Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh, the impoverished in North Korea, and the marginalized in China.
Speakers:
Daniel Sullivan: Senior Advocate for Human Rights, Refugees International
Kristina Olney: Director of Government Relations, Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation
Jeongmin Kim: Seoul Correspondent, NK News
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Serbia should align
A group of people described to me as “prominent individuals from all walks of life in Serbia” have issued an appeal in the runup to the (remote) EU/Western Balkans Summit meeting on Wednesday:
The tone is muted, but the overall message is clear: democracy is in danger in Serbia, due in part but not only to executive action in response to the Covid-19 epidemic.
In fact democracy was at risk in Serbia well before this year. President Vucic had already accumulated vast power, including over the media and judiciary as well as uncontested control of the executive branch. There has been no effective opposition in parliament for years. Protesters against his rule came from all ends of the political spectrum, liberal and ultra-nationalist, but they had little impact. Any hope they had of winning in elections evaporated when the epidemic caused the polling to be postponed.
As in so many other countries, including my own, the epidemic has aggravated tendencies that already existed in Serbia. In mid-March, President Vucic had harsh words for the lack of EU solidarity with his country and praise for the Chinese, who have been investing more in Serbia than in the rest of Balkans. This was an intensification of his effort to return Serbia from the nominally pro-Western stance he adopted in the last Serbian presidential election in 2017 to a “non-aligned” one in keeping with the Socialist Yugoslav tradition. He had already balanced Serbia’s cooperation with NATO by leaning heavily in Russia’s direction, including by procuring its military equipment and refusing to implement EU-levied (Ukraine-related) sanctions.
Much of the rest of the Western Balkans is choosing an unequivocally Western path for its economic and political development, even if performance often falls short. Bosnia is the exception, but only because its Serb-run Republika Srpska constrains the country from making a serious run at NATO. Montenegro is still struggling with an anti-independence, anti-NATO opposition, but it has joined NATO and its government is clear about its goal of aligning economically and politically with Europe. The same is true in North Macedonia, which likewise has joined NATO after settling its “name” issue with Greece. Kosovo has always been clear about its pro-NATO, pro-EU ambitions, despite the obvious shortfalls in its performance.
Serbia is different for several reasons. The Orthodox connection is stronger than in the other countries of the Balkans, Russophilia and ethnic nationalism are dominant sentiments in the still unreconstructed right wing of its politics, and Belgrade is the successor state to Socialist Yugoslavia in much more than the legal sense. Some Serbs are nostalgic for the unaligned Yugoslav role, which they believe brought goodies from both East and West. Others just like the familiarity of the Slav-dominated East.
No one should begrudge Serbia the benefits of Russian and Chinese investment. Belgrade needs every dinar it can get for its moribund economy. Germany does a lot of business with Russia too, but has nevertheless remained a leader in the liberal democratic world.
But it is high time the EU makes clear that the path to accession will not be open unless Serbia aligns itself economically and politically with Western standards, however much it enjoys Russian and Chinese cash. It is far from that ideal today. That is the significance of the pre-Summit appeal. Brussels and the EU national capitals need to send a strong message to Serbia: you are not getting into our club unless you meet entry requirements, in particular the Copenhagen criteria:
Membership requires that candidate country has achieved stability of institutions guaranteeing democracy, the rule of law, human rights, respect for and protection of minorities, the existence of a functioning market economy as well as the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the Union. Membership presupposes the candidate’s ability to take on the obligations of membership including adherence to the aims of political, economic and monetary union.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/enlargement/ec/cop_en.htm
Sad to say, the Europeans can expect no support for now from the US in the effort to turn Serbia into a viable accession candidate. Washington is hostile to the EU, uninterested in promoting democracy except in adversary states, and cares only about quid pro quo rather than international norms or maintaining alliance relationships.
So yes, the EU/Western Balkans Summit should send a message not only about solidarity in the face of Covid-19, but also about maintaining European standards and requiring adherence to them by countries that seek membership. An anocratic Serbia is not one that can accede to the EU. Vucic should be told to align, or find Serbia lagging in the regatta for EU membership.
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National disgrace
The American response to the Covid-19 is a well-documented national disgrace. Warned early, President Trump and his Administration minimized the risks, delayed acting, and failed to mount the effort to produce protective equipment and testing required to get the country safely back to work. Encouraged by the President, states that have never taken sufficient social distancing measures are now “opening up,” which will guarantee new infections and delay further a return to normality. In addition, the President has been encouraging people to try unproven and dangerous remedies, including internal use of intense light and disinfectant.
Incompetence at this level is hard to come by, but the Administration is not so dumb when it comes to something it cares about. Republicans have quietly ensured that the legislation intended to help the country meet the Covid-19 economic challenge includes massive tax breaks for the very rich, even as they worry loudly about how $600 per week in unemployment payments might discourage the poor from working. It will take months to discover all the gimmicks they’ve written into the tax code.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world is coping fairly well. Even Italy and Spain, which had big early outbreaks, are seeing their curves flatten and turn downwards. Some countries like Greece, Turkey, and Sweden are seeing a resurgence, but most seem to have things under reasonably good control. In much of the Middle East and Africa, we’ll likely never know the number of cases and deaths because of lack of ability to trace and count them. What we’ll see is an uptick in mortality due to unknown causes.
Even in the US, there is reason to believe that we are undercounting. The total will likely fall in the 70-100,000 range, a death count that should make Americans ashamed. The information, the science, and the know-how were all available in January, February, and March, when the President dithered and tried to minimize the epidemic. The result is a shocking rise in the death toll to over 2000 per day:
The economic toll is likely to be just as devastating. Conference Board scenarios include losses of between 3.6 and 7.4% for the year:
That would make the downturn sharper, though perhaps shorter, than 2008. Even so, the economy would not be back to its third quarter 2019 level before the end of this year.
The political implications are not good for Donald Trump. He has been weakening in key battleground states. The states that followed the President’s push for reopening will suffer second waves of infection, possibly just before the US election. We can hope a recovery will be in progress by November, but the economic losses will still be all too evident. The losses of life will also still be hurting: more than half a million people will by the time of the election likely have a family member who has died of Covid-19.
Donald Trump has made himself the personification of government reaction to the epidemic, by appearing almost every day on TV to misinform the public. Apparently convinced that his mendacious performance was a mistake, he is now abandoning the habit. But he should still be held accountable for the damage and disgrace he has brought on the country. It’s not WHO, it’s not the Chinese, it’s not the Democrats: Donald Trump and no one else is to blame for the failure of the US to confront Covid-19 with the many tools at its disposal. This disaster is his, and his alone.
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The Arab world is vulnerable
The Arab world is facing a global coronavirus recession and the associated oil demand shock. On April 22, the Arab Center Washington DC hosted a panel discussion on “The Oil Market and the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the Arab World.” The discussion featured three speakers:
Garbis Iradian: Chief Economist for Middle East and North Africa, Institute of International Finance
Bessma Momani: Interim Assistant Vice-President of International Relations and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo
Khalil E. Jahshan: Executive Director, Arab Center Washington DC, moderated
The oil market and Arab states
Iradian stated that Russia and Saudi Arabia have reached an agreement to cut crude oil production by 9.7 million barrels, but this agreement will not be enacted until May. West Texas Intermediate has crashed into negative territory. More than sufficient oil supply and limited storage capacity is causing oil companies to give out oil for free. Iradian expected oil prices for the second quarter of this year to bottom around $30. The prices for the second half of this year will depend on recovery of global economy, especially from the COVID-19 pandemic. But prices will remain low in the long-term.
Iradian mentioned that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait could cope with low oil prices for at least 2-3 years because their ratio of public debt to GDP is modest. These countries have large financial buffers, including official reserves and sovereign wealth funds that can finance their current deficits.
Algeria, Oman, Bahrain, and Iraq, however, are encountering greater risks. Oman’s and Bahrain’s ratio of public debt to their GDP is high. Neither has sufficient official reserves and sovereign wealth funds, so they are cutting spending and diversifying their economies. Low oil prices will create more incentives for some oil exporters to reform. Both Algeria and Iraq have provided stimulus packages to lend to SMEs at concessional terms.
Oil importers, such as Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Lebanon, and Sudan could benefit a little from low oil prices. The economic contraction, however, will have a negative impact on them due to the decrease in tourism, remittances from the GCC, and investment.
A grim outlook
Momani is pessimistic about the current global liquidity crisis. The Middle East depends on multilateral organizations and official development assistance from the West. The West, however, doesn’t have the incentive to give financial resources to the Middle East. Although the Arab states have reserves, they will slowly dry up because the global economy will not recover in the short-term.
Momani believes that this is a semi-permanent situation that will induce restructuring in every sector. The decline in oil prices is problematic to many Arab states as they are dependent on oil exports. In Iraq, the cost production of crude oil is $5/barrel, and in Saudi Arabia the cost production is $10-15/ barrel. If low oil prices persist, it will lead to revenue shortfalls. Some Gulf states intend to diversify their economies, but tourism, airlines, and big sports events are all at a standstill.
Momani listed several more economic challenges that the Gulf faces:
- Most states without enormous reserves have low tax bases.
- The lack of social safety net means public health services are inequitably distributed between the rich and the masses.
- Guest workers in the Gulf face both unemployment and discrimination.
- The intergenerational family structure prevents Middle Eastern families from combating COVID-19 effectively.
- Universities in the Gulf, most of which are subsidized by Gulf states, are facing difficulties.
- The UAE, which depends on port infrastructure, will come to a standstill as the movement of goods and services between China and the Middle East halts.
- Oil exporters depend on US dollars but cannot print them, they are hostage to the US Federal Reserve and the Trump administration.
- The crisis could induce the collapse of small entrepreneurial sectors.
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CCP’s challenges in COVID-19
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is using the COVID-19 pandemic as an opportunity to expand its influence around the world. On April 17, Hudson Institute hosted a panel discussion on “Meeting the Challenge of the Chinese Communist Party During and After COVID-19.” The discussion featured four speakers:
Eric Brown: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Patrick Cronin: Asia-Pacific Security Chair and Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Lewis Libby: Senior Vice President, Hudson Institute, moderated
Current Context
Lee said that the CCP is promoting its decisive and effective response in contrast to America’s chaotic efforts. The masks, ventilators, and doctors that China has sent around the world are meant to show that China is saving the world, while democracy in the US is floundering. He believes that China will return to a powerful position because of its strong national capabilities.
One of the challenges that China is encountering, however, is the lockdown in neighboring states, which prevents them from absorbing China’s excess supplies. In the long term, China needs continued access to external markets, capital, and innovation. Lee points out that Europe is considering toughening its industrial polices against China.
Brown indicated that the US thought cooperation with China throughout the 1990s would let the CCP relinquish some control. The CCP, however, was not prepared for further liberalization. After the 2008 financial crisis, the party re-asserted more control over economic, political, and ideological discussions. President Xi attempted to turn China against the US, causing deterioration in US-China relations and leading to limited market access.
Adding that the pandemic could trigger a change in CCP tactics because the criticism of the one-party system has deepened, Brown noted that people have been thinking about a fundamental change in the CCP regime. The regime, hence, could redouble its police state buildup and become more aggressive.
Is China winning?
Cronin believes that the pandemic crisis should neither lead us to count America out, nor assume China’s peaceful rise, for three reasons:
- US retrenchment from the Pacific is not irreparable. It will, however, accelerate the disentanglement of US supply chains and high-tech innovation sources. Meanwhile, China is not filling the gap due to its internal troubles and its poor track record of trust and transparency.
- The CCP is adaptable and agile, characteristics the US has underestimated. The Covid-19 crisis, nevertheless, could be a Chernobyl moment for Xi’s leadership.
- The US and its allies are in a competition with China. Their strategies can include both preventing the rise of the hegemon and finding cooperation based on reciprocity in contrast to China’s narratives.
What can the US do?
Lee and Brown both agreed that the US can either restrict China’s access to the international market or block its transactions in US dollars. The US also needs to coordinate with Europe. Additionally, American universities should restrict Chinese students’ participation in joint projects with strategic implications. Brown added that the pandemic forces US political leaders to face the choice between national security and international financial markets. The best arrangement should cover both national security concerns and economic concerns.
Here’s the video for this panel discussion:
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