Tag: United States

Yesterday’s cold, today’s warmth

Kosovo’s Ambassador to the United States, Vlora Citaku, has published this personal reflection on her country’s 12th birthday on her Facebook page (republished here with her concurrence):

It was a cold February and I had a secret.

I distinctly remember that cold February day. All of us remember it. It was frigid, but the heat in the atmosphere could already be felt for a few days. I was even more tense than the air itself, because I had a secret that I could not share with anyone. Not even my closest family members.

I was leading part of the processes that were related to the Declaration of Independence but no one was to know about these processes. The press conference for international media had to be prepared, but no one was to know what the conference was being called for. The security preparations had to be made, but not even the police were to know what they would be protecting, and when they would be protecting it.

I had a big secret in my heart, and sometimes I would chuckle to myself because of the news that warmed my heart. The “Newborn” monument was being prepared, but no one was to know when we would give birth to the newborn.

We had reason to be joyful, and even more reason to be prepared for the worst. Serbia was ruled by a nationalist with a nefarious agenda. There were warnings of possible violence and electricity shutdowns. The verbal aggression had reached its peak.

Nonetheless, it was clear that we would not prolong the process since every other avenue, from the negotiations in Vienna to the visits of the troika (Ishinger, Wisner, and Borcan Haracenko) had been exhausted. The enemies of independence had nowhere left to run. There will be independence – said the wise [former Finnish] President Ahtisaari – but it will be supervised until it is proven that minorities and the whole society will be better off and have more power because of the creation of the state, not less.

As an MP, I knew that I would be one of the elected representatives of the people (not the provisional self-governance institutions) who would declare independence. We would complete the statehood of our nation. The Declaration of Independence had to be written in secret, with calligraphy that was noticeably rushed at the end, because the entire population of Kosovo was in a rush. We could not withstand another minute of
delay for that which was pursued for an entire century.

Since the dissolution of the Ottoman Empire, since the time of Isa Boletini, since the time of my ancestor Shote Galica, since the time of Shaban Polluza, since the time of the partizans who fought Nazism but were betrayed by the Communist Party. Since the time of the establishment of the University of Prishtina, since the time of dissidents, incarcerations, and false hopes. Since my time as a member of the “generation of the
republic” who were left without schools, poisoned, and ignored by Europe.

We could not withstand another minuted, since the time of our armed resistance, the time of the soldiers whom I followed step by step as a translator for the largest international media, the time when we faced genocide against civilians perpetrated by the century-old occupier.

It was cold on that February day, colder than ever. But I had a secret in my heart that warmed my soul.
To be completely frank, I cried just as much as I laughed on that day. Precisely because of the life that we lived, the sacrifice of my mother and father, the sacrifice of my friends. The sacrifice of the elders and that of the most vulnerable.

These are the feelings that I remember today, 12 years later. Though climate change has not doubt made February warmer and snowless, my feelings resurface just the same when I remember how we became a country and how steep a price we paid for our right to exist as such. A century of pain.

However, as the saying goes – no pain, no gain.

And gain we did, much more than many other oppressed peoples. We won our Declaration of Independence, and the declaration was recognized by the world’s biggest democracies.

It was recognized with a new map in an elementary school by Sarkozy of France, the France of the revolution that brought about human rights as a fundamental concept. It was recognized by the Italy of humanist renaissance that placed the human at the center of the universe. It was recognized by Germany, the global example of rebirth after the catastrophe of the Second World War. It was recognized by the United Kingdom. And it
was recognized by the United States of America, to whom we will always be indebted.

A few years ago, an American diplomat confessed to me that it was not only Hashim Thaci who had to be convinced to delay the declaration of independence by a few months, from the end of 2007 to 2008. His resistance was great, but it was matched by that of President Bush who told his diplomats “I have promised independence to a people, and independence I will deliver”.

Twelve years later I reckon, many things could have been done better. The expectations of people that we would instantly become Switzerland, and everything would improve, that we would have jobs and wealth, were broken by the burdens of transition.

However, the same burdens broke many peoples across all of Eastern Europe after the fall of communism. Unfortunately, not rarely, and even criminally, not everyone had the same opportunities for growth in our new country. The solidarity, love, and boundless happiness we had for each other did not last forever.

Nevertheless, love must not be replaced by hatred. Independence is final, and will never be called into question. I am saddened to hear when some still doubt this. When some deny it. When they disrespect our flag. But today, I will not write for them.

It was cold on February 17th, 2008. But it was also the warmest day in a century.

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Making retreat sound good

The United States is getting ready to retreat from Afghanistan. After more than 19 years of war following the 9/11 Al Qaeda attacks, Washington has reached an agreement for a seven-day lull in attacks (not a formal ceasefire), after which the Taliban will negotiate a broader peace with Afghanistan government officials supposedly acting in their personal capacities. The US will reduce its presence from 13,000 troops to below 9,000 within months, whether or not the Afghans reach an agreement. Other arrangements remain secret but presumably include some sort of Taliban pledge not to provide safe haven to international terrorists as well as commitments on human rights, though these are likely to be vague, unenforceable, and perhaps worthless.

What this amounts to is US retreat from a theater in which more than about 2500 American military have lost their lives, and something like 10 times that number have been wounded. President Trump will vaunt this as fulfilling his campaign promise to end endless wars, but a substantial number of troops will remain at risk. The Afghanistan government may survive in Kabul, but the Taliban already control about 18% of its districts and contest another 48%:

FDD Long War Journal: https://www.longwarjournal.org/mapping-taliban-control-in-afghanistan

US withdrawal and refocus on counterterrorism will likely increase those percentages, unless the Afghan security forces demonstrate much greater capability than they have to date.

At this point, there isn’t much of an alternative. The American public, pliable as it is on use of force in a crisis, doesn’t want recommitment to the fight in Afghanistan. President Trump has long been impatient with the war there. The Democrats don’t like it either. It has been clear since last fall’s abortive agreement, which Trump cancelled at the last minute due to renewed violence, that the American envoy, Zal Khalilzad, had no mandate or desire to press the Taliban for more than a decent exit and commitment to staving off Al Qaeda and the Islamic State.

The Taliban see them at least in part as rivals for establishing Islamic governance, so there may be some reason to hope that they won’t quickly provide the kind of safe haven that Osama bin Laden enjoyed in the 1990s. Taliban ambitions mainly focus on restoring the Islamic Emirate inside Afghanistan, not projecting power beyond or provoking further intervention. They may even be prepared to fight the more internationally minded jihadis, if only to keep the Americans from renewed activity.

Afghanistan’s President Ghani, however, will have a lot to worry about once the Americans have drawn down. New York and Washington will not be at immediate risk, but Kabul will be. The population there may not want the Taliban to return, but history suggests the government has a hard time defending itself from insurgents in the countryside. Factiousness is endemic in Afghanistan. Ghani is not a man who compromises readily, and he wrote the book on Western-style statebuilding: Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World. Protecting the human rights of women, minorities, and Afghans committed to real democracy is going to be a tall order.

This is not the first of Trump’s retreats. He settled for little in the renegotiation of NAFTA, caved on the tariff war with the Chinese, backed off denuclearization of North Korea, all but abandoned the opposition to President Maduro in Venezuela, and floated a peace plan for Israel and Palestine that dropped like a stone. While he remains verbally belligerent to Iran, he thankfully seems to have given up on the drive to war. He has little to nothing to show for his belligerence and bravado on the world stage, where he is regarded more as buffoon than champion, except in Israel and Russia.

Being able to claim that he has ended the long war in Afghanistan will stand Trump in good stead with those who know nothing about Afghanistan during the coming election campaign. The flim-flam man will make a necessary retreat sound good.

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Stevenson’s army, February 13

Senate likely votes today on Sen. Kaine’s Iran war powers measure. Should pass, sure to be vetoed.
– A pro foreign aid group [yes, there is one] has its summary of the international affairs budget proposals by the administration.
– In our topic on the media and interest groups, we read a section from Dan Drezner’s book, The Idea Industry, where he raises concerns about foreign funders .of US think tanks. There’s a new report on that topic, which Drezner evaluates.
– In that same topic, I plan to add a new reading from Ezra Klein, who has a fine new book explaining why US politics has become so polarized. Here’s a review, telling some of its ideas.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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Realism redefined

Different from previous plans, Trump’s Middle East Peace Plan addresses key issues like borders, Jerusalem, settlements, and refugees. Although the plan has enraged the Palestinians , it has received a much more favorable reception from many states than experts predicted, such as Europe and the Middle East. Without a Palestinian partner, is the plan destined, as its critics argue, to fail? Or will it, as its supporters claim, reshape the conflict in significant, beneficial, and lasting ways?

On February 11, the Hudson Institute hosted a panel discussion on the topic of “President Trump’s Plan for Peace in the Middle East.” The discussion featured two speakers: Michael Doran and Jon Lerner. Both serve as senior fellows at the Hudson Institute.

Previous plans vs Trump’s

Lerner and Doran noted that Trump’s plan addresses all final status topics in detail, including Jerusalem, settlement, borders, and right to return, while previous plans left out these issues. Lerner believes that Trump’s plan accepts the reality, contrary to previous plans that sought to change reality on the ground. This plan guarantees Israel’s control over a unified Jerusalem rather than dividing the city. Since it is impossible for Israelis to uproot settlements from the West Bank, Trump legalizes Israeli settlements. Although this plan is a setback for Palestinians, it creates an independent Palestinian state with a capital, grants economic support to Palestinians, allows Palestinians access to Israeli ports, and proposes a tunnel connecting the West Bank and Gaza.

Bilateral or trilateral?

Because most Arab states have more concerns other than than the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, they didn’t offer united supports to pressure Israel into concessions, Lerner says. Due to the lack of support, Palestine should consider engaging with the US and Israel. Lerner predicts that,

  • If the Palestinian were to engage in negotiations but didn’t accept the plan, they would receive a receptive audience, which could force Israel to stop its annexation.
  • If the Palestinians don’t engage in negotiations, which is likely, Israel will keep moving forward and weaken the Palestinians further.

Lerner thinks the Palestinian made a wrong choice to cut all dialogue with the US after Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital in 2017. Instead, the Palestinians should have rejected Trump’s decision and worked with him on a plan until they achieved what they want. Lerner urges the Palestinian to engage in negotiations, or they will be more likely to lose ground.

US interests

Doran argues that the US has more issues in the region nowadays and needs to cooperate with its allies. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has weakened its Israeli ally, especially after Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza failed to bring stability. If the US forced Israel out of the West Bank and handed its control to Abbas, he would not have the capability to maintain control and fend off Hamas. Jordanian security could not be guaranteed either. Lerner added that the US avoided the unproductive perception of even-handedness with allies on one side, and sympathy towards Palestinians on the other. Trump’s plan is rooted in realism and the administration’s support for allies.

Lerner pointed out that irrespective of who wins the presidential election in November, the content of this plan has changed political dynamics in both Israel and the US. It will be hard for the Israeli government to accept a less generous plan than Trump’s in the future. It will also be difficult for future US administrations to propose any plan more like previous plans and less like Trump’s plan.

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No surprise

Attorney General Barr’s decision to overrule prosecutors who had asked for a 7-9 year sentence for one of President Trump’s cronies should be no surprise. Barr is a vigorous advocate of a unitary executive, which means he believes the President has complete authority over the entire executive branch and can do as he likes

The President Barr serves is someone who likes to protect his friends and supporters, regardless of their legal infractions. He has pardoned an Arizona sheriff convicted of criminal contempt of court and racial profiling as well as a Special Forces officer convicted of a war crime. He is packing the Federal courts with unqualified toadies. What more do you need to know about President Trump’s respect for the rule of law?

The much-vaunted “independence” of the Justice Department is a tradition, not of particularly long standing. Deference to professional prosecutors has proven politically advantageous to many presidents. It relieves them of the burden of deciding controversial issues and enables them to stay above the fray.

Trump however knows that independent institutions will not put up with his multitudinous lies. He cannot afford to let professionals make decisions that put his friends in prison. They might turn against him.

He prefers to enter the fray and frighten the government’s professionals into submission. An FBI director who won’t agree to protect the President? Fire him. A whistle blower in the National Security Council? Out him. An ambassador in Kiev who is not subservient? Fire her. A much-decorated military officer and another ambassador who testify in Congress when subpoenaed? Punish the former and fire the latter. Intelligence analysts who fail to support the President’s views? Deny their unanimous conclusions about Russian interference in the 2016 US election and praise President Putin’s denials.

The objective here is clear: it is 100% control over the entire executive from top to bottom. That can’t be achieved if there are people who can make decisions independently. So purges are necessary, not just to punish but also to warn those who remain in place that toeing the line is not optional. For every professional fired, many more are intimidated.

The people Trump targets will not be assassinated or even jailed. But they will live the rest of their lives fending off threats from the President’s over-zealous supporters, who can rely on not being prosecuted so long as Trump holds office. Some of the professionals will get book contracts, but most will suffer dramatic declines in income and difficulty finding jobs. The three prosecutors who resigned yesterday to protest the Attorney General’s decision to reverse their recommendation on sentencing will not be getting good assignments at Justice. They’ll likely all soon join the one who quit.

None of this will be apparent to people who get their news on Fox, which will portray the President as the victim of secret cabals, the “deep state,” plotting to unseat him. The Republicans in Congress know what the President is doing is wrong and would vigorously object if he were a Democrat. But their concerns about being “primaried” (challenged in Republican primaries this year) or dissed by the President outweigh their sense of decency. Senator Mitt Romney and Congressman Justin Amash stand alone in protesting Trump’s abuse of power. There is no sign anyone else will join them.

The November 3 election will be judge and jury on President Trump’s claim of complete control over the executive branch and his efforts to protect himself and his friends from punishment for their criminal offenses. Bernie Sanders looks to be the front runner in the Democratic primaries so far, but these are early days. Super Tuesday March 3 will give us a much better indication of who is likely to carry the Democratic standard.

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Stevenson’s army, February 9

– I like and agree with Jennifer Harris and Jake Sullivan’s argument that US strategists need to include domestic and foreign economic policy in their plans.

– Conservative scholar Yuval Levin says Congress has degenerated into a bunch of self-promoters: But Congress has progressively lost its inner life, as all of its deliberative spaces have become performative spaces, everything has become televised and live-streamed, and there is less and less room and time for talking in private. By now, about the only protected spaces left are the leadership offices around midnight as a government shutdown approaches, so it is hardly surprising that this is where and when a great deal of important legislation gets made.
– Adam Gopnik reviews a revisionist book that argues Lincoln was less important than Congress during the Civil War.
-The budget comes out tomorrow. The Hill highlights some of the choices the administration has to make. 
– WSJ lists some of the winners and losers from the US-China trade war.

My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).

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