Tag: Venezuela
Obamas let loose, but Harris needs more
Michelle Obama led the assault:
Barack Obama delivered the coup de grâce:
Rhetorical skills however are not all that matters in determining who the next president will be. Harris has already demonstrated that she is the same league with the Obamas when it comes to projecting hope and skewering Donald Trump. She is more than competitive with him in both the national polls and the battleground states. What could trip her up?
Harris’ hurdles
Trump is trying to make Harris out to be an extremist and a communist. That’s not going to work on the merits, though I suppose his repetition of the charges will help solidify his base. More likely, one of these issues will prove problematic:
- Immigration: Trump’s claims to have shut down the border are bogus. In addition he blocked a bipartisan effort in Congress to mitigate the problem of illegal immigration. But there is a big difference between Democrats and Republicans on immigration. Most voters do not however favor the mass expulsion that Trump advocates.
- The economy: Growth has held up well under Biden, but inflation has pretty much erased wage gains and higher interest rates have cut into home affordability. The number of jobs has exploded, but unemployment is up marginally due to more people entering the work force. Still, many job markets are still tight and immigrant workers are needed.
- Crime: Violent crime rates are back down to pre-pandemic levels, but public perception of crime is up, especially among Republicans. Crime in the US is largely a local and state issue, not a Federal one. But it has nevertheless often played a role in presidential elections. Harris’ record as a prosecutor should lend her at least some credibility on crime.
What doesn’t matter
Barring a disaster in Ukraine, foreign policy won’t matter much. All American politicians are now belligerent on China. Trump’s tariff proposals would be expensive for American consumers, but the Democrats haven’t been able to exploit that angle since they have kept his previous round of tariff increases. The Democrats are split on Gaza, but Trump has no way of exploiting the split to gain Arab American votes in Michigan because of his own over-the-top pro-Israel record. Venezuelan American votes count in Florida, but Biden doesn’t seem to be able to do what they want: chase the illegitimate President Maduro out of the country.
Ads will flood the airwaves between now and November 5, but there is little evidence they have a lot of impact. I suppose they would if one side or the other desists, but they won’t. Celebrity endorsements don’t seem critical either. I still hope Taylor Swift, who might be the exception, comes down hard for Harris.
Ground game does matter
“Ground game,” the term of art for retail politicking to convince voters one-to-one and get them to the polls, does matter. It is expensive and difficult to organize. Biden by all accounts had a big advantage over Trump in both money and organization in the battleground states. Harris has inherited that advantage. She now needs to ensure that her campaign uses it effectively. The Trump campaign is working hard to blunt her offensive by limiting who votes and whether their votes are counted.
I have no doubt Walz tonight and Harris tomorrow night will prove themselves worthy at the DNC. He knows how to inspire a team. She knows how to lead one toward the goal. Lots can still happen in the days, weeks, and months remaining. But there is a good chance America will restore itself and end the Trump plague once and for all.
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Stevenson’s army, February 11
– Opposition wins in Pakistan.
– Senate resumes voting today on foreign aid package
– WSJ reports Hamas tunnels beneath UNRWA HQ
– Egypt threatens end of Camp David accords
– WaPo has background on Abraham Accords
– Venezuela builds troops on Guyana border
– Trump questions NATO treaty, encourages Putin
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My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, February 2
– David Ignatius and Tom Friedman each describe US hopes and plans for the Middle East
– Biden imposed sanctions on some West Bank settlers
– NYT says Netanyahu faces a dilemma
-WSJ sees looming conflict with Iran
– US intelligence says Iran doesn’t fully control proxies
– WaPo explains Ukraine civ-mil tensions
– NYT says Trump tariffs hurt jobs but pleased voters
– AP says DEA ran covert op in Venezuela
– CSIS has video and transcript of Israel discussion including Prof Cohen
The excellent D Brief has this: Lastly, “Dr. Strangelove” was released 60 years ago this week. Read a chronology of how the film came to be (from All the Right Movies), and an examination of what it got right (from Eric Schlosser).
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, September 26
– Peter Baker sees a divided America. Note this point:
In an increasingly tribal society, Americans describe their differences more personally. Since Mr. Trump’s election in 2016, according to the Pew Research Center, the share of Democrats who see Republicans as immoral has grown from 35 percent to 63 percent while 72 percent of Republicans say the same about Democrats, up from 47 percent. In 1960, about 4 percent of Americans said they would be displeased if their child married someone from the other party. By 2020, that had grown to nearly four in 10. Indeed, only about 4 percent of all marriages today are between a Republican and a Democrat.
– WSJ says US warned Iran in advance of suicide bombers.
– WSJ says US will meet with China about Red Sea– Vox sees more war going on.- Analyst says Iraq is falling apart
– FP questions Biden’s Venezuela policy
– FP reports European reactions to Trump
-WaPo says US foreign military training has inconsistencies
– Europe has different models of conscription
– Think tank reports on Chinese FDI in Latin America
– Experts see North Korea readying for military action
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 29
– Sarah Binder explains what happened/didn’t happen in Congress this year
– Axios has word of latest Bibi-Biden phone call
– USA Today has DOD report on extremism in the military2
– Here’s Maine Secretary of State ruling barring Trump from ballot
– UK sends warship to Guyana, Venezuela responds
– WSJ revisits Marine transformation
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, December 16
– I strongly agree with Phil Zelikow that the US is losing its capacity to do things in foreign policy. We have ideas but can’t turn them into operations.
– IISS has its latest Armed Conflict Survey
– Lawfare says Congress is working on classification laws
– Guyana and Venezuela make nice
– CNN says US criticizes Israel for Lebanese attacks
– Fred Kaplan says Hamas is gaining support
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I republish here, with occasional videos of my choice. To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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