Tag: Venezuela
Stevenson’s army, January 28
–Britain won’t ban Huawei.
– Congress may punish such action.
– WSJ says Putin outfoxed US in Venezuela.
– NYT says Russia is outmaneuvering US in Africa, too.
– Israelis report US is building bases in Iraq close to Iran.
-House Democrats warm to resuming earmarks.
– FP calls O’Brien the anti-Bolton.
-Conservative Max Boot says Pompeo is worse than Tillerson.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Peace Picks | January 27- 31
Demolishing Democracy: How Annexationism is Bulldozing Israeli Institutions| January 27, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM | The Middle East Institute | Register Here
Around the world today, peoples are contending with the “democratic recession” and the rise of illiberalism. In Israel, these phenomena are inextricably linked to and driven by the occupation, settlements, and the quest for annexation.
At the outset of 2020, Israeli annexationists — egged on by fellow travelers in the Trump Administration and the U.S. Jewish and Evangelical communities — appear to be on the cusp of achieving their goal of formal annexation of the West Bank by Israel. The current situation did not arise overnight. Rather, it is the result of a decades-long drive to transform the territories occupied by Israel in the 1967 War into an integral part of sovereign Israel. This drive has inflicted serious damage on the institutions that comprise and are supposed to defend Israeli democracy.
Today, Israel’s democratic institutions are under ever-growing threat, including attacks and delegitimization from Israeli political leaders. With a final push to formal annexation looming, the integrity and viability of these institutions – and with them, the future of Israeli democracy – hang in the balance.
At this critical juncture, Yehuda and Debra will discuss how this happened, what it would take to change course, and what all of this means for Israel’s future and the future of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Speakers
Yehuda Shaul served in the IDF from 2001-2004 in the West Bank. He founded Breaking the Silence in 2004 with a group of fellow veterans.
Debra Shushan Director of Government Affairs at J Street.
Betrayed by an Ally: U.S. National Security in the Middle East | January 27, 2020 | 1:00 – 2:30 PM | Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies | Register Here
Saudi Arabia and its coalition partners have transferred American-made weapons to al Qaeda-linked fighters, hardline Salafi militias, and other factions waging war in the Middle East, putting U.S. national security interests in jeopardy.
Our expert panel will break down the variables surrounding this topic.
Speakers:
Joel Rubin: Jewish Outreach Director for the Bernie Sanders Presidential Campaign
Bassima Alghussein: CEO, Alghussein Global Strategies, Former White House Appointed Congressional Advisor
Jeff Stacey: Contributor to the New York Times
Edward P. Joseph: Broadcast and print commentator, US Foreign Policy Professional, U.S. Veteran
Economic Sanctions: Assessing their use and implications for U.S. Foreign Policy | January 27, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 3:30 PM | Brookings Institute | Register Here
In the nearly two decades since the 9/11 attacks, the United States has expanded its use of economic sanctions to address a broad range of national security and foreign policy objectives. Through the innovative use of financial penalties and greater integration in the global banking system, sanctions have become the go-to tool of economic warfare. They are widely applicable, scalable, and can be comprehensive or targeted. Yet, with Washington’s increasing reliance on these policy instruments, serious questions remain about their long-term effectiveness and their potential to produce unintended consequences.
For sanctions to achieve strategic objectives they must be adapted to a new era of geopolitical competition and coordinated with other forms of diplomacy. To help make sense of the design, implementation, and implications of sanctions, Foreign Policy at Brookings will host a panel of experts with a combined background in the use of sanctions in Latin America, Europe, North Korea, and the Middle East.
Bruce Jones, vice president and director of the Foreign Policy program, will kick off the event with introductory remarks. He will be followed by a panel discussion with Brookings Senior Fellows Suzanne Maloney, Jung Pak, Ted Piccone, and Tom Wright, moderated by Jim Goldgeier, Robert Bosch senior visiting fellow. The session will conclude with questions from the audience.
Speakers:
Bruce Jones Vice President and Director at Brookings Institute
Suzanne Maloney Deputy Director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institute
Jung H. Pak Senior Fellow at the SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies at Brookings Institute
On the Horizon: What to Expect in 2020 Wilson Center Experts Weigh In| January 27, 2020 | 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM | The Wilson Center | Register Here
In a world marked by complexity, volatility, and a din of competing agendas, the Wilson Center is the nation’s indispensable resource for decoding today’s most pressing foreign policy challenges. Leveraging its global expertise and perspective, award-winning scholarship and analysis, and a fiercely nonpartisan spirit, the Center informs actionable ideas for policymakers across the political spectrum.
Join Wilson Center experts for a global roundup of what’s on the horizon in 2020—from Russia, to Asia, to the ongoing regional trade negotiations—and what economic, political, and security trends are emerging regionally and throughout the world.
Speakers:
Jane Harman Director, President, and CEO, Wilson Center
Cynthia J. Arnson Director, Latin American Program
Robert Daly Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States
Abraham Denmark Director, Asia Program
James Dickmeyer Acting Director, The Canada Institute
Jean H. Lee Director Hyundai Motor-Korea Foundation Center for Korean History and Public Policy
Robert S. Litwak Senior Vice President and Director of International Security Studies
Michael Morrow Senior Diplomatic Fellow
William E. Pomeranz Deputy Director, Kennan Institute
Matthew Rojansky Director, Kennan Institute
Michael Sfraga Director, Global Risk and Resilience Program and Director, Polar Institute
Duncan Wood Director, Mexico Institute
Russia in the Middle East at a Time of Growing Tensions: A View from Israel | January 28, 2020 | 4:00 PM – 5:30 PM | Woodrow Wilson Center | Register Here
As the targeted killing of Qassem Suleimani is reshaping power alignments in the Middle East, Russia is determined not to let its influence in the region weaken. From Russian weapons deliveries to Turkey and Iran, to the civilian nuclear reactor the Kremlin is helping Egypt build, to Vladimir Putin’s recent surprise visit to Syria: all of these are meant to send a message of the Kremlin’s intention to remain a player in the region. What are Russia’s strategic objectives in this moment of change? Is Russia looking to fill the power vacuum left by a weakening Iran? Two top Israeli analysts offer their perspectives.
Speakers
Major General (Res.) Amos Gilead Executive Director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), IDC Herzliya; Chairman of the IPS Annual Herzliya Conference Series
Ksenia Svetlova Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya
Middle East in 2020: A Challenge for World Peace? | January 29, 2020 | 11:00 PM – 12:30 PM | Turkish Heritage Organization | Register Here
Please join us for a timely panel to assess the recent security developments in the Middle East and implications for the world.
Speakers
Moderator, Isil Acehan Visiting Professor, George Mason University
Elena Pokalova Chair, College of International Security Affairs, National Defense University
James Carafano Vice President, Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for National Security and Foreign Policy, E.W. Richardson Fellow, Heritage Foundation
The Future of Multilateral Peacebuilding | January 29, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | United States Institute of Peace | Register Here
In an era of rapid technological change and fraying traditional alliances, the international order that has overseen one of the most peaceful periods in human history is facing unprecedented challenges. While member states grapple with the utility and relevance of the United Nations in the 21st century, global fragility, conflict, and violence continue to escalate—exacting an enormous human toll. The imperative for collective global action to resolve the world’s most intractable conflicts has never been greater.
In light of these trends, it’s critical that the community of actors committed to global peace and security take stock of the successes, challenges, and innovations in multilateral conflict prevention, mediation, and peacebuilding.
Join USIP, The Stimson Center, Alliance for Peacebuilding, and the United Nations Association of the National Capital Area for a timely discussion on the future of the multilateral system and the potential for practical, innovative reform with U.N. Undersecretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs Rosemary DiCarlo, the highest-ranking American currently serving at the United Nations and the first woman to hold the position. As a precursor to the U.N.’s 75th anniversary in 2020, this event will consider how the U.N. has modernized its conflict prevention and management resources to address the changing nature of conflict; how reforms of the U.N.’s political and peacebuilding architecture have improved its effectiveness, as well as what steps are still needed; and what practical actions U.S. and international policymakers can take to support more durable multilateral peacebuilding efforts. Join the conversation with #DiCarloUSIP.
Speakers
Honorable Nancy Lindborg President and CEO U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Rosemary DiCarlo Undersecretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, United Nations
Ms. Victoria Holt Vice President, Stimson Center
Ambassador Jonathan Moore Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of International Organization Affairs, U.S. Department of State
Ambassador Lynn Pascoe Board Member, United Nations Association of the National Capital Area; former UN Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs
Ms. Uzra Zeya President and CEO, Alliance for Peacebuilding
Ambassador George Moose Vice Chairman of the Board, U.S. Institute of Peace; Advisory Council Member, United Nations Association of the National Capital Area
Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula: Different Ways, Same Goal | January 31, 2020 | 10:00 AM – 12:00 PM | Stimson Center | Register Here
The issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula faces diverse challenges, as the US and North Korea are driven by their own strategic goals and perspectives on how to achieve them. Further complicating this issue are the different interpretations and policy solutions by South Korean and US experts. In this time of diplomatic impasse, join experts from the Stimson Center and Korea Nuclear Policy Society for this timely discussion on how to move forward in the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula.
Speakers
Jenny Town Stimson Fellow and the Managing Editor of Stimson’s 38 North
Sang Hyun Lee Senior Researcher at the Sejong Institute in South Korea, and serves as President of the Korea Nuclear Policy Society (KNPS).
Yong-Sup Han Former Vice President and Professor of the Korea National Defense University and a former director of the Research Institute of National Security Affairs.
Il Soon Hwang Chair Professor of Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST) and an Emeritus Professor in the School of Energy Systems Engineering at Seoul National University.
Clint Work Stimson Fellow, jointly appointed to its Security for a New Century program and 38 North
Humanitarian Aid to Venezuela: The Need for a Global Response | January 31, 2020 | 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM | Center for Strategic and International Studies | Register Here
Compared to other countries in crisis such as Syria, South Sudan, and Myanmar, Venezuela receives significantly less humanitarian aid from the international community. Venezuela’s humanitarian crisis is yet to be a significant donor priority, despite levels of displacement that rival Syria’s (currently more than 15 percent of Venezuela’s entire population), and disease and hunger levels comparable to those found in sub-Saharan Africa.
This event will feature a high level keynote speech (to be announced). Following the keynote, a panel of CSIS experts will discuss the importance of humanitarian assistance from multiple angles, including the mitigation of destabilizing factors in the region, addressing increasing flows of refugees and forced migrants to other countries, the health implications of this ongoing crisis on the population, and the steps the international community can take to assist Venezuela.
Speakers
Moises Rendon Director, the Future of Venezuela Initiative and Fellow in the Americas Program
Katherine Bliss Senior Fellow, Global Health Policy Center
Erol Yayboke Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Project on Prosperity and Development
Jacob Kurtzer Deputy Director and Senior Fellow, Humanitarian Agenda
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Pompeo is a failure
Here is Secretary of State Pompeo in an interview with Mary Louise Kelly of NPR that demonstrates unequivocally his unfitness for office:
First he defends withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA or Iran nuclear deal), which has led inexorably to Iran acquiring more of the materials required for nuclear weapons. In self-defense, he simply asserts “we’ll stop them,” with no evidence whatsoever. That’s because there is none.
Then he declares himself happy with the Administration’s Ukraine policy, which he claims the State Department controls, and says he has defended every single State Department official. This despite the fact that he has not defended several officials who testified in Congress and that Rudy Giuliani was conducting Ukraine policy outside State Department channels.
In any event, listen to the end, since Kelly then reports on a subsequent conversation with the Secretary, in which he berates her for asking about Ukraine in ways that are simply unacceptable, even if unsurprising. No one should expect this Administration to show even minimal respect for a media professional. It prefers the hacks at Fox News who do its bidding.
Pompeo, again not surprisingly, also has bigoted views on Muslims and counts right-wing extremists among his greatest admirers. That may seem obscure or irrelevant to many Americans, but stop a moment to consider how the 1.8 billion Muslims on earth look at a country that has a bigot as Secretary of State.
The simple fact is that Pompeo is not qualified to lead American foreign policy, which is failing in the most important challenges he faces. In addition to precipitating Iran’s return to pursuit of nuclear weapons, the Administration is presiding over a stunning array of failures:
- North Korea continues to produce nuclear weapons and improve its missiles.
- Venezuela’s President Maduro continues in power.
- Russia continues to occupy a good slice of Ukraine.
- Iran and Russia are winning back control of Syria for President Assad.
- Iraqis are pushing back against the presence of US troops.
- The American “deal of the century” for Israel and Palestine stands no chance of acceptance by the Palestinians.
- The trade war with China has been suspended with few gains, in order to provide American farmers some relief before the 2020 election.
I could go on, but the overall picture is clear: “America First” foreign policy has failed, often because it has amounted to “America Alone.” Our major European allies (that’s now France and Germany, with the UK out of the European Union) are no longer cooperating voluntarily with the US. They can do better withholding cooperation and only giving in when they can get something in return from a transactional president. A few weaker reeds like Poland, Hungary, Italy as well as post-Brexit Britain may be more on board with this Administration, but mainly because of their own nationalist domestic politics. The sense of shared mission to make the world safer for democracy has evaporated. Its now every country for itself.
Lots of us, including me, thought Pompeo might be a relative success compared to his disastrous predecessor, Rex Tillerson. But succeeding as Secretary of State in an administration as wrong-headed about the world as this one just isn’t possible. It will take a decade or more to rebuild US influence in the world once Trump is out of office. Two decades or more if he wins a second term.
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Guilty as charged
The opening of the trial proceedings in the Senate has already produced an obvious result: the President has no defense against the charge that he tried to use US government aid to gain a personal political advantage over a potential rival, then obstructed Congress in its investigation. White House lawyers are not claiming he didn’t try to extort the Ukrainians to announce an investigation of Joe Biden, only that he was free to do it and to block witnesses and documents the House of Representatives requested.
This amounts to the inverse of nolo contendere, in which a defendant doesn’t admit guilt, but accepts punishment. Trump is admitting the facts, but the Republican-controlled Senate is protecting him from the penalty provided in the Constitution, removal from office. It has the power under the Constitution to do that and is exercising it with vigor, preventing even submission of documentary evidence and witness testimony to the wrongdoing.
The big question is how the country will react to a President who believes he can abuse power as much he wants and suffer no consequence. According to the first poll taken since the articles of impeachment were delivered to the Senate, a thin majority of Americans now believes he should be removed from office, a wider margin believes the charges against him are true, and two-thirds believe the proceedings in the Senate should include testimony from witnesses.
If confirmed, those results would be a substantial deviation from the trend line in recent months, which is basically flat. The partisan divide is still wide and Republicans in the Senate continue to believe that their prospects in the November election are more threatened by Trump-allied challengers in the primaries than by Democrats at the polls. None of the supposed Republican moderates in the Senate have budged from the majority on the many Democratic proposals to bring witnesses and documents into the process.
The Republicans have an option if the going gets rough. They could decide to defenestrate Trump and put Vice President Pence in his place. More genuinely conservative than Trump on social and religious issues, Pence could be relied on to appoint judges who would please the anti-abortion, pro-Christian, Republican base as well as continue the anti-immigration crusade (double meaning intended) Trump has conducted. What Pence lacks is even a rudimentary personality, never mind charisma.
The Democrats are meanwhile still engaged in the fratricidal warfare of the presidential primaries. For now the presidential hopefuls seem mostly incapable of refocusing their attacks on Trump rather than each other. That isn’t good, but the next month or two may well sort out who the candidate will be. If that doesn’t happen, the Democrats could go to the mid-July convention in Milwaukee without a candidate. A “brokered” convention would not be a good thing.
But the biggest single factor in the next election will be the economy. Trump’s bragging at Davos this week was based on falsehoods. The Obama expansion has continued, but growth is now slowing, though not dramatically yet. The Trump tax cut did little to stimulate the economy but a great deal to balloon the government deficit. The trade deal with China failed to correct most of the structural issues that have given the US such a large bilateral deficit. The trade deal with Mexico made desirable updates. Hourly wages have begun to perk up, but inequality continues its long rise.
The picture is worse on the national security front. The fights Trump has picked with North Korea, Venezuela, and Iran have produced no good results for the US. He has nothing to show for his lovefest with Russian President Putin, who still sits on a big piece of Ukraine. The Israel/Palestine peace plan is a bust. The NATO allies despise the President and are holding their breath for him to leave office. He ignores Latin America and Africa (to their benefit more than likely) while talking tough on China but doing precious little.
If there were professor who could judge the Trump Administration on its economic, social, and national security merits, it would get an F. He is not only guilty as charged, but incompetent as well.
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Stevenson’s army, January 14
– WSJ has a review of the US-China trade talks, culminating in the agreement due to be signed tomorrow. As a sweetener,Treasury de-listed China as a currency manipulator yesterday.
– WaPo notes how many tariffs will stay in place.
-NYT says Maduro lets rural Venezuela suffer as he protects his urban supporters.
– European powers try to keep JCPOA alive.
– WaPo columnist complains that media let retired 4-stars talk about defense issues without disclosing their financial ties.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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Stevenson’s army, January 6
-WaPo says SecState Pompeo has been pushing for months to escalate against Iran and kill Suleimani.
-SecDef Esper drastically limited group involved in Suleimani planning.
– US military has halted counter-ISIS operations.
– Speaker Pelsoi says House will vote on war powers measure on Iran similar to one offered by Sen. Tim Kaine [D-Va].
– Iran has announced end of compliance with Iran nuclear deal but will allow IAEA inspections to continue.
– Maduro seized control of national assembly by blocking entry of pro-Guaido members.
– Yahoo News has long story on intelligence community’s problems protecting its spies in a digital age.
– WaPo’s media columnist, Margaret Sullivan, has suggestions for those not already in the far-right echo chamber to follow what matters there. Among other sites she recommends The RIghting and RightRichter. Surf away.
My SAIS colleague Charlie Stevenson distributes this almost daily news digest of foreign/defense/national security policy to “Stevenson’s army” via Googlegroups. I plan to republish here. If you want to get it directly, To get Stevenson’s army by email, send a blank email (no subject or text in the body) to stevensons-army+subscribe@googlegroups.com. You’ll get an email confirming your join request. Click “Join This Group” and follow the instructions to join. Once you have joined, you can adjust your email delivery preferences (if you want every email or a digest of the emails).
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