Tag: Yemen
The world according to CFR
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) survey of prevention priorities for 2014 is out today. Crowdsourced, it is pretty much the definition of elite conventional wisdom. Pundits of all stripes contribute.
The top tier includes contingencies with high impact and moderate likelihood (intensification of the Syrian civil war, a cyberattack on critical US infrastructure, attacks on the Iranian nuclear program or evidence of nuclear weapons intent, a mass casualty terrorist attack on the US or an ally, or a severe North Korean crisis) as well as those with moderate impact and high likelihood (in a word “instability” in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, Iraq or Jordan). None merited the designation high impact and high likelihood, though many of us might have suggested Syria, Iraq and Pakistan for that category. Read more
For those who couldn’t make it
I gave the last of my pre-holiday talks on Righting the Balance yesterday at the Middle East Institute. Here is the latest iteration of the talking points I’ve been using, admittedly with occasional departures to tell a story or respond to a skeptical look.
1. Thank you for that kind introduction. It is truly an honor to present at MEI, which welcomed me as a scholar after I moved to SAIS from USIP three years ago and provided a steady flow of interns who did essential fact-checking, footnoting and commenting on the manuscript.
2. As I am going to say some harsh things about the State Department and USAID, and even suggest they be abolished in favor of a single Foreign Office, I would like to emphasize from the first that I have enormous respect for the Foreign Service and the devotion of its officers to pursuing America’s interests abroad. I feel the same way about the US military.
3. But I don’t think the Foreign Service is well served by the institutions that hire, pay and deploy our diplomats and aid workers. And I don’t think our military should be called upon to make up for civilian deficiencies.
4. My book, Righting the Balance, is aimed at correcting those imbalances. But it does not start there. Read more
Peace picks, December 9-13
D.C. is back in full-swing before the start of the holidays. Here are this week’s peace and conflict events:
1. Inaugural PeaceGame 2013 — Chart the Best Possible Peace for Syria
U.S. Institute of Peace
December 9 8:00am – December 10 12:30pm
Governments around the world regularly devote enormous resources to conducting “war games.” On December 9 and 10, the U.S. Institute of Peace (USIP) and The FP Group (FP) will conduct the inaugural PeaceGame, with a focus on “the best possible peace for Syria.” With one game in the U.S. and another in the Middle East, the semi-annual PeaceGames will bring together the leading minds in national security policy, international affairs, academia, business, and media to “game” out how we can achieve peace in Syria. USIP and FP intend for the game to redefine how leaders think about conflict resolution and the possibility of peace.
The full event will be webcast live beginning at 9:00am ET on December 9, 2013 atwww.usip.org/webcasts. Join the conversation on Twitter with #PeaceGame.
Peace picks, October 28 – November 1
Out early this week:
1. Impact of Donor Counter-Terrorism Measures on Principled Humanitarian Action
Monday, October 28, 2013 | 10:00 AM – 11:30 AM
CSIS – 1616 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC
Introductory Remarks by: Sam Worthington , President & CEO, InterAction
Panel Discussion:
Valerie Amos Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, United Nations
Jan Egeland Secretary General, Norwegian Refugee Council
Ambassador Daniel Fried Coordinator of Sanctions Policy, U.S. State Department
Ambassador William Garvelink Senior Adviser, CSIS Project on U.S. Leadership in Development and Former U.S. Ambassador to the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Moderated by: Daniel Runde Director of the Project on Prosperity and Development and William A. Schreyer Chair in Global Analysis, CSIS
Please RSVP to PPD@csis.org.
Despite the global attention to counter-terrorism and human rights issues, the impact of counter-terrorism measures on humanitarian action has not been studied in detail. To address this gap, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the Norwegian Refugee Council released a report in July 2013 entitled the Study of the Impact of Donor Counter-Terrorism Measures on Principled Humanitarian Action. The report takes a comprehensive look at how counter-terror measures are impacting the ability of humanitarian agencies to respond to emergencies, especially in countries on the front lines of the war on terror, and makes recommendations on how to reconcile these measures with the humanitarian imperative. Join us for a conversation with representatives from the United Nations, the Norwegian Refugee Council, and the United States Government as they discuss the impact of these restrictions in countries such as Afghanistan, Somalia, and the West Bank and Gaza, and in countries of possible future impact, including Mali, Pakistan, and Yemen.
2. WOMEN AND PEACEBUILDING: WOMEN’S ROLES IN POLITICAL TRANSITIONS IN YEMEN AND THE REGION
Monday, October 28, 2013 2:30 – 4:00 p.m.
National Democratic Institute 8th Floor Board Room 455 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, D.C.
And streaming online at: www.ndi.org/live
With Amat Al Alim Alsoswa, Delegate, Yemen National Dialogue Conference and former Minister of Human Rights
Susan Markham, Director, Women’s Political Participation, NDI
Summer Lopez, Regional Coordinator for the Middle East (Acting) Center of Excellence on Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance, USAID
The importance of including women in peace negotiations, transitional governments and long-term political processes is increasingly recognized by national and international bodies as critical for the stability of emerging democracies. In each stage of a country’s transition, whether entrenched in conflict or moving forward in reconciliation, there are opportunities available for women’s inclusion that can have a profound effect on the successful outcome of a country’s transition of power, peace and security.
This discussion will draw upon Yemen’s National Dialogue process and examples from ongoing transitions in the Middle East and North Africa to highlight challenges and lessons learned for promoting women’s participation in peace negotiations and political transitions.
Please RSVP via this webform.
3. Political Turmoil, Human Costs: Reflections on the Kashmir Conflict
3:00 PM – 4:30 PM EST
REGISTER TO ATTEND
With incidents along their disputed border still relatively common, India and Pakistan’s decades-old quarrel over Kashmir shows little hope of subsiding. Join Kashmir-born author and journalist Rahul Pandita for a discussion of the conflict and his new memoir of his childhood in and exile from Kashmir, Our Moon Has Blood Clots(Random House India, 2013).
Pandita will offer a rare perspective on the dispute, combining political analysis with the personal experience of growing up as part of a religious minority group in one of the world’s most unstable regions. Carnegie’s Ashley J. Tellis will moderate.
RAHUL PANDITA
Rahul Pandita is a journalist and author based in New Delhi. He was the 2010 recipient of the International Red Cross award for conflict reporting, and has written extensively about conflict in Iraq, Sri Lanka, and Kashmir.
ASHLEY J. TELLIS
Ashley J. Tellis is a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specializing in international security, defense, and Asian strategic issues.
4. New Leadership in Tehran: Time for Rapprochement?
DATE / TIME Monday, October 28, 2013 / 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM
LOCATION Elliott School of International Affairs, SMPA 1957 E Street, NW, Washington, D.C. 20052 (map)
SPEAKER(S) John Limbert, Dr. Shireen Hunter
Ambassador John Limbert, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Iran
Dr. Shireen Hunter, Visiting Fellow, Center for Christian Muslim Understanding and Director, Carnegie Endowment Project on reformist Islam
The George Washington University International Affairs Society and the American Iranian Council will be hosting ‘New Leadership in Iran: Time for Rapprochement?’, a conference that will identify the prospects and mechanisms for a breakthrough in U.S.-Iran relations. The conference aims to build upon the momentum created by the election of moderate Dr. Hassan Rouhani as Iranian President, President Obama’s engagement policy with Tehran and the recent events in Geneva and at the United Nations General Assembly to generate ideas for a possible settlement of the nuclear dossier.
RSVP: bit.ly/GThrgi
Sponsored by the GW International Affairs Society and the American Iranian Council
5. Regional Cooperation: An Imperative for Transatlantic Defense
October 29, 2013 – 1:30 pm
1030 15th Street, NW, 12th Floor
Washington, DC
An address and discussion with
H.E. Carl Haglund
Minster of Defense
Republic of Finland
Introduced and Moderated by
Damon Wilson
Executive Vice President
Atlantic Council
Please join the Atlantic Council for an address by, and discussion with, Finnish Minister of Defense Carl Haglund, who will detail the importance of regional cooperation for transatlantic security.
Building on the successes of Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO), Minister Haglund will make a case for NATO member and partner countries to follow a similar framework to sustain present-day interoperability levels and enhance military capabilities. NORDEFCO’s five members states—Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden—use regional networking to increase their interoperability via cross-border cooperation, build-up and maintain necessary military capabilities, and provide cost-effective contributions to international efforts.
Representatives of the press are welcome, and all the proceedings of this event are on-the-record.
When you arrive, please use the the West Tower elevators.
Business attire is requested.
If you encounter problems with the registration process, please contact us.
Bios
H.E. Carl Haglund has been the minister of defense of Finland since July 5, 2012. Previously, he served as the party leader of the Swedish People’s Party, and from 2009 to 2012 he was a member of the European Parliament. In 2008, he assumed the position of state secretary for the minister of culture and sport, and in 2007 he was an adviser to the ministers of the Swedish People’s Party.
6. Iraq’s Transition: Remarks by Iraqi Prime Minister H.E. Mr. Noori al-Maliki
USIP – Thursday, October 31, 2013 10:00am
The United States Institute of Peace will host Iraqi Prime Minister H.E. Mr. Noori al-Maliki for public remarks and a discussion on U.S.-Iraq relations, and the current challenges facing Iraq and the region.
Webcast: This event will be webcast live beginning at 10:00am ET on October 31.
Iraq has made significant progress since the last of U.S. troops left the country in December 2011, but continues to face serious challenges. Iraq’s economy became stronger, provincial and regional elections were organized, and the country has made steady steps toward regaining its regional and international stature. At the same time, the country is struggling with high levels of violence and other spillover effects from Syria, as it tries to hold national elections in 2014 and find a workable common vision of governance.
To discuss these matters and more, kindly join us for what promises to be an interesting event at 10:00-11:30am on October 31, 2013 at USIP’s Headquarters in Washington D.C. Follow the conversation on Twitter with @USIP, @IraqiEmbassyUSA, and #USIPIraq.
Agenda:
Jim Marshall, Opening Remarks and Moderator President, U.S. Institute of Peace
Ambassador Beth Jones, Introductory Remarks Acting Assistant Secretary of State – Near Eastern Affairs
H.E. Noori al-Maliki, Keynote Remarks Prime Minister of Republic of Iraq
Moderated discussion
7. The Way Forward in Afghanistan: Embracing Opportunity in the Midst of Transition
Thursday October 31, 2013 12:15-1:45pm
New America Foundation
Since 2001, the United States has been heavily engaged in Afghanistan. The failures of this effort have been well documented, but what has often been overlooked are the immense gains that have been achieved.
As Afghanistan enters a turbulent transition period, including presidential elections in April 2014, the ongoing transition from U.S.-led to Afghan-led security operations, and the draw down of U.S. troops, it is important that U.S. policymakers keep the full picture in mind.
Calls for the United States to walk away from Afghanistan ignore the progress that has been made, and such a result would be catastrophic for the people of Afghanistan. It would also call into question the last 12 years of U.S.efforts in the country.
The New America Foundation and the Alliance in Support of the Afghan People are pleased to invite you to a discussion about the prospects for Afghanistan’s future,in light of past progress and upcoming challenges.
Featured Speakers:
Haseeb Humayoon
Member of Afghanistan 1400
Clare Lockhart
President, Institute for State Effectiveness
David Sedney
Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Afghanistan,
Pakistan, and Central Asia
Eleanor Smeal
President, Feminist Majority Foundation
Moderator:
Senior Fellow, New America Foundation
To RSVP for the event, click on the red button or go to the event page:
http://www.newamerica.net/events/2013/the_way_forward_in_afghanistan
When nothing fails so much as success
The New York Times front page yesterday featured reports by Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch criticizing US drone attacks in Pakistan (in particular North Waziristan) and Yemen, respectively. At the same time, the Washington Post published Linda Robinson’s op/ed claiming that they will be used relatively less in the future. It seems we have come to prefer on-the-ground special forces raids, whether we conduct them or our partners do.
It is nice to know that after hundreds of drone strikes abroad we’ve come to realize that there is nothing antiseptic about them. No matter how precise, they cannot be 100% accurate. They kill people we don’t intend to kill. That is what the Amnesty and HRW reports are focused on: the immediate threat to civilian non-combatants. The two reports document meticulously that we are not only hitting our intended terrorist targets. We are hitting other people too, sometimes in ways that breach the laws of war and declared US policy. Those are major concerns for Amnesty and HRW, which argue their case–as one would expect–mainly on legal and human rights grounds.
Those are not my major concerns, much as I deplore the loss of innocent lives. Conventional military means would also kill people other than those targeted, likely many more than drones do. Nor can I regret that drones save American servicepeople from harm. That’s what most advances in military technology do–enable us to kill more of the enemy while preventing them from killing more of us. War is not a pretty, or a glorious, business. Read more
The gulf with the Gulf
Yesterday was Gulf day. I spent part of the morning reading Christopher Davidson, who thinks the Gulf monarchies are headed for collapse due to internal challenges, their need for Western support, Iran’s growing power and their own disunity. Then I turned to Greg Gause, who attributes their resilience to the oil-greased coalitions and external networks they have created to support their rule. He predicts their survival.
At lunch I ambled across the way to CSIS’s new mansion to hear Abdullah al Shayji, chair of political science at Kuwait University and unofficial Gulf spokeperson, who was much exorcised over America’s response to Iran’s “charm offensive,” which he said could not have come at a worse time. The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was already at odds with the US. The Gulf was not warned or consulted about the phone call between Iranian President Rouhani and President Obama. Saudi Arabia’s refusal to occupy the UN Security Council seat it fought hard to get was a signal of displeasure. The divergences between the GCC and the US range across the Middle East: Syria, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen, Iraq and Palestine, in addition to Iran.
On top of this, US oil and gas production is increasing. China is now a bigger oil importer than the US and gets a lot more of its supplies from the Gulf. Washington is increasingly seen as dysfunctional because of its partisan bickering. Its budget problems seem insoluble. American credibility is declining. The Gulf views the US as unreliable. Read more