Tag: US
Peace Picks| March 29- April 4
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, upcoming events are only available via live-streaming.
- Live Webcast: Big Brother: Internet Age Surveillance and Censorship in the Middle East| March 30, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Post-9/11, concerns over governmental stability, political extremism, and terrorism drove a surge in security-minded surveillance worldwide. Following the regional diffusion of social media and the Arab Spring a decade later, the pendulum in the Middle East swung back towards individual liberty and privacy. Today, the tension between these two poles is tighter than ever, as cutting-edge and intrusive surveillance programs in China and Singapore have proven effective if not essential to tracking and thwarting the spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic.
MEI is pleased to announce a panel which will seek to address several questions around censorship and surveillance in the Middle East: What purposes do they intend to serve, and are they effective? What are the excesses and human implications of these practices? Can censorship and surveillance play a responsible role in containing disinformation and thwarting disease, or are they doomed to be abused by the powers that be? And what will the future of these technologies look like in the region, as the age of interconnectedness allows governments to learn from one another, for better or worse?
Speakers:
Marc Owen Jones: Assistant professor, Hamad bin Khalifa University
Sahar Khamis: Associate professor, University of Maryland
Raed Labassi: Technologist and researcher, Amnesty International
Mohammad Soliman: Non-resident scholar, MEI
Michael Sexton (Moderator): Fellow and director of the Cybersecurity Initiative, MEI
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: The Gaza Strip| March 31, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Tania Hary: Executive director, Gisha-Legal Center for Freedom of Movement
Dr. Ghada Al Jadba : Chief of Health Programme in the Gaza Strip, UNRWA
Omar Shaban: Founder of director, PalThink for Strategic Studies
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: The West Bank and East Jerusalem| April 1, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Tareq Baconi: Analyst for Israel/Palestine and Economics of Conflict, International Crisis Group
Jessica Montell: Executive director, HaMoked
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: Crisis Upon Crisis: The Geopolitical & Economic Implications of the Pandemic| April 1, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 12:30 PM | Carnegie Middle East Center | Register Here
With over 530,000 infections and 25,000 deaths worldwide, COVID-19, the disease caused by the fast-spreading new coronavirus, has caused global havoc. Beyond the devastating human toll, this pandemic has caused global supply and demand shocks, economic turmoil, and financial market collapse, with the likely onset of a global recession. Oil prices have plummeted as pandemic-related policies, including global travel restrictions, have decreased demand. Measures to contain the pandemic have hurt key sectors such as tourism and disrupted production, manufacturing, and trade, leading to significant job losses. For the Middle East and North Africa—especially fragile and conflict-ridden countries such as Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Libya—the virus has become a major near-term challenge. Before the virus struck, many countries in the region were already facing significant economic and political challenges, including crumbling healthcare systems. Today, there are those that are incapable of providing necessary stimulus packages to their economies.
In this broader context, what are the prospects for global economic and financial systems in the coming months? What implications will the coronavirus have on the geopolitics and economics of the Middle East and North Africa? Similarly, how are other regions reacting, for instance Latin America? What are the available policy options to address the economic and financial fallout of the pandemic?
Speakers:
Jihad Azour is the director of the Middle East and Central Asia Department at the International Monetary Fund.
Amer Bisat is the managing director at Blackrock and a former senior economist at the International Monetary Fund.
Moisés Naím is a distinguished fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where his research focuses on international economics and global politics.
Maha Yahya is the director of the Carnegie Middle East Center.
- Live Webcast: Unemployment Insurance during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Reducing the Impact of this Economic Downturn| April 1, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | Brookings Institution | Register Here
The COVID-19 pandemic, along with the critical public health measures taken to resist it, has already resulted in millions of workers being laid off and families threatened with financial ruin. Fortunately, the unemployment insurance (UI) system serves as the first line of defense for laid off workers. However, as state and federal policymakers continue to move forward with substantial changes to UI to bolster its effectiveness, important policy questions arise: What is different about this crisis that necessitates UI reform? What do time-limited reforms aim to accomplish? What can we reasonably expect the UI system to do for workers and the economy?
Speakers:
Katharine Abraham: Director, Maryland Center for Economics and Policy; Professor, Survey Methodology, Professor, Economics, The University of Maryland
Arindajit Dube: Professor, Department of Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst
Susan N. Houseman: Vice-President and Director of Research, Upjohn Institute for Employment Research
Ryan Nunn: Policy Director, The Hamilton Project, Fellow, Economics Studies, The Brookings Institution
Jay Shambaugh (Moderator): Director, The Hamilton Project, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, The Brookings Institution
- Live Webcast: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine: Israel| April 2, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the Foundation for Middle East Peace (FMEP) are pleased to host a webinar series: COVID-19 and the Healthcare Systems in Israel/Palestine. nations around the globe, the COVID-19 crisis is both creating new challenges and exacerbating existing ones. This is especially true in Israel-Palestine, where Israelis and Palestinians live in close proximity, all under overarching Israeli authority but under regimes that afford them separate and grossly unequal access to health services.
In this context, the webinar series, moderated by MEI’s Khaled Elgindy and FMEP’s Lara Friedman, will examine how the COVID-19 crisis is impacting the very different and yet highly interconnected environments in Israel-Palestine, highlighting expert voices on the ground.
Speakers:
Henriette Chacar: Editor and reporter, +972 Magazine
Ran Goldstein: Executive director, Physicians for Human Rights-Israel
Khaled Elgindy (Co-host): Senior fellow and Director of Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs, MEI
Lara Friedman (Co-host): President, FMEP
- Live Webcast: Biological Warfare and Pandemics in the Middle East: Confronting a Growing Crisis| April 2, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The global outbreak of COVID-19 has highlighted the necessity for cooperation among governments in the Middle East, creating an opportunity to overcome geopolitical rivalries in an effort to contain the virus. Unfortunately, the damage of COVID-19 in the Middle East has been quick and massive. There is evidence of some information sharing and training exchanges between Israel and the West Bank, but there is a much greater disparity in information sharing between Israel and the rest of the Arab world.
Regional cooperation efforts for containing COVID-19 can be a roadmap for an approach to counter bioterrorism and biological warfare in the region. Although experts have historically agreed that the threat of biological warfare in the region is low, advances in technology drastically reduce the cost and time of developing biological weapons. Groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have expressed an interest in acquiring biological weapons, creating a looming threat for regional security.
Speakers:
Jessica Bell: Senior program officer, Global Biological Policy and Programs, Nuclear Threat Initiative
Asha George: Executive director, Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense
Chen Kane: Director, Middle East Nonproliferation Program, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies
Bilal Saab (Moderator): Senior Fellow and Director of the Defense and Security Program Middle East Institute
- Live Webcast: The Effects of the Coronavirus Outbreak on Marinalized Communities | April 2, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 3:45 PM | Brookings Institution | Register Here
As the coronavirus outbreak rapidly spreads, existing social and economic inequalities in society have been exposed and exacerbated. State and local governments across the country, on the advice of public health officials, have shuttered businesses of all types and implemented other social distancing recommendations. Such measures assume a certain basic level of affluence, which many in low-income and vulnerable communities do not have and as a result, millions of people have lost their jobs.
On Thursday, April 2, Governance Studies at Brookings will host a webinar discussion to address how the coronavirus pandemic is impacting low-income and vulnerable communities. Panelists will discuss what measures officials can take to protect marginalized communities as the country continues to fight the virus.
Speakers:
Rashawn Ray (Moderator): David M. Rubenstein Fellow, Governance Studies
Camille Busette: Senior Fellow, Economic Studies, Governance Studies, Metropolitan Policy Program; Director, Race, Prosperity, and Inclusion Initiative
Makada Henry-Nickie: Fellow, Governance Studies
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Peace Picks| March 16-22
Notice: Due to recent public health concerns, most of the upcoming events are cancelled or postponed, except a few that will only be available via live-streaming.
Virtual Event—How to deter Russian aggression in an election year: Legislative options| March 16, 2020 | 12:30 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Please join the Atlantic Council via Zoom on March 16th at 12:30 p.m. for a timely event on how to deter Russian interference in the upcoming US presidential elections.
The head of the Atlantic Council’s Economic Sanctions Initiative, Ambassador Daniel Fried, will present a paper that assesses Congress’ options, in particular the DASKA and DETER sanctions bills, to dissuade Russian aggression in an election year.
Our speakers will evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed legislative options, outline current risks, and discuss potential challenges for the private sector in implementing additional Russia sanctions. The event will now be completely virtual, please register for the conversation here. Your understanding and cooperation is greatly appreciated.
Speakers:
Richard Sawaya: Vice President, USA Engage, National Foreign Trade Council
Cari N. Stinebower: Partner, Winston & Strawn LLP
Graham Brookie: Director and Managing Editor, Digital Forensic Research Lab, Atlantic Council
Ambassador Daniel Fried: Weiser Family Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council
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Live Stream Event: Strategic National Security Space: FY 2021 Budget and Policy Forum | March 17, 2020 | 9:15 AM – 12:15 PM | CSIS | Register Here
Please join the CSIS Aerospace Security Project and Defense Budget Analysis Program on Tuesday, March 17, for the webcast “Strategic National Security Space: FY 2021 Budget and Policy Forum.” This year’s event will address the dynamic national security space landscape including the release of the Trump administration’s Fiscal Year 2021 budget, the standup of the United States Space Force and reorganization of national security space, and the evolving threat environment.
Speakers:
Mr. Stephen Kitay: Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy
Major General Clint Crosier: Director, Space Force Planning, Office of the Chief of Space Operations, U.S. Space Force
Dr. Derek Tournear: Director, Space Development Agency
Dr. Morgan Dwyer: Deputy Director for Policy Analysis, CSIS Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group
Todd Harrison: Director, CSIS Aerospace Security; Director, CSIS Defense Budget Analysis Program
Mike Tierney: Velos
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Peace Picks|February 2-8
- Syria’s Tragedy, Our Lessons| March 2, 2020 | 3:00 PM – 4:00 PM | CSIS | Register Here
The CSIS Middle East Program and Humanitarian Agenda are pleased to host David Miliband, President and CEO of the International Rescue Committee, to discuss the current crisis in Idlib, the dangerous lessons of war, and how Syria could serve as a model for future conflicts.
Jacob Kurtzer, Interim Director of the CSIS Humanitarian Agenda, will provide welcome remarks to open the discussion. Mr. Miliband’s keynote address will be followed by a Q&A moderated by Jon B. Alterman, Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy, and Director of the Middle East Program.
Speakers:
David Miliband: President and CEO, International Rescue Committee
Jon B. Alterman: Senior Vice President, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security; Director of the Middle East Program
Jacob Kurtzer: Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
- Leveraging a Moment of Change: Pathways to a Sustainable U.S.-Pakistan Relationship | March 3, 2020 | 12:30 PM – 2:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
The relationship between Pakistan and the United States has never been easy or stable, and in recent years has come under increasing strain. Yet both countries have a vital stake in the maintenance of a working relationship. Several factors have complicated prospects for bilateral cooperation in the past, leading to a growing strategic divergence in how both countries view one another, and their interests vis-a-vis other regional players. Perhaps the biggest shortcoming in the Pakistan-US relationship has been that both sides have tried to address the issues between them without common frames of reference, resulting in differences of perceptions and policies.
An expert group of academics, policy analysts, and retired government officials have recently convened at the Middle East institute to study the Pakistan-US relationship. The product of their discussions is a paper that explores a range of ideas and concrete proposals designed to move the relationship in a positive and stable direction.
Speakers:
Syed Mohammad Ali: Adjunct professor, Georgetown and Johns Hopkins
Ambassador (ret.) Gerald M. Feierstein: Senior Vice President, MEI
Ambassador Ali Jehangir Siddiqui: Pakistani Ambassador at Large for Foreign Investment
Marvin G. Weinbaum: Director of Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies, MEI
- Crash Landing into Freedom: The Stories of Former North Korean Soldiers| March 4, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Join Hudson Institute for an event with two former North Korean soldiers as they discuss their escapes from the hermit kingdom. U.S. Representative Ted Yoho will present keynote remarks on the need for greater freedom across Asia.
Weeks before critical diplomatic talks between the Trump administration and North Korea commenced, OH Cheong Seong successfully attempted a daring escape within the heavily guarded demilitarized zone. Under gunfire, Seong, a driver in a North Korean military police unit, drove a truck to the border and crossed by foot into South Korea. For the first time in public in the United States, he will discuss his escape and the factors that compelled him to flee.
LEE Unggil, a former solider in North Korea’s 11th Corps Special Forces who escaped while completing university studies, will explain the plight of North Korean soldiers and the motivations for those seeking freedom.
Panelists will give insight into what life is like inside the country and describe why so many North Koreans, if given the choice, would choose freedom.
Speakers:
Dr. Patrick M. Cronin: Asia-Pacific Security Chair, Hudson Institute
Colonel Steve Lee, U.S. Army (Ret.): Senior Vice President, Korea Defense Veterans Associations
OH Cheong Song: Former Driver in the North Korean Panmunjom Military Police Unit of the Operations Bureau
LEE Unggil: Former Member of the North Korean People’s Army 11th Corps Special Forces and Member of the North Korean People’s Liberation Front
Congressman Ted Yoho: U.S. Representative, Florida’s 3rd District, House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Nonproliferation
- The Iran Crisis and American Energy Security| March 4, 2020 | 12:00 PM – 1:30 PM | CATO Institute | Register Here
On January 8, President Trump addressed the nation following an Iranian missile attack on U.S. positions in Iraq. Buried in his speech was a fascinating aside. The president argued that:
“…America has achieved energy independence … these historic accomplishments changed our strategic priorities … we are now the number-one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world. We are independent and we do not need Middle East oil.”
Yet the Trump administration’s own policies in the region contradict his statement. Since 2016, the United States has doubled down on its military presence in the Middle East, adding more than 14,000 troops to a region already full of U.S. bases. And the Trump administration has pursued a maximum-pressure campaign against Iran that uses oil-focused sanctions in an attempt to weaken Iran’s regional influence and perhaps even topple the regime.
The Iran crisis thus highlights the changing relationship between U.S. foreign policy and global oil markets. If — as the president suggests — the United States is indeed energy independent, why have our strategic priorities not changed? Why do we remain overcommitted to the Middle East? And what can sanctions on Iran tell us about the increasing weaponization of global markets by U.S. policymakers?
Speakers:
Rosemary Kelanic: Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame
Ellan Wald: President, Transversal Consulting
Joshua Rovner: Associate Professor, School of International Service, American University
Emma Ashford: Research Fellow in Defense and Foreign Policy Studies, CATO Institute
- Why Should the US Care about Ukraine | March 4, 2020 | 2:30 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
Throughout the recent impeachment hearings, witness after witness claimed that support for Ukraine is obviously in US national interests, without clearly explaining why. In response, on December 22, 2019, The National Interest published an article by George Beebe in which he compared current US policy toward Ukraine to the “groupthink” that led to disastrous US policies in Vietnam. Ambassador John Herbst responded to Beebe, arguing that the United States has vital strategic interests in maintaining a strong partnership with Ukraine.
For the first time, Ambassador John Herbst and Dr. Alina Polyakova, President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis, face off against George Beebe, Vice President and Director of Studies, Center for National Interest, and Dr. Will Ruger, Vice President, Research and Policy, Charles Koch Institute and Vice President for Research, Charles Koch Foundation, in a debate. Melinda Haring, Deputy Director, Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council and Jacob Heilbrunn, Editor, The National Interest, will co-moderate the discussion.
Speakers:
Ambassador John E. Herbst: Former US Ambassador to Ukraine; Director of Eurasia Center, Atlantic Council
Dr. Alina Polyakova: President and CEO, Center for European Policy Analysis
George Beebe: Vice President ad Director of Studies, Center for National Interest
Dr. Will Ruger: Vice President, Research and Policy, Charles Koch Institute
- The Outlook on US-China Relations| March 4, 2020 | 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM | Johns Hopkins University SAIS | Register Here
This panel discussion will examine American policy, trade, Taiwan, and other key factors affecting the US-China relations.
Speakers:
Ambassador J. Stapleton Roy: Former U.S. Ambassador to China (1991-1995), USCPF Board Member
Ambassador Craig Allen: President, US-China Business Council, Former U.S. Ambassador to Brunei (2014-2018)
Robert Sutter: Professor of Practice of International Affairs, Elliott School, GWU
David J. Keegan: Former Deputy Director of the American Institute in Taiwan. Former Director, Office of Taiwan Policy, Bureau of Eastern Asian and Pacific Affairs
- US-Brazil Economic Relations: The Path to A Trade Agreement | March 5, 2020 | 9:30 AM -12:00 PM| Atlantic Council | Register Here
The United States and Brazil have long been critical commercial partners. Now, as the United States and Brazil double down on delivering on a stronger bilateral agenda, the moment is ripe to help guide discussions on practical next steps.
What actions can Brazil and the US pursue in the short term to achieve deeper collaboration? How will those pave the way for greater growth and prosperity in both countries?
The event will also mark the launch of the report “US-Brazil Trade and FDI: Enhancing the Bilateral Economic Relationship,” authored by Ken Hyatt and Lisa Schineller on the US side and Abrão Neto and Daniel Godinho on the Brazil side.
Speakers:
The Hon. Darin Lahood: US Representative (R-IL), US Congress
Sergio Segovia: President, Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency, ApexBrasil
Nestor Forster: Appointed Ambassador of Brazil to the US
Joe Semsar: Acting Under Secretary of Commerce for International Trade, International Trade Administration, US Department of Commerce
Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva: Secretary of Bilateral and Regional Negotiations in the Americas, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Brazil
Maria Cameron: Deputy Director, Office of Latin America and the Caribbean, International Trade Administration, US Department of Commerce
Kevin O’Reilly: Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs, US Department of State
Lisa Schroeter: Global Director of Trade & Investment Policy, Dow Chemical Company
Lisa Schineller: Managing Director, Latin American Sovereign Ratings, S&P Global Ratings
Abrão Neto: Executive Vice President, AmCham Brasil; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council; Former Secretary of Foreign Trade, Brazil’s Ministry of Development, Industry and Foreign Trade
Kenneth Hyatt: Senior Advisor, Albright Stonebridge Group; Former Acting Under Secretary and Deputy Under Secretary for International Trade, US Department of Commerce
Jason Marczak: Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
Roberta Braga: Associate Director, Adrienne Arsht Latin America Center, Atlantic Council
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Peace Picks|February 17-23
Understanding China’s Economic Slowdown: Countering Belt and Road and Beijing’s Plans to Dominate Global Innovation| February 18, 2020 | 11:30 AM – 1:30 PM | Hudson Institute | Register Here
Amid a time of open challenges to the United States for strategic and economic leadership in the Indo-Pacific by General Secretary Xi Jinping, China’s economic growth is at its slowest pace since 1992. Through the development of political and economic plans such as the Belt and Road Initiative and Made in China 2025, China is attempting to set global development standards while simultaneously increasing other nations’ dependence on China’s technologies and its financial and developmental practices.
What is the significance of the Chinese economic slowdown and its implication for the U.S. and its allies? How can we accurately assess Chinese strengths and weaknesses, and how do we more effectively counter Beijing’s policies and actions that undermine U.S. and allied interests?
Join Hudson Institute for a conversation with experts on what China’s attempts to redefine development standards and practices means for the United States in the era of great power competition. The event will draw on John Lee’s recent report, China’s Economic Slowdown: Root Causes, Beijing’s Response and Strategic Implications for the U.S. and Allies and his upcoming report, Ambition and Overreach: Countering One Belt One Road and Beijing’s Plans to Dominate Global Innovation.
Speakers:
Patrick Cronin: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Thomas Duesterberg: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
Nicholas Lardy: Anthony M. Solomon Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute
John Lee: Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute
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Censorship and Self-Censorship in Russia| February 18, 2020 | 3:30 PM – 5:00 PM | Wilson Center | Register Here
State control on information and media and aggressive pressure on journalists seeking to maintain their independence are critical elements of the modern Russian state. Although the Russian constitution has an article expressly prohibiting censorship, in reality censorship is a constant factor in the life of the Russian media. Censorship is carried out both directly and indirectly by state pressure and through self-censorship by journalists. In partnership with IREX, the Kennan Institute will host three well-known Russian publicists, analysts, and commentators, Konstantin Sonin, Konstantin Eggert, and Gleb Cherkasov, to discuss censorship and self-censorship in Russia and its role in Russian society.
Speakers:
Konstantin Sonin: John Dewey Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy
Konstantin Eggert: Independent journalist, political analysts and communication consultant
Gleb Cherkasov: Journalist; Former Deputy Editor-in-Chief, Kommersant
Sergey Parkhomenko: Senior Advisor, Jounalist, “Echo of Moscow” Radio; Former Editor-in-Chief, Itogi, Vokrug Sveta
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Ending Our Endless War in Afghanistan: Washington Perspectives on a U.S.-Taliban Agreement| February 18, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:15 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
After over a year of intensive talks, press reports indicate that an official agreement between the U.S. and Taliban is imminent. The agreement reportedly begins with an immediate reduction in violence by all sides, followed by the signing of a U.S.-Taliban agreement. This would lead to intra-Afghan peace negotiations, accompanied by a gradual withdrawal of U.S. troops. Implementing and verifying each step in this process will require meticulous diplomacy, but this reported agreement could mark a major turning point in the effort to end the war in Afghanistan.
Speakers:
The Honorable Stephen J. Hadley: Chair, Board of Directors, U.S. Institute of Peace; former National Security Advisor
The Honorable Michele Flournoy: Co-Founder and Managing Partner, WestExec Advisors
Ambassador Douglas Lute: Senior Fellow, Harvard Kennedy School Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs; former U.S. Ambassador to NATO
Ambassador Richard Olson: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace; former U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan
Scott Smith: Senior Advisor, U.S. Institute of Peace
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Conservative Nationalism in the Age of Trump| February 20, 2020 | 10:30 AM – 12:00 PM | Carnegie Endowment | Register Here
The driving force of nationalism within the Republican party is squarely in the spotlight, with the U.S. 2020 elections in sight and questions of how the United States will approach diplomatic, economic, and military issues in the balance. In his new book, Age of Iron: On Conservative Nationalism, Colin Dueck examines the strengths and weaknesses of President Trump’s foreign policy and the overarching role of conservative nationalism in the past, present, and future of U.S. foreign policy. He will be joined in conversation by Danielle Pletka and Richard Fontaine, with Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis as moderator.
Speakers:
Colin Dueck is a professor in the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University and a non-resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute
Richard Fontaine is the chief executive officer of the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).
Danielle Pletka is a senior fellow in foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where she focuses on U.S. foreign policy generally and the Middle East specifically.
Ashley J. Tellis holds the Tata Chair for Strategic Affairs and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specializing in international security and U.S. foreign and defense policy with a special focus on Asia and the Indian subcontinent.
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Bridging strategies: Infrastructure efforts in Southeast Asia in an era of great power competition| February 20, 2020 | 12:00 PM | Atlantic Council | Register Here
As the geographical heart of the Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia will play a critical role in determining the region’s political, military, and economic trajectory for decades to come. As a rapidly growing region home to more than 655 million people, Southeast Asia has become a priority destination for US and Japanese infrastructure investment in the Indo-Pacific, as well as Chinese infrastructure efforts under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
How do these regional infrastructure projects fit into intensifying strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific? Are the new G20 Principles for Quality Infrastructure compatible or competitive with China’s BRI? How can the US, Japan, and other likeminded allies and partners best operationalize these principles in the region? Ultimately, what are the geopolitical and security implications of the evolving infrastructure investment landscape across the Indo-Pacific?
The Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security works to develop sustainable, nonpartisan strategies to address the most important security challenges facing the United States and the world. The Center honors General Brent Scowcroft’s legacy of service and embodies his ethos of nonpartisan commitment to the cause of security, support for US leadership in cooperation with allies and partners, and dedication to the mentorship of the next generation of leaders.
Speakers:
Mr. Bart W. Edes: Representative of the North American Office, Asian Development Bank
Mr. Jonathan Hillman: Senior Fellow, Simon Chair in Political Economy, and Director, Reconnecting Asia Project, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Mr. Makoto Lyori: Visiting Fellow, Asia Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Dr. Miyeon Oh: Asia Security Initiative, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Atlantic Council
Ms. Shannon Tiezzi: Editor-in-Chief, The Diplomat
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The Impact of the Conflict on Human Rights in Syria| February 20, 2020 | 4:30 PM – 6:00 PM | Johns Hopkins University | Register Here
The Commissioners of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic (Chair Professor Paulo Pinheiro, Commissioner Karen Abuzayd and Commissioner Hanny Megally) will discuss recent conflict dynamics in Syria and their impact on the human rights situation. In this context, the Commission will discuss their recently published report on child rights violations.
Speakers:
Paulo Sergio Pinheiro: A Chairman of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry for Syria
Karen Koning Abuzayd: A Commissioner of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry for Syria
Hanny Megally: A senior fellow at the New York University Center on International Cooperation
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The Crisis in Syria’s Idlib| February 21, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:00 PM | Middle East Institute | Register Here
Nearly 600,000 people have been displaced in northwestern Syria in the last two months, in what is now the biggest humanitarian crisis in nine years of war. The brutal military assault being conducted by the Syrian government, Russia and Iran shows no signs of abating and has in recent weeks sparked direct and deadly clashes between Syrian and Turkish troops. Hospitals and schools continue to be struck from the air, IDP camps have reached capacity and humanitarian agencies are warning of an impending humanitarian disaster.
Since the Syrian government and its allies began an offensive on Idlib in the Spring of 2019, approximately 25% of the opposition-controlled territory has fallen – roughly 75% still remains. Amid this ongoing crisis and unprecedented levels of civilian displacement and human suffering, the international community appears to have been rendered powerless. The Middle East Institute is pleased to host a panel discussion on the situation in Idlib, in order to discuss the nature of the crisis and the international response; the geopolitical dynamics at play; concerns over terrorism; and what possible paths might exist to resolve the situation.
Speakers:
Zaher Sahloul: President and Founder, MedGlobal
Elizabeth Tsurkov: Fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute
Charles Lister: Senior Fellow and Director of the Countering Terrorism and Extremism Program, MEI
Alexander Marquardt: Senior national correspondent, CNN
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What is fueling MENA fires
“Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners have transferred American-made weapons to al Qaeda-linked fighters, hardline Salafi militias, and other factions waging war in the Middle East, putting US national security interests in jeopardy.”
On January 27, the New York Center for Foreign Policy Affairs hosted a panel discussion on the topic of “Betrayed by an Ally: U.S. National Security in the Middle East” at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. The discussion included three speakers: Bassima Alghussein, the CEO of Alghussein Global Strategies and a former White House Appointed Congressional Advisor, Jeff Stacey, a national security and global development consultant, contributor to the New York Times, and former State Department official, and Edward P. Joseph, a broadcast and print commentator, US foreign policy professional, and veteran. The discussion was moderated by Joel Rubin, a national security, foreign policy, and congressional expert, a former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Legislative Affairs, and the current Jewish Outreach Director for the Bernie Sanders Presidential Campaign.
Saudi Arabia
Alghussein claims that $8 billion in US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE have exposed three facts:
- The weapons fell into the wrong hands because they were captured by the Houthis in Yemen.
- Saudi Arabia conducts human rights violations with US weapons in Yemen.
- US arms sales to Saudi Arabia fuel an arms race between the Saudis and the Iranians.
Alghussein believes that arm sales without restriction may threaten US interests. When the Trump administration enabled Riyadh’s blockade against Qatar, Doha moved closer to Tehran without fulfilling any Saudi demands.
Iran
Joseph is more concerned with Iran’s behavior. Its nuclear program is based more on internal motives than external fears. The Saudis have shown restraint. They didn’t retaliate when the Iranians attacked oil facilities in September. If Iran can develop a nuclear program based on fears of Israeli strikes, why can’t Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Jordan develop their own nuclear programs? Joseph believes it is Iran that creates its own security risks by taking a provocative position.
Stacey reminded that Iran favored the JCPOA, which brought it with economic and diplomatic benefits. He suggested that the US should remove sanctions against Iran, which constrain moderates in the parliament. The assassination of Soleimani was unwise and unjustified because it strengthened Iranian political hardliners. He noted different reactions to the assassinations of Soleimani and al Muhandis between Iraq and Iran. Things are still under control in Iraq, which has maintained strategic relations with the US. In Iran, the killing of Soleimani and the downing of a Ukrainian airliner have aroused anti-regime protests and galvanized cries of “death to the dictators.”
Libya
Joseph emphasized the complexity of the conflict in Libya, which includes regional, ideological, identity, and tribal factors as well as external drivers. Russia and Turkey intended to establish an agreement similar to the Astana process for Syria by gathering domestic and external oppositions in Moscow earlier this month. That failed, because the Government of National Accord sought a ceasefire, but General Haftar did not.
The Libya summit January 19 in Berlin succeeded in bringing outside actors and Libyan rivals together. Joseph points out that the Berlin Summit was subsequent to previous Italy-Libya and France-Libya meetings. While Italy aims to maintain control over its former colony and ensure Libya’s security, France has competing economic interests. Italy and France will continue to compete in Libya.
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Turkey sandwich: between NATO and Russia
On Wednesday December 4, the Middle East Institute and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation held their 10th Annual Conference on Turkey. The conference brought together policymakers and experts to discuss the challenges Turkey faces domestically and its relations with the Middle East and the West. The conference consisted of three panel discussions. The third panel was entitled Turkey between NATO and Russia. The panelists consisted of Ivan Safranchuk, Associate Research Scholar & Lecturer, MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies, Yale University, Aydin Selcen, Columnist, GazeteDuvar & DuvarEnglish, General (ret.) Joseph Votel, Distinguished Senior Fellow on National Security, MEI, and Jim Zanotti, Specialist, Middle Eastern Affairs, Congressional Research Service. The panel was moderated by Barbara Slavin, Director of Future of Iran Initiative, Atlantic Council. Here are the key takeaways from the panel.
- Turkey’s Future in NATO
Recent actions by Turkey in Syria against the Kurds and the purchase of S400 anti-aircraft batteries from Russia exemplify how far formally shared values and interests between Turkey and NATO have diverged. Votel said he is unsure if the West can look at Turkey as a reliable NATO ally anymore. They are working against the coalition’s efforts in Syria and their overall military and political support in NATO has waned in recent years.
As for the purchase of S400s, Votel argued the Turks are looking to free of themselves of dependence on the West for weaponry. Russia wants to sell the air defense system to Turkey in order to drive a wedge between NATO allies. If they are successful, Russia could slowly undermine the Alliance and decrease its capabilities and global reach. Turkey is slowly shifting from a friend to a “frenemy.”
The US has historically led the Alliance too address problems, but Washington is no longer playing that role. NATO needs to discuss the options for future Turkish involvement in the organization. However, Selcen stated that NATO does not have set mechanisms to kick a member out. Additionally, he argued that Turkey’s geographic strategic importance raises its value to remain a part of the organization. NATO will have to pursue other measures.
- Turkish – Russian Relations
The developing relationship between Turkey and Russia is not a recent phenomenon. It started in the 1990s. Anger towards the US is a partial explanation for increased relations between the two countries, but it does not fully explain it.
Safranchuk argued that before the explosion of globalization, Russia and Turkey had to sacrifice part of traditions and culture in order to develop their economies via modernization, which depended on their relationships with Europe. In order to become more powerful, Moscow and Ankara had to become more Western. Otherwise they faced stagnant growth but could maintain their cultural traditions. Now Russia and Turkey can be powerful without Europe and they, along with China, would like to help each other to be successful.
Selcen agreed and stated that Erdogan is emulating Putin’s style of governing by shifting to more authoritarian rule. Despite historical and current grievances, Turkey and Russia continue to grow closer. On the purchase of the S400s, Selcen explained that the Turkish air defense was based on the strength of its air force to deter attacks, but now it has grown weaker and they must pursue a proper air defense system. However, the S400 batteries can only offer certain protective bubbles around Ankara or the presidential palace.
- Turkey’s Objectives in Syria
Turkey is in its consolidation phase in Syria. Votel notes it may not have gotten everything it wanted, but Ankara continues to fortify the territory in Syria it gained during the past several years. There continues to be violence between the Turkish military and Turkish-backed armed groups, and the one hand, and the Kurds on the other, but the expansion of Turkish control in northeast Syria has stopped for now.
Selcen said that Turkey has had a feeling of encirclement since the end of World War I. Ankara is pursuing an assertive foreign policy in Syria to establish its position there, but Selcen thinks there are better and cheaper ways to pursue foreign policy goals and secure border security. There is increasing friction between Russia and Turkey in Syria because of their divergent goals, but Safranchuk stated that Russia is not opposed to Erdogan securing Kurdish areas. Moscow sees the necessity to secure national borders and national security.
- Washington and Ankara
Congress and the White House have differing opinions on Turkey, particularly following the October offensive against Syrian Kurds. Zanotti said that it is too early to tell if Congress has definitively turned away from Turkey. There is still fence sitting by a number of Republican Senators on legislation to impose CAATSA (Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions in response to the S400 arms deal with Russia. It took Congress 8 months to pass CAATSA against China after they purchased Russian military platforms and it has only been 4 months since Turkey began receiving the defense batteries. The arms deal is set to finalize in March 2020, so the Republican majority Senate may be allowing things to play out as other strategies are attempted to dissuade Ankara from mobilizing the Russian defense system.
Anti-American sentiments have increased throughout Turkey and cut across the entire political spectrum. US-Turkey relations are arguably at their nadir and a desire to push away from the West is evident throughout the population. Selcen stated that traditional diplomacy does not exist between Washington and Ankara anymore. Relations rely on President Trump’s and President Erdogan’s interactions. A phase of “diplomacy without diplomats” has begun. According to Selcen, the Turkish Foreign Ministry has been sidelined in important decision making. He thinks this approach is working for now but is unsure if it will continue to do so in the future.
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