Tag: United States
No real deal
President Trump’s much-vaunted “deal of the century” landed with a thud today. Conceived and developed without input from the Palestinians, it gives Israel the territory it has sought in Golan, the West Bank, and Jerusalem in exchange for a $50 billion aid package and a supposedly contiguous Palestinian state.
There are lots of ambiguities, which I suppose will be resolved only once we study the 80-page text (not yet on the White House website):
- The President claimed in his announcement that Jerusalem will be undivided but also said there would be a Palestinian capital in East Jerusalem. That doesn’t make sense.
- He also said Palestinian territory would be “doubled,” which by my calculation suggests that at least 10% of the West Bank (and possibly much more) would be taken by Israel without land swaps.
- There would be a four-year period during which Israel would not encroach further on the West Bank, but it is not clear whether this would require prior Palestinian acceptance of the plan, which is not forthcoming.
- The President did not mention the Jordan River valley, but given his claim that Israel’s security would not be even marginally compromised it is likely the idea is for Israel to hold on to it.
- The plan is said to be “conceptual” and will now be elaborated further in a joint committee, which isn’t going to happen as the Palestinians won’t go along.
What happens now? Nothing much. Most of the Arab world seems to have shunned the announcement–the President mentioned only that the Omani, Bahraini, and Emirati (he said Emiratris) were present. That would mean most of the political heavy hitters, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia, stayed away.
The main destinations for this peace plan are the political campaigns of President Trump–whose impeachment trial was ongoing while he made the announcement–and Prime Minister Netanyahu, who today was indicted on corruption charges (specifically fraud, breach of trust, and bribery). They are both hoping to get a bit of political boost out of the White House peace plan, which will likely be forgotten within days.
There is however a broader significance: the playing field has tilted against the West Bank Palestinians in recent years, in part because they have mostly abandoned violence against Israelis and internationals. It would be surprising if no one noticed how their cause has suffered from resorting to nonviolence.
Trump and Netanyahu are trying to supplant the “land for peace” formula that has prevailed in negotiations since 1967. They want “money for peace” instead. It should be no surprise that Trump views the Israeli/Palestinian conflict as requiring a real estate deal for its resolution. But then remember: Trump was no good at real estate and made most of his money franchising his name. Like so many of his deals, this one is a sales gimmick. There is no real deal.
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Trump’s other diplomatic initiative
Veljko Nestorović of ALO! asked questions. I replied (the Serbian version is here):
Q: Following the agreement on the establishment of an airline between Belgrade and Pristina, and the announcement of the establishment and a railway line, does this indicate that the dialogue will be resumed soon?
A. I don’t see how the dialogue can resume before government formation in Pristina. It may be delayed longer than that, because Serbian elections are coming by May. I doubt it is in Kosovo’s interest to negotiate during an election campaign in Serbia.
Q: Who has first to give up, Pristina or Belgrade, to abolish taxes or stop the campaign to withdraw Kosovo’s recognition?
A: Those moves will have to be simultaneous.
Q: Have you changed your mind when it comes to Richard Grenell or have you maintained that his appointment as Special Envoy is bizarre?
A: I’m glad progress has been made on the air link and railroad, despite the limits on use of the air link by people like me who arrive in Kosovo without coming from Serbia. I still think the appointment strange, but I’m glad to give credit where it is due.
Q: In your opinion, is territorial exchange something that is definitely no longer on the table now?
A: It is a zombie idea that wanders the earth, seeking someone who will revive it. I won’t be surprised if it finds someone, but I don’t think it is a good or feasible idea. The main barrier is a fundamental diplomatic principle: reciprocity. Whatever Serbia gets in the north it will need to give the equivalent in the south, and vice versa for Kosovo. I don’t think either capital is ready for that.
Q: Do you think President Trump is anxious to find a quick solution for the Kosovo because of the November election, or does the US election not affect the Pristina-Belgrade dialogue?
A: There is no doubt the President is looking for any kind of success internationally that distracts attention from his impeachment and the trial in the Senate. There are few countries where domestic politics don’t have an impact on foreign policy.
Q: In your opinion, can Belgrade and Pristina come to an agreement, and in your opinion, what should it entail?
A: Yes, I do think an agreement is possible. It will have to entail Serbia’s acceptance in some form of Kosovo’s sovereignty and territorial integrity as well as exchange of diplomatic representatives at the ambassadorial level. It will also need ample provisions for protection of minorities and Serbian cultural and religious sites in Kosovo, with equivalent protection for minorities (including Albanians) in Serbia.
I should have added that there will need to be sweeteners from the international community: progress on EU membership for Serbia, at the very least the visa waiver and I hope candidacy for Kosovo, as well as a substantial economic aid package for both.
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Stevenson’s army, January 28
–Britain won’t ban Huawei.
– Congress may punish such action.
– WSJ says Putin outfoxed US in Venezuela.
– NYT says Russia is outmaneuvering US in Africa, too.
– Israelis report US is building bases in Iraq close to Iran.
-House Democrats warm to resuming earmarks.
– FP calls O’Brien the anti-Bolton.
-Conservative Max Boot says Pompeo is worse than Tillerson.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Honi soit qui mal y pense
President Trump tweeted this morning:
Donald J. Trump@realDonaldTrump · 2hShifty Adam Schiff is a CORRUPT POLITICIAN, and probably a very sick man. He has not paid the price, yet, for what he has done to our Country!
This tweet conveys several messages:
- As the lead House Manager in the impeachment trial, Adam Schiff is doing a great job and making the accused President very nervous.
- Trump is signaling to his followers that Schiff is a legitimate target not only for criticism but also for violence.
- The President himself is a very sick man who has done a lot of damage to the United States–he consistently accuses opponents of doing what he is doing.
Trump has reason to be nervous. A Fox News poll today confirmed a previous CNN result that puts the percentage of Americans favoring his removal from office at 50% or higher. The tide is beginning to turn.
The question is how fast and far it will go. The Senate Republicans are trying to race through the trial without calling witnesses, knowing that any testimony or even documentary evidence would weigh against the President. Senate Majority Leader McConnell wants to complete the process well before the February 4 State of the Union address. The Democrats would prefer to hold the cloud over the President until well after that, though they too have an interest in finishing the trial so that some of their number can campaign in the primaries.
The two-thirds majority required to convict Trump still seems far out of reach. But he would be severely weakened if enough Republicans were to join the Democratic minority to get 50% to vote for removal from office. So far, there is no sign that even one Republican will break ranks, but I wouldn’t necessarily expect them to signal in advance their willingness to buck the President. Once one moves in that direction, a few others may well join.
This week’s effort to distract attention from the impeachment trial will be announcement of the President’s “peace plan” for Israel and the Palestinians. It has no chance of success at all. The Palestinians long ago decided not to talk with the Administration’s envoys, who are intent on giving a green light to annexation of large portions of the West Bank. The Palestinians can expect nothing more than a few economic sweeteners, but no state of their own or equal rights within Israel. The Trump plan is a dead letter, but it serves his domestic political interests to appear for a few days a peacemaker. If nothing else, he can declare to his roaring supporters that he deserves the Nobel Prize.
Meanwhile the Democrats are getting ready for the Iowa caucuses February 3 and the New Hampshire primary February 11. Bernie Sanders is leading in polls, but it still looks as if there will be three or four viable candidacies after New Hampshire. Nevada and South Carolina follow, but it will likely be Super Tuesday March 3, when more than 15 primaries are held, before the situation really clarifies. Trump will no doubt have choice words for whoever is emerging as a potential challenger. Honi soit qui mal y pense
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Syria isn’t over
On October 6 last year President Trump and Turkish President Erdogan had a telephone call that altered US policy in Syria. The White House released a statement that the United States Armed Forces would not support or be involved in the Turkish operation into northern Syria. The US no longer deemed ISIS to have a territorial ‘Caliphate,’ leading the Administration to leave the area. This phone call resulted in the abandonment of a strong US ally, the Kurds in northeastern Syria, to face Turkey alone.
This policy shift served as the foundation of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy policy forum titled The New Status Quo in Northeast Syria: Humanitarian and Security Implications on January 23. The forum was composed of Gonul Tol, Founding Director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkish Studies Program, Wladimir van Wilgenburg, coauthor of the 2019 book, The Kurds of Northern Syria: Governance, Diversity, and Conflicts, and Dana Stroul, Kassen Fellow in The Washington Institute’s Geduld Program on Arab Politics.
SDF still functioning
Van Wilgenburg, who recently returned from a trip into northeastern Syria, utilized this map to illustrate the presence and role of geopolitical actors.
The yellow portion of the map is controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which continue to control significant territory. Having visited Syria post-October, he noted the increase of Russian vehicles on the roads, replacing American trucks. Overall, van Wilgenburg stated that the situation on the ground has not changed tremendously; however, the Kurds are scared of possible upcoming demographic changes due to Turkish plans for the creation of refugee resettlement camps in the region.
Van Wilgenburg emphasized that the biggest problem for the SDF is that they still lack recognition from Damascus and are not official participants in peace talks. The economy is much better than in the areas the Syrian government controls, particularly with regards to electricity and water services. While Assad isn’t willing to make concessions to recognizing SDF, he does understand that without the 80,000+ SDF fighters, there would be a huge vacuum, as Syrian forces are not large enough to maintain the SDF territory. SDF is in a weaker state than it was prior to October, but it is still functioning, as long as the cease-fire holds.
Erdogan is worried about his domestic support
Gonul focused on Erdogan’s foreign policy, which is connected directly to his domestic policies. While Turkey’s hope was to create a Turkey-controlled safe zone stretching all the way to the Iraqi border with the capacity to host 1-2 million Syrian refugees, that has not happened. The pocket of Turkish controlled-area is significantly smaller than Erdogan’s intentions.
According to Gonul, Erdogan has not been speaking about Syria as much on local news because the topic is closely tied to domestic Turkish politics and his own status. Turkey is hosting close to 4 million refugees from Syria. This weakens Erdogan, as anti-Kurdish sentiment is strong and blames Erdogan for allowing so many refugees in.
Turkish Kurds have captured a historic 13% of the vote and deprived Erdogan a parliamentary majority. With the Kurds supporting the Turkish opposition, President Erdogan lost local elections in March. Erdogan is trying to marginalize and criminalize the Kurdish opposition. Gonul suggested that Erdogan’s failure to meet his goals in Syria has led to his shift of attention to Libya.
Turkey has also not delivered on capturing Idlib, where there are tensions between Ankara and Moscow. Despite their fragile relationship, Erdogan will not act in Syria without a Russian “green light.” Between tensions with Russia and the United States, Turkey is squeezed in Syria. Gonul does not believe Erdogan will defy the United States in Syria, as the threat of sanctions could strain the already weak Turkish economy.
Why the US Government should care about Syria
Stroul brought the conversation to a more global and US-centric arena, highlighting the core findings from the Syria Study Group report in 2019. She emphasized that Syria is of interest to the US for multiple reasons, but mainly because it represents a geostrategic nexus of threats facing the US: terrorism, Iran and it’s power projection into the region, and Russia and Great Power competition. Stroul disagreed with the notion that the conflict is over, suggesting that it is only entering a new phase. Stroul emphasized that since the Trump/Erdogan phone call there is no longer the same trust between the SDF and the US. This will lead to major consequences in the region.
All three panelists emphasized that refugees are not going to return to Syria at present despite Erodgan’s plan. Van Wilgenburg added that most of the refugees in Turkey that Erdogan is referring to are actually from Aleppo and other more western cities in Syria. They will not want to be relocated to northeastern Syria.
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Pompeo is a failure
Here is Secretary of State Pompeo in an interview with Mary Louise Kelly of NPR that demonstrates unequivocally his unfitness for office:
First he defends withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or Iran nuclear deal), which has led inexorably to Iran acquiring more of the materials required for nuclear weapons. In self-defense, he simply asserts “we’ll stop them,” with no evidence whatsoever. That’s because there is none.
Then he declares himself happy with the Administration’s Ukraine policy, which he claims the State Department controls, and says he has defended every single State Department official. This despite the fact that he has not defended several officials who testified in Congress and that Rudy Giuliani was conducting Ukraine policy outside State Department channels.
In any event, listen to the end, since Kelly then reports on a subsequent conversation with the Secretary, in which he berates her for asking about Ukraine in ways that are simply unacceptable, even if unsurprising. No one should expect this Administration to show even minimal respect for a media professional. It prefers the hacks at Fox News who do its bidding.
Pompeo, again not surprisingly, also has bigoted views on Muslims and counts right-wing extremists among his greatest admirers. That may seem obscure or irrelevant to many Americans, but stop a moment to consider how the 1.8 billion Muslims on earth look at a country that has a bigot as Secretary of State.
The simple fact is that Pompeo is not qualified to lead American foreign policy, which is failing in the most important challenges he faces. In addition to precipitating Iran’s return to pursuit of nuclear weapons, the Administration is presiding over a stunning array of failures:
- North Korea continues to produce nuclear weapons and improve its missiles.
- Venezuela’s President Maduro continues in power.
- Russia continues to occupy a good slice of Ukraine.
- Iran and Russia are winning back control of Syria for President Assad.
- Iraqis are pushing back against the presence of US troops.
- The American “deal of the century” for Israel and Palestine stands no chance of acceptance by the Palestinians.
- The trade war with China has been suspended with few gains, in order to provide American farmers some relief before the 2020 election.
I could go on, but the overall picture is clear: “America First” foreign policy has failed, often because it has amounted to “America Alone.” Our major European allies (that’s now France and Germany, with the UK out of the European Union) are no longer cooperating voluntarily with the US. They can do better withholding cooperation and only giving in when they can get something in return from a transactional president. A few weaker reeds like Poland, Hungary, Italy as well as post-Brexit Britain may be more on board with this Administration, but mainly because of their own nationalist domestic politics. The sense of shared mission to make the world safer for democracy has evaporated. Its now every country for itself.
Lots of us, including me, thought Pompeo might be a relative success compared to his disastrous predecessor, Rex Tillerson. But succeeding as Secretary of State in an administration as wrong-headed about the world as this one just isn’t possible. It will take a decade or more to rebuild US influence in the world once Trump is out of office. Two decades or more if he wins a second term.
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